极地研究

极地研究 ›› 2012, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (1): 87-94.DOI: 10.3724/SP.J.1084.2012.00087

• 研究进展 • 上一篇    下一篇

2010年夏季北极海冰数值预报试验

杨清华1,李春花1,邢建勇1,李群2,张林1,李明1   

  1. 1. 国家海洋环境预报中心
    2.  中国极地研究中心
  • 收稿日期:2011-07-11 修回日期:2011-07-23 出版日期:2012-03-30 发布日期:2012-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 杨清华

Arctic Sea Ice Forecasting Experiments in the summer of 2010

  • Received:2011-07-11 Revised:2011-07-23 Online:2012-03-30 Published:2012-03-30
  • Contact: Qinghua Yang

PDF (PC)

1588

被引次数

15

摘要：

为保障我国第四次北极科学考察的顺利开展，于2010年6～8月开展了北极海冰预报预测服务。预报试验基于MITgcm （麻省理工学院通用环流模式），以NCEP GFS（美国国家环境预测中心全球预报系统）资料为大气强迫，初始化分别使用美国冰雪中心SSM/I（专用微波成像仪）或德国不莱梅大学AMSR-E（地球观测系统先进微波扫描辐射计）北极海冰密集度卫星资料。对2010年6～8月预报结果的初步评估表明，预报结果同卫星观测资料比较一致。在发生快速海冰变化的太平洋扇区，预报结果优于惯性预报，表明模式具有较好的局地海冰数值预报能力。

关键词: 北极, 海冰-海洋耦合模式, 海冰预报

Abstract:

In an effort to facilitate the Chinese Arctic Research Expedition in summer 2010 (CHINARE 2010), numerical experiments of sea ice forecasting for the Arctic Ocean were conducted. A regional Arctic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) is the choice of the coupled ice-ocean model for forecasting sea ice conditions in the Arctic Ocean. The numerical weather prediction of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (NCEP GPS) is chosen as the atmospheric forcing, and two different satellite-derived sea ice products are tested as initialization: 1) the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) and 2) the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I). Forecast skill assessments of the sea ice concentration fields from these numerical experiments are presented.

Key words: sea ice forecast, ice-ocean coupled model, Arctic