Econometrics analysis of impact of insecurity on agricultural growth and transformation in Nigeria (1960 – 2017)

Sustainable agricultural growth has been a contentious issue in Nigeria agricultural transformation agenda towards economic development. This study examined the impact of insurgence on agricultural growth and transformation in Nigeria using secondary time series data from 1960-2017. Data used were sourced from National Bureau of Statistics (NBS); Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and were analyzed using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) after testing for stationarity, co-integration and lag selection using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Johansen and the Schwarzs Bayesian Information Criterion (SBIC) Statistic respectively. The results from the econometrics analysis showed that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is affected directly by food production level and government agricultural expenditure, while insurgency such as Boko-Haram, Niger-Delta, Herders/Farmers and ethno-religious crisis affects GDP negatively. A unit change in these variables affects GDP by 5.37, 4.25, - 12.65, - 16.34, - 11.25 and -19.40% respectively. In the food production equation, insurgence of Boko-Haram, Herders/Farmers and Ethno-religious crisis negatively impact food production level by -12.11, - 4.90 and 2.37% respectively, while in the government agricultural expenditure equation; GDP, food production level, positively affects government expenditure on agriculture by 0.25 and 0.039% respectively, Boko-Haram, Niger-Delta, Herders/Farmers and Ethno-religious crisis negatively affects government agriculture expenditure by -0.35, -0.78, -6.20 and -3.51% respectively. Based on the study, it was recommended that public spending on agriculture should be project and farmers target specifically for efficiency and effectiveness while proactive counter-insurgency measures should be adopted by security agencies.