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Applicability Evaluation of Provincial Precipitation Real-time Analysis Product in Beijing
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摘要: 利用自动气象站观测数据, 采用误差分析、有效降水时次占比等方法评估2022年9月—2023年8月省级降水实况分析产品在北京地区的一致性和准确性, 并从累积降水量、降水强度、逐小时降水量误差等方面对“23·7”极端降水过程进行分析。结果表明:省级降水实况分析产品在北京地区的均方根误差不足1 mm, 平均绝对偏差低于0.16 mm, 与自动气象站观测结果接近。省级降水实况分析产品误差随降水量等级增加而增大, 小雨等级降水被高估, 中雨及以上等级降水被低估;误差空间分布差异明显, 在中雨和暴雨等级下, 最大负偏差均出现在延庆区, 最大正偏差均出现在昌平区。“23·7”极端降水过程中, 省级降水实况分析产品的平均均方根误差为1.8 mm, 平均绝对偏差为0.806 mm, 降水强度与自动气象站观测随时间变化趋势一致, 较真实地反映了降水强度的变化趋势。Abstract: The national precipitation real-time analysis product is a gridded product developed using probability density matching, Bayesian model averaging, multi grid variation, optimal interpolation and other technologies by National Meteorological Information Center. It has advantages of high accuracy, high quality, and spatiotemporal continuity, and is widely used in national nowcasting forecasting operations. In September 2022, National Meteorological Information Center issues a provincial multi-source fusion real-time analysis system to promote the collaborative application of precipitation analysis in different provinces. The same core multi-source fusion algorithms for real-time precipitation analysis products are applied in this system, allowing access to additional provincial local observations. The consistency and accuracy of the provincial precipitation analysis products in Beijing from September 2022 to August 2023 are evaluated by automatic weather station observations, error analysis, effective precipitation time proportion, and other methods. "23·7" extreme precipitation event is also analyzed in terms of cumulative precipitation, precipitation intensity, and hourly precipitation error. Results show that root mean square error of the provincial precipitation analysis product is less than 1 mm, and the average absolute deviation is below 0.16 mm, which closely aligns with observations from automatic weather stations. The bias of provincial precipitation real-time analysis product increases with magnitude of precipitation. The intensity of light rain exceeds the observation, while the spatial distribution difference of bias is evident. The maximum negative deviation occurs in both moderate rain and rainstorm magnitudes of Yanqing, while the maximum positive deviation is observed at Changping. During the extreme precipitation event of "23·7", the spatial distribution of provincial precipitation real-time analysis product is largely consistent with observations from automatic weather stations. The precipitation intensity is consistent with the trend of time variation observed by automatic weather stations, with an average root mean square error of 1.8 mm and an average absolute deviation of 0.806 mm, which more accurately reflects the trend of precipitation intensity variation. Overall, the provincial precipitation real-time analysis product has high accuracy in Beijing and can reflect the spatial distribution of precipitation, but the estimate is lower than the observation in the precipitation course of local heavy rainstorm.
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图 1 2022年9月—2023年8月省级降水实况分析产品在检验站的插值结果与检验站小时降水量逐月均方根误差、平均绝对偏差和平均偏差
Fig. 1 Monthly root mean square error, mean absolute bias and mean bias of provincial precipitation real-time analysis product interpolation results to observations of all verification stations from Sep 2022 to Aug 2023
图 2 中雨和暴雨等级下检验站偏差与偏差率
Fig. 2 Bias and bias rate of all verification stations for moderate rain and rainstorm
图 3 中雨和暴雨等级下检验站偏差和偏差率空间分布
Fig. 3 Spatial distributions of bias and bias rate of all verification stations for moderate rain and rainstorm
图 4 省级降水实况分析产品在第3次和第12次降水过程的逐小时均方根误差和平均偏差
Fig. 4 Hourly root mean square error and mean bias of provincial precipitation real-time analysis product in the 3rd and the 12th precipitation courses
图 5 2023年汛期北京地区观测和省级降水实况分析产品不同日降水量和小时降水量等级的有效降水时次占比
Fig. 5 Percentage of effective precipitation hours in observation and provincial precipitation real-time analysis product for different daily precipitation and hourly precipitation classifications in Beijing in the summer of 2023
图 6 2023年7月29日20：00—8月2日07：00观测和省级降水实况分析产品的累积降水量空间分布
Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of accumulation precipitation in observation and provincial precipitation real-time analysis product from 2000 BT 29 Jul to 0700 BT 2 Aug in 2023
图 7 2023年7月29日20：00—8月2日07：00省级降水实况分析产品的逐小时均方根误差(a)、降水强度(b)及对房山新村降水量估计(c)
Fig. 7 Hourly root mean square error(a), precipitation intensity(b) and estimated precipitation at Xincun, Fangshan(c) in provincial precipitation real-time analysis product from 2000 BT 29 Jul to 0700 BT 2 Aug in 2023
表 1 不同小时降水量等级下省级降水实况分析产品的偏差与偏差率
Table 1 Bias and bias rate of provincial precipitation real-time analysis product at different hourly precipitation classifications
小时降水量等级 偏差/mm 偏差率/% 小雨(0.1~1.5 mm) 0.01 3.59 中雨(1.6~6.9 mm) -0.23 -4.54 大雨(7.0~14.9 mm) -0.68 -5.38 暴雨(15.0~29.9 mm) -1.23 -5.74 大暴雨(不低于30 mm) -1.76 -7.95 
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表 2 2023年汛期13次降水过程
Table 2 13 precipitation courses in the summer of 2023
降水过程序号 开始时间 结束时间 累积降水量/mm 持续时长/h 降水量均方根误差/mm 1 06-03T13:00 06-04T03:00 144.3 15 0.02 2 06-28T06:00 06-28T16:00 4644.8 9 0.52 3 07-03T19:00 07-04T12:00 7534.3 18 0.33 4 07-10T19:00 07-11T05:00 1670.9 11 0.39 5 07-20T17:00 07-22T20:00 32373.7 52 0.24 6 07-23T14:00 07-24T03:00 597.7 14 0.99 7 07-24T19:00 07-25T03:00 7312.0 9 0.42 8 07-27T17:00 07-28T06:00 5104.0 14 1.80 9 07-29T20:00 08-02T07:00 155530.8 84 0.04 10 08-05T20:00 08-06T04:00 79.1 9 0.21 11 08-09T16:00 08-10T08:00 433.0 17 0.31 12 08-11T09:00 08-12T08:00 7320.9 24 0.72 13 08-20T12:00 08-21T08:00 15417.4 21 0.28
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