Predictors and prediction skill for marine cold air outbreaks over the Barents Sea
Abstract
Marine cold air outbreaks (MCAOs) create conditions for hazardous maritime mesocyclones (polar lows) posing risks to marine infrastructure. For marine management, skilful predictions of MCAOs would be highly beneficial. For this reason, we investigate (i) the ability of a seasonal prediction system to predict MCAOs and (ii) the possibilities to improve predictions through large‐scale causal drivers. Our results show that the seasonal ensemble predictions have high prediction skill for MCAOs over the Nordic Seas for about 20 days starting from November initial conditions. To study causal drivers of MCAOs, we utilize a causal effect network approach applied to the atmospheric reanalysis ERA‐Interim and identify local sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns over Scandinavia as valuable predictors. Prediction skill for MCAOs is further improved up to 40 days including MCAO predictors in the analysis. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000478568Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological SocietyVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
Royal Meteorological SocietySubject
Arctic climate; Marine cold air outbreak; Polar low; Seasonal prediction; Causal driversOrganisational unit
09612 - Domeisen, Daniela / Domeisen, Daniela
Funding
727852 - Artic Impact on Weather and Climate (EC)
170523 - Improving the Prediction of Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Weather and Climate – From Theory to Application (SNF)
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