Abstract
In two experiments, we investigated the relationship between confidence and accuracy in syllogistic reasoning. Participants judged the validity of conclusions and provided confidence ratings twice for each problem: once quickly and again after further deliberation. Correlations between confidence and accuracy were small or nonexistent. In addition, confidence and accuracy were mediated by different variables. Confidence judgments appeared to reflect external cues, so that confidence was greater when the participants were allowed additional time to think about the problem, as well as when the conclusion was either believable or unbelievable, rather than neutral. In contrast, accuracy changed little as a function of the amount of time available and did not differ for believable and neutral problems. These data support a model in which initial decisions are made quickly, on the basis of heuristic cues, and analytic processes are used to justify or rationalize the earlier decision.
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This research was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
Note—This article was accepted by the previous editorial team, when Colin M. MacLeod was Editor.
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Shynkaruk, J.M., Thompson, V.A. Confidence and accuracy in deductive reasoning. Memory & Cognition 34, 619–632 (2006). https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03193584
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.3758/BF03193584