The Influence of Electoral Endorsements on Vote Choice in Canadian Elections

Abstract

In the final days leading up to elections, many major newspapers in Canada and around the world depart from the principle of media neutrality and openly support a particular political party. Do these overt attempts at persuasion by trusted institutions actually affect the vote choice of their readership, and are these effects felt evenly across the population? In this thesis, I examine the 2011 and 2015 Canadian federal elections using data from the 2011 Canadian Election Study and the 2015 Making Electoral Democracy Work project. I find voters to be significantly influenced by their newspaper’s endorsement in the 2015 sample, and find that this influence primarily influences those who identify with no party. Although the influence is modest in size, with the geographic concentration of newspaper readership it is potentially large enough to influence outcomes in individual ridings. Combined with my finding that newspaper endorsements are far from evenly distributed across parties, this has troubling implications for Canadian democracy.