近日,學術期刊《Nature》之研究報告顯示,人類的壽命上限為115歲,能達到125歲的可能性微乎其微。人口學家和生物學家都在爭論,認為人類的最長壽命還會繼續延長。但是有研究學者指出,人類壽命在1990年代就已經達到最高峰。他們分析了人類死亡數據庫(Human Mortality Database)中40多個國家的人口資料,發現人類壽命幾乎在1990年代已達到高峰,多項科學及醫療技術的發展,都有助於延長人類壽命。不過也有專家對此項研究持不同意見,認為過去的科學家們也曾聲稱人類壽命的上限為65歲、85歲、105歲,後來這些斷言都被推翻。並質疑該研究沒有應用人口和統計數據來檢測相關假設的準確性,稱「這類研究對人們將會活多久沒有提供任何科學根據」。我國近20年來國民所得、生活及醫療水準均已臻先進國家水平,整體國民平均壽命2015年為80.2歲,惟近年來增長幅度有限,甚而在2013-2014年間有些微下降。本研究以臺灣生命表資料利用統計學隨機概念進行探討,就臺灣一、1953-2015年生命表變化;二、出生、中年及老年的平均餘命與生命表熵之和及三、疾病去除平均餘命獲得變動趨勢,分析探討平均餘命上限相關問題。研究結果顯示臺灣男、女平均餘命上限大致為93歲及95歲。
Recently, a research paper in Nature claimed that the maximum human life span is 115 years old, with very little chance to attain 125 years of age. Although demographers and biologists are arguing that increases in human longevity continue, some researchers have pointed out that the human lifespan reached its peak in the 1990s, based on an analysis of demographic data of more than 40 countries in the Human Mortality Database, and attributed this to the progress of science and medical technology. However, others have pointed out that although scientists claimed that the upper limit of human life is 65, 85 or even 105 years in the past, all these assertions were later overturned. Critics of the study point out that it did not use demographic and statistical data to verify the accuracy of the relevant hypotheses, saying that "this kind of studies do not provide any scientific evidence for how long people would live." In Taiwan, the national income and living and medical standards have reached the level of developed country in the past two decades. Although the life expectancy in 2015 was 80.2 years old, the life expectancy growth rate has been limited recently. In 2013-2014, there was even a slight decline in life expectancy. This paper intends to use the statistical data on life expectancy in Taiwan by means of the idea of randomization in statistics to explore (1) trend of life table changes, 1953-2015, (2) the sum of life expectancy in birth, middle age and old age with life table entropy, and (3) trends of the gains of life expectancy by elimination of the causes of death to discuss related issues about the maximum life span. Our study reveals the maximum life span in Taiwan is about 93 and 95 years of age for males and females respectively.