Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Objective rapid delineation of areas at risk from block-and-ash pyroclastic flows and surges

  • Research Article
  • Published:
Bulletin of Volcanology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Assessments of pyroclastic flow (PF) hazards are commonly based on mapping of PF and surge deposits and estimations of inundation limits, and/or computer models of varying degrees of sophistication. In volcanic crises a PF hazard map may be sorely needed, but limited time, exposures, or safety aspects may preclude fieldwork, and insufficient time or baseline data may be available for reliable dynamic simulations. We have developed a statistically constrained simulation model for block-and-ash type PFs to estimate potential areas of inundation by adapting methodology from Iverson et al. (Geol Soc America Bull 110:972–984, 1998) for lahars. The predictive equations for block-and-ash PFs are calibrated with data from several volcanoes and given by A = (0.05 to 0.1)V 2/3, B = (35 to 40)V 2/3, where A is cross-sectional area of inundation, B is planimetric area and V is deposit volume. The proportionality coefficients were obtained from regression analyses and comparison of simulations to mapped deposits. The method embeds the predictive equations in a GIS program coupled with DEM topography, using the LAHARZ program of Schilling (1998). Although the method is objective and reproducible, any PF hazard zone so computed should be considered as an approximate guide only, due to uncertainties on the coefficients applicable to individual PFs, the authenticity of DEM details, and the volume of future collapses. The statistical uncertainty of the predictive equations, which imply a factor of two or more in predicting A or B for a specified V, is superposed on the uncertainty of forecasting V for the next PF to descend a particular valley. Multiple inundation zones, produced by simulations using a selected range of volumes, partly accommodate these uncertainties. The resulting maps show graphically that PF inundation potentials are highest nearest volcano sources and along valley thalwegs, and diminish with distance from source and lateral distance from thalweg. The model does not explicitly consider dynamic behavior, which can be important. Ash-cloud surge impact limits must be extended beyond PF hazard zones and we provide several approaches to do this. The method has been used to supply PF and surge hazard maps in two crises: Merapi 2006; and Montserrat 2006–2007.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

We’re sorry, something doesn't seem to be working properly.

Please try refreshing the page. If that doesn't work, please contact support so we can address the problem.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abdurachman EK, Bourdier JL, Voight B (2000) Nuées ardentes of November 22, 1994 at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 100:345–361

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Aspinall WP, Loughlin SC, Michael FV, Miller AD, Norton GE, Rowley KC, Sparks RSJ, Young SR (2002) The Montserrat Volcano Observatory: its evolution, role, and activities. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 71–91

    Google Scholar 

  • Bourdier JL, Abdurachman EK (2001) Decoupling of small-volume pyroclastic flows and related hazards at Merapi volcano, Indonesia. Bull Volcanol 63:309–325 doi:10.1007/s004450100133

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bursik MI, Woods AW (1996) The dynamics and thermodynamics of large ash clouds. Bull Volcanol 58:175–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calder ES, Cole PD, Dade WB, Druitt TH, Hoblitt RP, Huppert HE, Ritchie L, Sparks RSJ, Young SR (1999) Mobility of pyroclastic flows and surges at the Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Geophys Res Lett 26:537–540

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Calder ES, Luckett R, Sparks RSJ, Voight B (2002) Mechanisms of lava dome instability and generation of rockfalls and pyroclastic flows at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 173–190

    Google Scholar 

  • Cas RAF, Wright JV (1987) Volcanic successions: modern and ancient. Allen & Unwin, London, pp 1–528

    Google Scholar 

  • Cole PD, Calder ES, Sparks RSJ, Clarke AB, Druitt TH, Young SR, Herd RA, Harford CL, Norton GE (2002) Deposits from dome-collapse and fountain-collapse pyroclastic flows at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 231–262

    Google Scholar 

  • Crandell DR, Booth B, Kusumadinata K, Shimozuru D, Walker GPL, Westercamp D (1984) Source-book for volcanic-hazards zonation. Nat Hazards 4:1–97, UNESCO, Paris

    Google Scholar 

  • Denlinger RP, Iverson RM (2001) Flow of variably fluidized granular masses across three-dimensional terrain 2. Numerical predictions and experimental tests. J Geophys Res 106(B1):553–566

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Druitt TH (1998) Pyroclastic density currents. In: Gilbert JS, Sparks RSJ (eds) The physics of explosive volcanic eruptions. Geol Soc Special Pub 145. Geological Society, London, pp 145–182

    Google Scholar 

  • Esposti Ongaro T, Cavazzoni C, Erbacci G, Neri A, Salvetti MV (2007) A parallel multiphase flow code for the 3D simulation of explosive volcanic eruptions. Parallel Computing 33:541–560 doi:10.1016/j.parco.2007.04.003

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Esposti Ongaro T, Neri A, Clarke A, Voight B, Widiwijayanti C (2008) Fluid dynamics of the 1997 Boxing Day volcanic blast on Montserrat, West Indies. J Geophys Res 113:B03211 doi:10.1029/2006JB004898

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fisher RV (1995) Decoupling of pyroclastic currents: hazards assessment. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 66:257–263

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujii T, Nakada S (1999) The 15 September 1991 pyroclastic flows at Unzen Volcano (Japan): a flow model for associated ash-cloud surges. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 89:159–172

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gertisser R, Charbonnier SJ (2007) Block-and-ash flow deposits of the 2006 eruption of Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia. In: Abstracts Volume, Fifth Conference, Cities On Volcanoes, IAVCEI, Shimabara, Japan, Abstract 11-P-29

  • Griswold J, Iverson RM (2006) Statistical indices of the relative mobilities of debris flows, rock avalanches, and lahars. Eos Trans AGU 87(52) Fall Meet Suppl Abstract H53D-0660

  • Iverson RM (1997) The physics of debris flows. Rev Geophys 35:245–296

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Iverson RM, Schilling SP, Vallance JW (1998) Objective delineation of lahar-inundation hazard zones. Geol Soc Amer Bull 110:972–984

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kelfoun K, Legros F, Gourgaud A (2000) A statistical study of trees damaged by the 22 November 1994 eruption of Merapi volcano (Java, Indonesia): relationships between ash-cloud surges and block-and-ash flows. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 100:379–393

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kokelaar BP (2002) Setting, chronology and consequences of the eruption of Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 1–43

    Google Scholar 

  • Liew SC, Thouret J-C, Gupta A, Kwoh LK (2008) First satellite image of a moving pyroclastic flow. Eos Trans AGU 89(22):202

    Google Scholar 

  • Loughlin SC, Calder ES, Clarke A, Cole PD, Luckett R, Mangan MT, Pyle DM, Sparks RSJ, Voight B, Watts RB (2002a) Pyroclastic flows and surges generated by the 25 June 1997 dome collapse, Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 191–209

    Google Scholar 

  • Loughlin SC, Baxter PJ, Aspinall WA, Darroux B, Harford CL, Miller AD (2002b) Eyewitness accounts of the 25 June 1997 pyroclastic flows and surges at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, and implications for disaster mitigation. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 211–230

    Google Scholar 

  • Major JJ (1996) Experimental studies of deposition by debris flows: Process, characteristics of deposits, and effects of pore-fluid pressure. Ph.D. dissertation, Seattle, Univ Washington, pp 1–341

  • Major JJ, Schilling SP, Pullinger CR, Escobar CD (2004) Debris-flow hazards at San Salvador, San Vicente, and San Miguel volcanoes, El Salvador. Geol Soc America Spec Pap 375:89–108

    Google Scholar 

  • Malin MC, Sheridan MF (1982) Computer-assisted mapping of pyroclastic surges. Science 217:637–640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nakada S, Fujii T (1993) Preliminary report on volcanic activity at Unzen Volcano, November 1990–November 1991: Dacite lava domes and pyroclastic flows. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 54:319–333

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Norton GE, Watts RB, Voight B, Mattioli GS, Herd RA, Young SR, Devine GE, Aspinall WP, Bonadonna C, Baptie BJ, Edmonds M, Jolly AD, Loughlin SC, Luckett R, Sparks RSJ (2002) Pyroclastic flow and explosive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, during a period of virtually no magma extrusion (March 1998 to November 1999). In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 467–481

    Google Scholar 

  • Patra AK, Bauer AC, Nichita CC, Pitman EB, Sheridan MF, Bursik M, Rupp B, Webber A, Stinton A, Namikawa L, Renschler C (2005) Parallel adaptive simulation of dry avalanches over natural terrain. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 139:1–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ratdomopurbo A (2007) Precursory data of the 2006 Eruption of Mt. Merapi. In: Abstracts Volume, Fifth Conference, Cities On Volcanoes, IAVCEI, Shimabara, Japan, Abstract 12-O-04

  • Saucedo R, Macías JL, Bursik MI, Mora JC, Gavilanes JC, Cortes A (2002) Emplacement of pyroclastic flows during the 1998–1999 eruption of Volcán de Colima, México. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 117:129–153

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saucedo R, Macías JL, Bursik MI (2004) Pyroclastic flow deposits of the 1991 eruption of Volcán de Colima, México. Bull Volcanol 66:291–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Saucedo R, Macías JL, Sheridan MF, Bursik MI, Komorowski JC (2005) Modeling of pyroclastic flows of Colima Volcano, Mexico: implications for hazard assessment. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 139:103–115

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schilling SP (1998) LAHARZ: GIS programs for automated mapping of lahar-inundation zones. US Geol. Survey, Open-file Report 98–638

  • Schwarzkopf LM, Schmincke HU (2000) The July 1998 eruptions of Merapi volcano: stratigraphy and volumes of the block-and-ash flow deposits. In: Proc. 2nd Merapi-Galeras Workshop ‘Decade Volcanoes under investigation’. Sonderband DGG-Mitteilungen IV/2000, pp 7–10

  • Shelley I, Voight B (1995) Medical effects of nuées ardentes eruptions: The November 1994 eruption at Merapi Volcano, Indonesia. In: Proc Merapi Decade Volcano Workshop, UNESCO/Volcanol Survey Indonesia, Yogyakarta, pp 9–9

  • Sparks RSJ, Barclay J, Calder ES, Herd RA, Komorowski J-C, Luckett R, Norton GE, Ritchie LJ, Voight B, Woods AW (2002) Generation of a debris avalanche and violent pyroclastic density current on 26 December (Boxing Day) 1997 at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. In: Druitt TH, Kokelaar BP (eds) The eruption of Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat, from 1995 to 1999. Geol Soc London, Memoirs, vol. 21. Geological Society, London, pp 409–434

    Google Scholar 

  • Voight B, Constantine EK, Siswowidjoyo S, Torley R (2000a) Historical activity at Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia, 1768–1998. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 100:69–138

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Voight B, Young KD, Hidayat D, Subandrio, Purbawinata MA, Ratdomopurbo A, Suharna, Panut, Sayudi DS, LaHusen R, Marso J, Murray TL, Dejean M, Iguchi M, Ishihara K (2000b) Deformation and seismic precursors to dome-collapse and fountain-collapse nuées ardentes at Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia 1994–1998. J Volcanol Geotherm Res 100:261–287

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wadge G, Jackson P, Bower SM, Woods AW, Calder E (1998) Computer simulations of proclastic flows from dome collapse. Geophys Res Lett 25(19):3677–3680

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Widiwijayanti C, Voight B, Hidayat D, Patra A, Pitman EB (2004) Validation of TITAN2D flow model code for pyroclastic flows and debris avalanches at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, BWI, Eos Trans AGU 85(47) Fall Meet Suppl Abstract V43B-1428

  • Widiwijayanti C, Hidayat D, Voight B, Patra A, Pitman EB (2006) Modelling pyroclastic Flows with TITAN2D. In: Abstracts Volume, Fourth Conference, Cities On Volcanoes, IAVCEI, Quito, Ecuador, Abstract 4.48.

  • Yamamoto T, Takarada S, Suto S (1993) Pyroclastic flows from the 1991 eruption of Unzen volcano, Japan. Bull Volcanol 55:166–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation EAR-04-08709 to BV. A special motivation for these studies arose from BV’s associations with Dick Janda and Harry Glicken; Janda and BV mapped PF and surge hazard zones at Galeras volcano in 1989, and Glicken, with the Kraffts, was killed by an ash-cloud surge at Unzen in 1991. Our research follows the seminal approach of R.M. Iverson, S.P. Schilling, and J.W. Vallance in regard to delineation of lahar-inundation zones. We thank others at USGS for comments on our generation of maps for the Merapi crisis, including C. Newhall, J. Pallister, W. Scott, J.J. Major, and J. Griswold. With regard to Montserrat, we thank G. Wadge, R. Herd, and MVO staff for valuable discussions and updated DEM data. USGS internal reviews for this paper were kindly provided by J.J. Major, D. Dzurisin, W.E. Scott and R.M. Iverson. Reviews for the journal were contributed by A. Neri and S.C. Loughlin. We are grateful to all reviewers for numerous insightful comments that improved our paper. The opinions expressed in the paper are those of the authors alone.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department Geosciences, Penn State University, University Park, PA, 16802, USA

    C. Widiwijayanti, B. Voight & D. Hidayat

  2. USGS Cascades Volcano Observatory, 1300 SE Cardinal Court, Suite 100, Vancouver, WA, 98683-9589, USA

    B. Voight & S. P. Schilling

Authors
  1. C. Widiwijayanti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. B. Voight
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. D. Hidayat
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. S. P. Schilling
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to B. Voight.

Additional information

Editorial responsibility: S. Nakada

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Widiwijayanti, C., Voight, B., Hidayat, D. et al. Objective rapid delineation of areas at risk from block-and-ash pyroclastic flows and surges. Bull Volcanol 71, 687–703 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0254-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0254-6

Keywords

Search

Navigation