TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter 1. Introduction: Why Study Dynamic Partisanship? - Ken Kollman, John E. Jackson
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0001
[partisanship;voting;political attitudes;American politics;U.K. politics;Canadian politics;Australian politics]
Mass partisanship is critically important to the functioning of electoral democracy.This chapter shows that among ordinary voters in four established democracies—Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and the United States—partisanship since the 1960s has fluctuated, with changes sometimes occurring abruptly and sometimes gradually.There are competing theories for why partisanship changes:voters change their preferences on issues, voters regularly reevaluate the performance of parties on the economy and foreign policy, and parties change their positions on issues and thus change voters’ judgments of parties.Using a comprehensive theoretical approach, the authors can adjudicate among competing theories to explain the various patterns in historical changes in partisanship in the four countries. (pages 1 - 23)
This chapter is available at:
https://academic.oup.com/chica...
Chapter 2. Partisanship: Meaning and Measurement - Ken Kollman, John E. Jackson
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0002
[partisanship;voting;survey research]
This chapter discusses the research controversies over the meaning and measurement of partisanship.The authors define partisanship as follows:a group-based, shared identity that leads to habitual and durable yet malleable patterns of political participation and shapes how people understand and evaluate candidates and political parties. The chapter provides details on measuring partisanship across the four countries: Australia, Canada, the U.K. and the U.S.Using historical election outcomes and results from surveys in the U.S. and the U.K., the chapter shows evidence from quantitative analysis that changes in voting decisions follow from changes in partisanship, rather than the other way around.This establishes the centrality of partisanship as a key driver of elections. (pages 24 - 49)
This chapter is available at:
https://academic.oup.com/chica...
Chapter 3. Consistent Partisanship Models - Ken Kollman, John E. Jackson
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0003
[partisanship;party systems;minor parties;dynamic models of politics]
This chapter establishes a newapproach to political models of partisanship.The approach begins with simple assumptions on voter cognition and evaluations of political parties, and builds on previous political models. The models of partisanship lead to predictions about when individuals and groups will change.Large shifts in party positions on issues not only lead to more changes in mass partisanship, but also affect the durability of individual and group partisanship in the future. The approach, unlike previous research, directly links individual (micro) partisanship to group or mass (macro) partisanship, and can trace both micro and macro dynamically.The approach is also flexible to accommodate two-party systems like the U.S., but also multi-party systems like Canada and the U.K.The chapter distinguishes between multi-party systems and “two-plus” party systems.The latter describes a system in which supporting a third or minor party occurs because of attitudes toward the two major parties.In multi-party systems, people support relatively minor parties for the same reasons as people support major parties. (pages 50 - 69)
This chapter is available at:
https://academic.oup.com/chica...
Chapter 4. The United States - Elizabeth Mann Levesque
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0004
[American politics;partisanship;political models]
This chapter(co-authored with Elizabeth Mann Levesque) applies the theoretical approach to the American system.The authors test predictions from a two-party version of the model using survey data back to the 1950s.Three kinds of data are tested:election year survey data aggregated acrossdifferent population groups, quarterly partisanship of the entire electorate in election and non-election years, and panel data on individuals from multiple surveys over time. The results are consistent across all the different kinds of data.Party shifts in policies and ideologies drive partisanship change, with limited evidence that evaluations of economic and foreign policy events and shifts in voter attitudes on issues have discernible effects.Moreover, partisanship shifts are more likely and more enduring in election years as opposed to in non-election years.The chapter establishes, from a large variety of quantitative analyses, that the theoretical approach to partisanship described in Chapter 3 is effective in explaining partisanship dynamics in the U.S. from the 1950s to the 2010s. (pages 70 - 110)
This chapter is available at:
University Press Scholarship Online
Chapter 5. Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom: The Setup - Ken Kollman, John E. Jackson
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0005
[Australian politics;Canadian politics;U.K. politics;political models]
This chapter begins to apply the theoretical approach to data from three countries:Australia, Canada, and the U.K.The dynamics of partisanship are described for important population groups in each country, such as working class voters, Catholics and Protestants, and regional populations (e.g., Scotland, Quebec).Evidence from surveys back to the 1960s for the countries helps establish the best description of the three party systems, whether they are “two-plus” or multi-party systems.The former better describes a system when support for minor parties among the mass public can be derived from evaluations of major parties, while the latter better describes a system when support for minor parties occurs for the same reasons as support for major parties.The chapter describes the nature of the data analysis conducted in the following chapter. (pages 111 - 130)
This chapter is available at:
https://academic.oup.com/chica...
Chapter 6. Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom: Results - Ken Kollman, John E. Jackson
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0006
[Australian politics;Canadian politics;U.K. politics;partisanship;political models]
This chapter presents results from extensive quantitative analysis of data from three countries: Australia, Canada, and the U.K.The authors test whether each of these countries is best represented as a two-party, a “two-plus,” or genuinely multi-party system.Analysis of data show that Australia and the U.K. have been mostly two-plus party systems, while Canada has been a multi-party system.From there, the authors use the appropriate quantitative techniques todemonstrate results supporting the same conclusions drawn from analysis of the U.S. data in Chapter 4.Changes in party positions on issues drive partisanship dynamics, with limited evidence that evaluations of how well parties handle crises orchanges in voters’ issue attitudes affect enduring partisanship.Moreover, partisanship among groups changes more in election years compared to non-election years. (pages 131 - 172)
This chapter is available at:
https://academic.oup.com/chica...
Chapter 7. Explaining Partisanship Dynamics - Ken Kollman, John E. Jackson
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0007
[partisanship;political models;computer simulations;American elections;Canadian elections;U.K. elections]
This chapter tests competing theories of partisanship dynamics, relying on data from Canada, the U.K., and the U.S.(Australia is excluded due to data limitations.) Using simulations, the authors examine alternative histories, or counterfactuals, derived from statistical analysis of real data in previous chapters.The authors test the responsiveness of partisanship to different degrees of change in party positions, change in voters’ issue positions, and voters’ evaluations of current events.For example, holding constant economic performance and voter attitudes on issues, how much would partisanship in specific population groups have changed under different degrees of change in party positions on issues?The methods allow for examination of alternative histories, but also for a comparison of theories of real change.A detailed analysis shows that, while changes in voter attitudes on issues mattered in some periods in some countries, in general party positions on issues mattered the most in driving partisanship change across the three countries examined. (pages 173 - 203)
This chapter is available at:
https://academic.oup.com/chica...
Chapter 8. Parties and Partisanship
DOI: 10.7208/chicago/9780226762531.003.0008
[partisanship;Republican Party;Democratic Party;political models]
This chapter summarizes the results from the bookand extends the data analysis in the U.S. case to alternative, simulated 2020 elections.The theoretical approach adopted in the book is effective in helping explain partisanship dynamics across four countries:Australia, Canada, the U.K., and the U.S.The models used, which advance beyond previous research and encompass past explanations, fit the data well in all four cases.A general conclusion from the book is that the competitive jockeying of political parties to win advantage by altering their issue positions to win over voters drives partisanship change more than other factors identified in previous research.The authors analyze hypothetical scenarios in the U.S. case beyond 2016.How will American partisanship across different population groups change in response to Republican and Democratic ideological changes of different magnitudes in 2020?The approach in the book can help answer such questions using rigorous data analysis and appropriate methods.The simulations show that parties lose support when voters perceive the parties adopting extreme positions.The chapter ends by situating the results of the book within research literatures on political parties, elections, and party systems.
This chapter is available at:
https://academic.oup.com/chica...
