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Commodity Diversification in Export and Concentration Analysis: A Case Study of Russia (2001-2020)

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 26 - 51, 27.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.53306/klujfeas.1057837

Öz

Countries support their targets within the scope of increasing product diversity in foreign trade with various policies and regulations. Concentration rates, which can be considered an important indicator in foreign trade analysis within the scope of export diversification, are important for the economic performance of countries. In this study, the size of the product concentration degree in exports for Russia in the 2001-2020 period and its relationship with the selected variables were investigated by using the Concentration Ratio (CR) and Gini-Hirschman index (GH) methods, which are the most preferred in applied studies. In the findings, except 2020 it was seen CR4 and CR8 values that Russia has a highly concentrated export portfolio in the last 20 years. The GH index for Russia, has a concentration graph that increases in the first 10 years in line with the CR4 and CR8 indexes and then decreases relatively. In addition, the relationship between the obtained dependent variables CR4, CR8, GH and the population, exchange rate, direct investments and trade openness values that gave statistically significant results from the set of independent variables consistent with the literature were examined by linear regression. While the results are in line with the expectations for population, exchange rate, and direct investments, results depending on the economic characteristics of Russia were obtained for the trade openness variable.

Kaynakça

  • Agosin, M. R., Alvarez, R., & Bravo‐Ortega, C. (2012). Determinants of Export Diversification Around The World: 1962–2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315.
  • Ağazade, S. (2020). İhracatın Çeşitlendirilmesive Ekonomik Büyüme: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneğinde Bir İnceleme. Avrasya Etüdleri, 57(1), 33-54.
  • Ali, R., Alwang, J., & Siegel, P. B. (1991). Is Export Diversification The Best Way To Achieve Export Growth and Stability? A Look At Three African Countries. The World Bank: Policy Research Working Papers No.729. Erişim Adresi: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/635281468774612514/pdf/multi0page.pdf (08.11.2021).
  • Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export Diversification and Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), 559-562.
  • Altun, M., & Benli, M. (2021). İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Türkiye’nin Büyüme Performansı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (67), 138-158.
  • Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, S., & Ferrantino, M. (1997). Export Diversification And Structural Dynamics in The Growth Process: The Case Of Chile. Journal Of Development Economics, 52(2), 375-391.
  • Arawomo, D. F., Oyelade, A. O., & Tella, A. T. (2014). Determinants of Export Diversification İn Nigeria: Any Special Role For Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)?. Journal of Economics and Business Research, 20(2), 21-33.
  • Bashimov, G. (2020). İhracatta Ürün Çeşitlendirme ve Yoğunlaşma Analizi: Baltık Ülkeleri Örneği. Yalova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(21), 45-53.
  • Bebczuk, R., & Berrettoni, N. D. (2006). Explaining Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis (Documento de Trabajo No. 65). Erişim Adresi: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/doc65.pdf (10.09.2021)
  • Benli, M. (2020). Export Diversification and Economic Growth: Evidence From Emerging Economies, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 55, 285-297.
  • Berthelemy J.C.,& Chauvin, S. (2000). Structural Changes in Asia and After The Crisis. CEPII Working papers No. 00-09, Erişim Adresi: http://www.cepii.fr/pdf_pub/wp/2000/wp2000-09.pdf (09.09.2021).
  • Bleaney, M., & D. Greenaway (2001). The İmpact of Terms of Trade and Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 65, 491-500.
  • Brainard, W. C., & Cooper, R. N. (1968). Uncertainty and Diversification of Interna- Tional Trade, Food Research Institute Studies in Agricultural Economics. Trade and Development, 8(3), 257-285.
  • Cramer, C. (1999). Can Africa Industrialize By Processing Primary Commodities? The Case of Mozambican Cashew Nuts. World Development, 27(7), 1247-1266.
  • Çeviker, A., & Taş, İ. (2011). Türkiye’de İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi ve Büyüme İlişkisi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 3(2), 1-9.
  • Dani, R. (2015). A Comparative Assessment of Export Concentration: BRIC Countries. Journal of International Economics, 6(1), 44-57.
  • Dawe, D. (1996). A New Look At The Effects of Export Instability on Investment and Growth. World Development, (24), 1905-1914.
  • Giri, R., Quayyum, M. S. N., & Yin, R. (2019). Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy İmplications: International Monetary Fund. Erişim Adresi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/14/Understanding-Export-Diversification-Key-Drivers-and-Policy-Implications-46851 (13.10.2021).
  • Hag Elamin, N.A. (1997). Export Performance In Sudan: Recent Trends and Policy Impact. Journal of Economic Cooperation Among Islamic Countries, 18(4), 57-76.
  • Herzer, D. (2006). Export Diversification, Externalities and Growth: Evidence For Chile, Proceedings Of The German Development Economics Conference, Berlin, 1-21. https://www.econstor.eu/obitstream/10419/19840/1/Herzer.pdf (01.09.2021).
  • Hossain, M., & Chowdhury, S.A. (2012). Pattern and Determinants of Export Diversification in Bangladesh: An Empirical Assessment, D.U. Journal of Marketing, 15, 109-126.
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=RU (01.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS?locations=RU (14.10.2021).
  • https://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country- (10.11.2021).
  • https://www.trademap.org/ (02.12.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PX_REX_REER (10.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?view=chart (10.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (11.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS (11.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS (11.11.2021).
  • Iyoboyi, M. (2019). Macroeconomic Analysis of Export Diversification in Nigeria. Empirical Economic Review, 2(1), 83-116.
  • Kamuganga, D.N.(2012). What Drives Africa’s Export Diversification?, Graduate Institute of International And Development Studies Working Paper No. 15, Erişim Adresi: https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/-77445 ( 10.10.2021).
  • Kostakoğlu, S.F. (2015). İnternet Servis Sağlayıcıları Piyasasına Yönelik Yoğunlaşma Analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 11(25), 129-140.
  • Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2007). Türkiye Dış Ticaretinde Ürün ve Ülke Bazında Yoğunlaşma: 1980-2005 Dönemi Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz. İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36, 15-34.
  • Macbean, A. I., & Nguyen, D. T. (1980). Commodity Concentration and Export Earnings Instability: A Mathematical Analysis. The Economic Journal, 90(358), 354-362.
  • Massell, B.F.(1964). Export Concentration and Fluctuations İn Export Earnings Instability: A Cross-Section Analysis. American Economic Review, 54(2), 47-63.
  • Michaely, M.(1958). Concentration of Exports And İmports: An İnternational Comparison. The Economic Journal, 68(272), 722-736.
  • Michaely, M.(1960). The Shares of Countries in World Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 42(3),307-317.
  • Mubeen, N., & Ahmad, N. (2016). Towards Measurement and Determinants Of Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences , 10(3), 588-605.
  • Naya. S. (1973). Fluctuations İn Export Earnings and Economic Patterns of Asian Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21(4), 629-641.
  • Osakwe, P., & Kilolo, J. (2018). What Drives Export Diversification? New Evidence From A Panel Of Developing Countries. UNCTAD Research Paper No. 3.
  • Polat, Ç. (2007). Yoğunlaşma ve Piyasa Yapısı İlişkisi Çerçevesinde Türk Çimento Sektörünün Yapısal Analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 97-116.
  • Salim, S., & Ojha, S. N. (2004). Commodity Diversification and Geographic Concentration Of Indian Seafood Exports. Southern Economist, 43(8),23-25.
  • Salomon, S. (2010).A Primer on Export Diversification: Key Concepts, Theoretical Understandings And Empirical Evidence. Growth And Crisis Unit World Bank Institute, Erişim Adresi: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.178.951&rep=rep1&type=pdf (10.10.2021)
  • Saraçoğlu, D.Ş. (2017). Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti ile Türkiye arasında Dış Ticaretin Gelişimi Ve Türkiye’de İmalat Sanayinde Sektörel İstihdama Etkisi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 72(1), 151-182.
  • Tadesse, B., & Shukralla, E. K. (2013). The İmpact Of Foreign Direct İnvestment On Horizontal Diversification: Empirical Evidence. Applied Economics, 45(2), 141-159.
  • Tegene, A. (1990). Commodity Concentration and Export Earnings Instability: The Evidence From African Countries. The American Economist, 34(2), 55-59.
  • Tekle, G. (2017). Export Product and Market Diversification And Its İmplications On The Performance of Eritrea’s Foreign Trade. International Journal of Business and Management Review, 5(10), 61-78.
  • Togan,S. (1994). Foreign Trade Regime and Trade Liberalization in Turkey During The 1980s, Aldershot: Avebury.
  • Voivodas, C.S. (1973). Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow And Economic Growth. Journal of International Economics, 3(4), 337-349.
  • Wadhva, C.D., & Sharma, O.P. (1980). Growth, Diversification And Concentration Of India’s Exports Of Engineering Goods: 1956-1971. Economic and Political Weekly, 10(14), 591-597.
  • Yaşar, E. (2021). İhracat Çeşitlendirmesinin Belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(4), 1039-1054.

İhracatta Ürün Çeşitlendirme ve Yoğunlaşma Analizi: Rusya Örneği (2001-2020)

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1, 26 - 51, 27.03.2022
https://doi.org/10.53306/klujfeas.1057837

Öz

Dış ticarette çeşitliliğin zaman içinde artması ülkelerin temel hedefleri arasındadır. Ülkeler bu kapsamdaki hedeflerini çeşitli politikalar ve regülasyonlar ile desteklemektedir. Dış ticareti gelişmiş olan ülkelerin ihracat çeşitlendirme seviyeleri de genellikle yüksektir. İhracat çeşitlendirmesi farklı biçimlerde, boyutlarda ve düzeylerde analiz edilebilir. Dış ticaret analizlerinde önemli bir gösterge sayılabilecek yoğunlaşma oranları, ülkelerin ekonomik performansı açısından önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, uygulamalı çalışmalarda daha çok kullanılan Yoğunlaşma Oranı (CR) ve Gini-Hirschman indeksi (GH) yöntemleri tercih edilerek 2001-2020 döneminde Rusya ihracatındaki ürün yoğunlaşma derecesinin büyüklüğü ve bunun seçilen değişkenlerle ilişkisi araştırılmış, kullanılan veriler Dünya Bankası ve Uluslararası Ticaret Merkezi istatistiklerinden elde edilmiştir. Sonuçlarda Rusya’nın CR4 değerinde 2020 yılı hariç çok yüksek yoğunlaşma olduğu ve CR8 değerinde de son 20 yılda yüksek yoğunlaşan bir ihracat portföyüne sahip olduğu görülmüştür. Rusya’nın GH endeksi ise CR4 ve CR8 endeksiyle uyumlu şekilde ilk 10 yılda artan sonrasında göreceli olarak azalan bir yoğunlaşma grafiğine sahiptir. Ayrıca elde edilen CR4, CR8 ve GH bağımlı değişkenleri ile, literatürle uyumlu bağımsız değişkenler kümesi içerisinden, istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar veren popülasyon, döviz kuru, doğrudan yatırımlar ve ticari açıklık değerleri arasındaki ilişki lineer regresyon ile incelenmiştir. Sonuçlarda popülasyon, döviz kuru, doğrudan yatırımlar beklentilerle uyumlu olurken, ticari açıklık değişkeni için Rusya’nın ekonomik karakteristiğine bağlı sonuçlar elde edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Agosin, M. R., Alvarez, R., & Bravo‐Ortega, C. (2012). Determinants of Export Diversification Around The World: 1962–2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315.
  • Ağazade, S. (2020). İhracatın Çeşitlendirilmesive Ekonomik Büyüme: Geçiş Ekonomileri Örneğinde Bir İnceleme. Avrasya Etüdleri, 57(1), 33-54.
  • Ali, R., Alwang, J., & Siegel, P. B. (1991). Is Export Diversification The Best Way To Achieve Export Growth and Stability? A Look At Three African Countries. The World Bank: Policy Research Working Papers No.729. Erişim Adresi: https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/635281468774612514/pdf/multi0page.pdf (08.11.2021).
  • Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export Diversification and Growth: An Empirical Investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), 559-562.
  • Altun, M., & Benli, M. (2021). İhracatta Ürün Çeşitliliği ve Türkiye’nin Büyüme Performansı. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, (67), 138-158.
  • Amin Gutierrez de Pineres, S., & Ferrantino, M. (1997). Export Diversification And Structural Dynamics in The Growth Process: The Case Of Chile. Journal Of Development Economics, 52(2), 375-391.
  • Arawomo, D. F., Oyelade, A. O., & Tella, A. T. (2014). Determinants of Export Diversification İn Nigeria: Any Special Role For Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)?. Journal of Economics and Business Research, 20(2), 21-33.
  • Bashimov, G. (2020). İhracatta Ürün Çeşitlendirme ve Yoğunlaşma Analizi: Baltık Ülkeleri Örneği. Yalova Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(21), 45-53.
  • Bebczuk, R., & Berrettoni, N. D. (2006). Explaining Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis (Documento de Trabajo No. 65). Erişim Adresi: http://www.depeco.econo.unlp.edu.ar/wp/wp-content/uploads/2017/05/doc65.pdf (10.09.2021)
  • Benli, M. (2020). Export Diversification and Economic Growth: Evidence From Emerging Economies, Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 55, 285-297.
  • Berthelemy J.C.,& Chauvin, S. (2000). Structural Changes in Asia and After The Crisis. CEPII Working papers No. 00-09, Erişim Adresi: http://www.cepii.fr/pdf_pub/wp/2000/wp2000-09.pdf (09.09.2021).
  • Bleaney, M., & D. Greenaway (2001). The İmpact of Terms of Trade and Real Exchange Rate Volatility on Investment and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 65, 491-500.
  • Brainard, W. C., & Cooper, R. N. (1968). Uncertainty and Diversification of Interna- Tional Trade, Food Research Institute Studies in Agricultural Economics. Trade and Development, 8(3), 257-285.
  • Cramer, C. (1999). Can Africa Industrialize By Processing Primary Commodities? The Case of Mozambican Cashew Nuts. World Development, 27(7), 1247-1266.
  • Çeviker, A., & Taş, İ. (2011). Türkiye’de İhracat Çeşitlendirmesi ve Büyüme İlişkisi. Ekonomi Bilimleri Dergisi, 3(2), 1-9.
  • Dani, R. (2015). A Comparative Assessment of Export Concentration: BRIC Countries. Journal of International Economics, 6(1), 44-57.
  • Dawe, D. (1996). A New Look At The Effects of Export Instability on Investment and Growth. World Development, (24), 1905-1914.
  • Giri, R., Quayyum, M. S. N., & Yin, R. (2019). Understanding Export Diversification: Key Drivers and Policy İmplications: International Monetary Fund. Erişim Adresi: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/05/14/Understanding-Export-Diversification-Key-Drivers-and-Policy-Implications-46851 (13.10.2021).
  • Hag Elamin, N.A. (1997). Export Performance In Sudan: Recent Trends and Policy Impact. Journal of Economic Cooperation Among Islamic Countries, 18(4), 57-76.
  • Herzer, D. (2006). Export Diversification, Externalities and Growth: Evidence For Chile, Proceedings Of The German Development Economics Conference, Berlin, 1-21. https://www.econstor.eu/obitstream/10419/19840/1/Herzer.pdf (01.09.2021).
  • Hossain, M., & Chowdhury, S.A. (2012). Pattern and Determinants of Export Diversification in Bangladesh: An Empirical Assessment, D.U. Journal of Marketing, 15, 109-126.
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GB.XPD.RSDV.GD.ZS?locations=RU (01.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS?locations=RU (14.10.2021).
  • https://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-region-country- (10.11.2021).
  • https://www.trademap.org/ (02.12.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/PX_REX_REER (10.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?view=chart (10.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.KD (11.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS (11.11.2021).
  • https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS (11.11.2021).
  • Iyoboyi, M. (2019). Macroeconomic Analysis of Export Diversification in Nigeria. Empirical Economic Review, 2(1), 83-116.
  • Kamuganga, D.N.(2012). What Drives Africa’s Export Diversification?, Graduate Institute of International And Development Studies Working Paper No. 15, Erişim Adresi: https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/-77445 ( 10.10.2021).
  • Kostakoğlu, S.F. (2015). İnternet Servis Sağlayıcıları Piyasasına Yönelik Yoğunlaşma Analizi. Uluslararası Yönetim İktisat ve İşletme Dergisi, 11(25), 129-140.
  • Kösekahyaoğlu, L. (2007). Türkiye Dış Ticaretinde Ürün ve Ülke Bazında Yoğunlaşma: 1980-2005 Dönemi Üzerine Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz. İstanbul Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi, 36, 15-34.
  • Macbean, A. I., & Nguyen, D. T. (1980). Commodity Concentration and Export Earnings Instability: A Mathematical Analysis. The Economic Journal, 90(358), 354-362.
  • Massell, B.F.(1964). Export Concentration and Fluctuations İn Export Earnings Instability: A Cross-Section Analysis. American Economic Review, 54(2), 47-63.
  • Michaely, M.(1958). Concentration of Exports And İmports: An İnternational Comparison. The Economic Journal, 68(272), 722-736.
  • Michaely, M.(1960). The Shares of Countries in World Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 42(3),307-317.
  • Mubeen, N., & Ahmad, N. (2016). Towards Measurement and Determinants Of Export Diversification: An Empirical Analysis of Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences , 10(3), 588-605.
  • Naya. S. (1973). Fluctuations İn Export Earnings and Economic Patterns of Asian Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 21(4), 629-641.
  • Osakwe, P., & Kilolo, J. (2018). What Drives Export Diversification? New Evidence From A Panel Of Developing Countries. UNCTAD Research Paper No. 3.
  • Polat, Ç. (2007). Yoğunlaşma ve Piyasa Yapısı İlişkisi Çerçevesinde Türk Çimento Sektörünün Yapısal Analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(2), 97-116.
  • Salim, S., & Ojha, S. N. (2004). Commodity Diversification and Geographic Concentration Of Indian Seafood Exports. Southern Economist, 43(8),23-25.
  • Salomon, S. (2010).A Primer on Export Diversification: Key Concepts, Theoretical Understandings And Empirical Evidence. Growth And Crisis Unit World Bank Institute, Erişim Adresi: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.178.951&rep=rep1&type=pdf (10.10.2021)
  • Saraçoğlu, D.Ş. (2017). Çin Halk Cumhuriyeti ile Türkiye arasında Dış Ticaretin Gelişimi Ve Türkiye’de İmalat Sanayinde Sektörel İstihdama Etkisi. Ankara Üniversitesi SBF Dergisi, 72(1), 151-182.
  • Tadesse, B., & Shukralla, E. K. (2013). The İmpact Of Foreign Direct İnvestment On Horizontal Diversification: Empirical Evidence. Applied Economics, 45(2), 141-159.
  • Tegene, A. (1990). Commodity Concentration and Export Earnings Instability: The Evidence From African Countries. The American Economist, 34(2), 55-59.
  • Tekle, G. (2017). Export Product and Market Diversification And Its İmplications On The Performance of Eritrea’s Foreign Trade. International Journal of Business and Management Review, 5(10), 61-78.
  • Togan,S. (1994). Foreign Trade Regime and Trade Liberalization in Turkey During The 1980s, Aldershot: Avebury.
  • Voivodas, C.S. (1973). Exports, Foreign Capital Inflow And Economic Growth. Journal of International Economics, 3(4), 337-349.
  • Wadhva, C.D., & Sharma, O.P. (1980). Growth, Diversification And Concentration Of India’s Exports Of Engineering Goods: 1956-1971. Economic and Political Weekly, 10(14), 591-597.
  • Yaşar, E. (2021). İhracat Çeşitlendirmesinin Belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(4), 1039-1054.
Toplam 52 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Suna Şahin 0000-0002-8241-739X

Yakup Çukuryurt

Yayımlanma Tarihi 27 Mart 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 11 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Şahin, S., & Çukuryurt, Y. (2022). İhracatta Ürün Çeşitlendirme ve Yoğunlaşma Analizi: Rusya Örneği (2001-2020). Kırklareli Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 11(1), 26-51. https://doi.org/10.53306/klujfeas.1057837