ABSTRACT
This paper was created with the intent of expanding upon previous work, The Structural Importance of Uranium: Commodity Volatility and Sustainability. With a focus on macroeconomic implications as well as the intention to identify potentially contrary evidence to uranium's structural importance, the paper goes on to examine the inverse relationship between the uranium spot price and a basket of commodity substitutes. In line with expectations deduced from the literature, there is a lack of statistical evidence to support the idea that uranium spot price volatility can be explained by volatility in general energy markets. The model used in this paper, maintains a significant prediction accuracy on average across all events of 71.79%, with additional evidence to lend credence in goodness of fit regarding specific categories of macroeconomic events. These findings have led to the development of a basis for the continuation of research surrounding specific logistic regression forecasting methodologies in commodities markets. Onwards, the thesis of uranium as a structurally important mineral continues to lack contradictory empirical evidence. The importance of this study's niche continues to be highlighted as supply-side constraints in uranium markets manifest and energy security concerns mount amid global conflicts.
Keywords
Uranium, Logistic Regression, Commodities, Oil, Energy