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李学武, 张京朋, 赵天保, 等. 2024. 我国西北地区干湿变化特征及其未来预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 29(1): 59−74. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22097
引用本文: 李学武, 张京朋, 赵天保, 等. 2024. 我国西北地区干湿变化特征及其未来预估[J]. 气候与环境研究, 29(1): 59−74. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22097
LI Xuewu, ZHANG Jingpeng, ZHAO Tianbao, et al. 2024. Characteristics of Dry and Wet Variations in the Northwest China and Their Future Predictions [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 29 (1): 59−74. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22097
Citation: LI Xuewu, ZHANG Jingpeng, ZHAO Tianbao, et al. 2024. Characteristics of Dry and Wet Variations in the Northwest China and Their Future Predictions [J]. Climatic and Environmental Research (in Chinese), 29 (1): 59−74. doi: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2023.22097

我国西北地区干湿变化特征及其未来预估

Characteristics of Dry and Wet Variations in the Northwest China and Their Future Predictions

  • 摘要: 基于降水量、土壤湿度、径流量和干旱指数等多种气象要素,系统分析研究了近60年我国西北地区的干湿特征演变规律,并利用最新的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 (CMIP6)多模式模拟结果对该区域未来干湿变化特征进行了预估。结果显示:近60年来我国西北地区的降水量、土壤湿度和径流量均呈现出由东南向西北递减的空间分布格局;冷季的降水量和径流量明显低于暖季,但土壤湿度和干旱指数在冷暖季节差异不显著。西北地区年降水量、土壤湿度和干旱指数均呈现显著增加的趋势,增幅分别为5.07 mm/10 a、3.89 mm/10 a和0.26 /10 a,特别是2000年后增加的趋势更显著,且变湿幅度最大主要出现在西北西部;而径流量在2000年之前呈现明显下降的趋势,而2000年后显著增加。在未来气候变化情境下,21世纪中期(2031~2060年)和后期(2071~2100年)西北地区呈现出湿润化的趋势,并且21世纪后期的湿润化程度更显著,高等排放情景(SSP5-8.5)比中等排放情景(SSP2-4.5)下湿润化更明显。本研究可为我国西北地区气候变化的影响评估提供参考依据。

     

    Abstract: Based on various meteorological elements, such as precipitation, soil moisture, runoff and drought index, the evolution of dry and wet characteristics in Northwest China over the recent 60 years is systematically analyzed and studied, and the future changes are forecasted using the latest multimodel simulation results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program Phase 6 (CMIP6). The results show that the precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff in Northwest China in the recent 60 years showed a spatially decreasing pattern from southeast to northwest. Precipitation and runoff in the cold season are significantly lower than those in the warm season, but the differences in soil moisture and drought index in the cold and warm seasons are not significant. The annual precipitation, soil moisture, and drought index in Northwest China showed significant increasing trends, with increasing rates of 5.07 mm/10 a, 3.89 mm/10 a, and 0.26 /10 a, respectively, and especially after 2000, the increasing trends became increasingly obvious. The largest humidification range mainly occurred in the western part of Northwest China. The humidification range in the warm season was higher than that in the cold season. However, the runoff showed an obvious downward trend before 2000 and increased significantly after 2000. In the future climate change scenario, the northwest region shows an increasing trend of humidification in the middle of the 21st century (2031–2060) and the later period (2071–2100), and the degree of humidification in the later period of the 21st century is more significant. The humidification under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5) is more obvious than that under the medium-emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). The study results provide a reference for the impact assessment of climate change in Northwest China.

     

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