Frailty Risk Prediction Model among Older Adults: A Chinese Nation-Wide Cross-Sectional Study
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Samples
2.2. Measures
2.3. Statistical Methods
3. Results
3.1. Basic Characteristics of the Sample
3.2. Establishment of the Frailty Risk Prediction Model
3.3. Effectiveness of the Frailty Risk Prediction Model
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
CLHLS | Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey |
AUC | Area under curve |
ROC | Receiver operating characteristic |
VIF | Variance inflation factor |
References
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Characteristics | Total | Non-Frail | Frail | FI |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sex | ||||
Man | 6300 (44.0) | 5080 (48.8) | 1220 (31.3) | 0.154 |
Woman | 8014 (56.0) | 5336 (51.2) | 2678 (68.7) | 0.182 |
Age (year) | ||||
50–69 | 1494 (10.5) | 1453 (13.9) | 41 (1.1) | 0.077 |
70–99 | 10,289 (71.9) | 8131 (78.1) | 2158 (55.4) | 0.154 |
100 | 2531 (17.7) | 832 (8.0) | 1699 (43.6) | 0.182 |
Nationality | ||||
Han | 11,611 (94.2) | 8295 (93.8) | 3316 (95.4) | 0.175 |
Minority | 712 (5.8) | 553 (6.3) | 159 (4.6) | 0.162 |
Residence | ||||
Urban | 7970 (55.7) | 5646 (54.2) | 2324 (59.6) | 0.180 |
Rural | 6344 (44.3) | 4770 (45.8) | 1574 (40.4) | 0.162 |
Education (year) | ||||
0 | 6003 (49.2) | 3646 (41.6) | 2357 (69.0) | 0.185 |
1–6 | 3868 (31.7) | 3154 (36.0) | 714 (20.9) | 0.152 |
6 | 2319 (19.0) | 1972 (22.5) | 347 (10.2) | 0.145 |
Marital status | ||||
Currently married and living with spouse | 5651 (39.9) | 5051 (48.9) | 600 (15.6) | 0.122 |
Separated | 241 (1.7) | 196 (1.9) | 45 (1.2) | 0.151 |
Divorced | 45 (0.3) | 33 (0.3) | 12 (0.3) | 0.154 |
Widowed | 8120 (57.3) | 4944 (47.9) | 3176 (82.3) | 0.186 |
Never married | 122 (0.9) | 97 (0.9) | 25 (0.6) | 0.146 |
Main occupation before age 60 | ||||
Professionals and technician | 817 (6.7) | 634 (7.3) | 183 (5.3) | 0.166 |
Administrative manager | 498 (4.1) | 363 (4.2) | 135 (3.9) | 0.183 |
Clerk | 1794 (14.7) | 1323 (15.1) | 471 (13.7) | 0.183 |
Self-employed | 233 (1.9) | 171 (2.0) | 62 (1.8) | 0.163 |
Agriculture/husbandry/fishery | 7478 (61.4) | 5418 (62.0) | 2060 (60.1) | 0.168 |
House worker | 824 (6.8) | 492 (5.6) | 332 (9.7) | 0.192 |
Soldier | 111 (0.9) | 81 (0.9) | 30 (0.9) | 0.178 |
Never worked | 196 (1.6) | 99 (1.1) | 97 (2.8) | 0.221 |
Others | 222 (1.8) | 163 (1.9) | 59 (1.7) | 0.174 |
Main source of financial support | ||||
Retirement wages | 3546 (22.3) | 2697 (28.3) | 849 (23.5) | 0.174 |
Relative (s) | 6995 (53.3) | 4677 (49.1) | 2318 (64.1) | 0.178 |
Local government or community | 1399 (8.8) | 963 (10.1) | 436 (12.1) | 0.171 |
Work by self | 1195 (7.5) | 1182 (12.4) | 13 (0.4) | 0.056 |
Household income (10,000 RMB) | ||||
0.1 | 736 (5.6) | 507 (5.3) | 229 (6.4) | 0.173 |
0.1–0.3 | 965 (7.4) | 742 (7.8) | 223 (6.3) | 0.151 |
0.3–0.8 | 1707 (13.0) | 1251 (13.1) | 456 (12.8) | 0.171 |
0.8–1.0 | 956 (7.3) | 691 (7.2) | 265 (7.4) | 0.170 |
1.0–10.0 | 6259 (47.8) | 4524 (47.4) | 1735 (48.7) | 0.177 |
10.0 | 2474 (18.9) | 1821 (19.1) | 653 (18.3) | 0.174 |
Self-assessed sufficient economic support | ||||
Yes | 12,240 (86.1) | 9058 (87.5) | 3182 (82.3) | 0.169 |
No | 1982 (13.9) | 1297 (12.5) | 685 (17.7) | 0.189 |
Self-rated economic level | ||||
Very rich | 371 (2.6) | 280 (2.7) | 91 (2.4) | 0.172 |
Rich | 2418 (17.1) | 1890 (18.3) | 528 (13.8) | 0.158 |
So-so | 9877 (69.7) | 7232 (70.0) | 2709 (69.0) | 0.172 |
Poor | 1311 (9.3) | 833 (8.1) | 478 (12.5) | 0.189 |
Very poor | 191 (1.3) | 99 (1.0) | 92 (2.4) | 0.199 |
Variables | OR (95% CI) | AOR (95% CI) | β |
---|---|---|---|
Age (year) (n = 14,314, 100%) (reference: 50–69) | |||
70–99 | 9.41 (6.87–12.88) ** | 3.10 (2.22–4.34) ** | 1.110 |
100 | 72.37 (52.48–99.79) ** | 9.76 (6.86–13.90) ** | 2.248 |
Nationality (n = 12,323, 86.1%) (reference: Han) | |||
Minority | 0.70 (0.59–0.83) ** | 0.71 (0.57–0.87) * | −0.345 |
Residence (n = 14,314, 100%) (reference: Urban) | |||
Rural | 0.90 (0.86–0.93) ** | 0.87 (0.78–0.97) * | −0.115 |
Education (n = 12,190, 85.2%) (year) (reference: 0) | |||
1–6 | 0.41 (0.38–0.45) ** | 0.85 (0.76–0.95) * | −0.194 |
6 | 0.31 (0.28–0.35) ** | 0.67 (0.55–0.81) ** | −0.460 |
Marital status (n = 14,179, 99.1%) (reference: Currently married and living with spouse) | |||
Separated | 1.90 (1.36–2.66) ** | 1.32 (0.86–2.02) | |
Divorced | 2.92 (1.88–4.52) ** | 1.29 (0.73–2.30) | |
Widowed | 5.34 (4.86–5.88) ** | 1.31 (1.07–1.60) * | 0.271 |
Never married | 2.15 (1.37–3.36) * | 0.90 (0.48–1.67) | |
Main occupation before age 60 (n = 12,173, 85.0%) (reference: Professional and technician) | |||
Administrative manager | 1.24 (0.96–1.59) | 1.09 (0.78–1.53) | |
Clerk | 1.20 (0.99–1.46) * | 0.69 (0.53–0.91) * | −0.371 |
Self-employed | 0.96 (0.74–1.23) | 0.60 (0.37–0.95) * | −0.517 |
Agriculture, husbandry, fishery | 1.31 (1.11–1.56) * | 0.52 (0.39–0.70) ** | −0.645 |
House worker | 2.02 (1.64–2.49) ** | 0.70 (0.50–0.99) * | −0.354 |
Soldier | 1.15 (0.78–1.68) | 1.19 (0.65–2.18) | |
Never worked | 3.20 (2.33–4.39) ** | 0.72 (0.45–1.14) | |
Others | 1.26 (0.90–1.77) | 0.58 (0.35–0.93) * | −0.553 |
Main source of financial support (n = 13,135, 91.8%) (reference: Retirement wages) | |||
Local government or community | 1.37 (1.20–1.56) ** | 0.82 (0.68–0.98) * | −0.202 |
Relative(s) | 1.46 (1.34–1.60) ** | 0.70 (0.56–0.89) * | −0.352 |
Work by self | 0.05 (0.03–0.08) ** | 0.10 (0.06–0.17) ** | −2.268 |
Self-assessed sufficient economic support (n = 14,222, 99.4%) (reference: Yes) | |||
No | 1.50 (1.36–1.66) ** | 1.45 (1.24–1.69) ** | 0.370 |
Self-rated economic level (n = 14,168, 99.0%) (reference: Very rich) | |||
Rich | 0.86 (0.67–1.11) | 0.85 (0.61–1.19) | |
So-so | 1.14 (0.90–1.45) | 1.09 (0.79–1.51) | |
Poor | 1.77 (1.36–2.29) ** | 1.76 (1.23–2.54) * | 0.567 |
Very poor | 2.86 (1.98–4.14) ** | 2.29 (1.35–3.86) * | 0.826 |
Co-residence (n = 14,132, 98.7%) (reference: With household member(s)) | |||
Alone | 0.50 (0.44–0.56) ** | 0.38 (0.33–0.44) ** | −0.975 |
In an institution | 3.29 (2.74–3.94) ** | 2.49 (1.93–3.22) ** | 0.914 |
Staple food (n = 14,285, 99.8%) (reference: Rice) | |||
Corn (maize) | 1.42 (1.17–1.71) ** | 1.64 (1.26–2.14) ** | 0.495 |
Wheat (noodles and bread, etc.) | 1.37 (1.24–1.51) ** | 1.28 (1.10–1.49) * | 0.249 |
Half rice and half flour | 1.47 (1.34–1.62) ** | 1.44 (1.26–1.65) ** | 0.366 |
Others | 4.60 (3.22–6.57) ** | 1.68 (1.02–2.78) * | 0.520 |
Amount of staple food per day (n = 14,233, 99.4%) (kg) (reference: <0.2) | |||
0.2–0.5 | 0.45 (0.41–0.48) ** | 0.68 (0.61–0.76) ** | −0.384 |
0.5 | 0.30 (0.25–0.36) ** | 0.59 (0.46–0.76) ** | −0.526 |
Edible oil (n = 14,269, 99.7%) (reference: Other vegetable oils) | |||
Gingili grease | 1.37 (0.90–2.07) | 1.08 (0.61–1.92) | |
Lard | 0.75 (0.66–0.86) ** | 0.78 (0.66–0.93) * | −0.246 |
Other animal’s fat | 1.04 (0.60–1.81) | 0.69 (0.33–1.44) | |
Main dietary flavour (n = 14,269, 99.7%) (reference: Insipidity) | |||
Salty | 0.79 (0.71–0.87) ** | 0.97 (0.85–1.10) | |
Sweet | 1.53 (1.31–1.790 ** | 1.04 (0.84–1.29) | |
Hot | 0.40 (0.29–0.56) ** | 0.67 (0.45–0.98) * | −0.400 |
Crude | 1.52 (0.60–3.87) | 1.49 (0.45–4.91) | |
Others | 1.29 (1.01–1.55) | 1.08 (0.86–1.38) | |
Frequency of taking vegetables (n = 14,283, 99.8%) (reference: Almost every day) | |||
Occasionally | 1.52 (1.40–1.64) ** | 1.28 (1.15–1.43) ** | 0.246 |
Rarely or never | 5.74 (4.78–6.90) ** | 2.19 (1.71–2.80) ** | 0.784 |
Frequency of taking egg (n = 14,182, 99.1%) (reference: Almost every day) | |||
Occasionally | 0.73 (0.67–0.78) ** | 0.88 (0.78–0.99) * | −0.127 |
Rarely or never | 0.97 (0.85–1.11) | 1.05 (0.87–1.27) | |
Frequency of taking garlic (n = 14,175, 99.0%) (reference: Almost every day) | |||
Occasionally | 1.33 (1.20–1.48) ** | 1.03 (0.90–1.19) | |
Rarely or never | 2.48 (2.21–2.78) ** | 1.20 (1.03–1.41) * | 0.184 |
Frequency of taking dairy (n = 14,163, 98.9%) (reference: Almost every day) | |||
Occasionally | 0.66 (0.60–0.72) ** | 0.72 (0.63–0.82) ** | −0.332 |
Rarely or never | 0.68 (0.62–0.74) ** | 0.63 (0.55–0.73) ** | −0.455 |
Frequency of taking nut (n = 14,161, 98.9%) (reference: Almost every day) | |||
Occasionally | 1.04 (0.86–1.25) | 1.11 (0.86–1.44) | |
Rarely or never | 2.45 (2.04–2.94) ** | 1.56 (1.20–2.01) * | 0.442 |
Frequency of taking tea (n = 14,011, 97.9%) (reference: Almost every day) | |||
Occasionally | 1.43 (1.20–1.71) ** | 1.16 (0.93–1.46) | |
Rarely or never | 2.42 (2.14–2.72) ** | 1.32 (1.12–1.54) * | 0.274 |
Main source of water (n = 14,060, 98.2%) (reference: From a well) | |||
From a river or lake | 1.00 (0.68–1.48) | 1.18 (0.73–1.91) | |
From a spring | 0.80 (0.61–1.05) | 1.00 (0.71–1.41) | |
From a pond or pool | 0.68 (0.26–1.80) | 0.80 (0.26–2.45) | |
Tap water | 1.23 (1.12–1.36) ** | 1.22 (1.07–1.40) * | 0.200 |
Current smoking (n = 14,174, 99.0%) (reference: Yes) | |||
No | 3.05 (2.66–3.49) ** | 1.80 (1.51–2.15) ** | 0.590 |
Current drinking (n = 14,103, 98.5%) (reference: Yes) | |||
No | 2.87 (2.51–3.29) ** | 1.60 (1.34–1.91) ** | 0.470 |
Current exercise (n = 14,127, 98.7%) (reference: Yes) | |||
No | 5.93 (5.28–6.65) ** | 4.53 (3.95–5.20) ** | 1.511 |
Number of times brushing teeth everyday (n = 13,952, 97.5%) (reference: Do not brush) | |||
Occasionally | 0.47 (0.41–0.53) ** | 0.72 (0.61–0.84) ** | −0.329 |
Once | 0.27 (0.26–0.30) ** | 0.52 (0.46–0.60) ** | −0.645 |
Twice | 0.20 (0.18–0.23) ** | 0.38 (0.32–0.45) ** | −0.977 |
Three or more times | 0.30 (0.25–0.36) ** | 0.51 (0.40–0.65) ** | −0.669 |
Regular physical examination once a year (n = 12,043, 84.1%) (reference: Yes) | |||
No | 3.21 (2.97–3.46) ** | 1.78 (1.61–1.97) ** | 0.574 |
First person you want to share thoughts with (n = 13,952, 97.5%) (reference: Spouse) | |||
Children, sons in law or daughters in law | 5.99 (5.36–6.68) ** | 1.65 (1.25–2.16) ** | 0.498 |
Others | 3.91 (3.25–4.70) ** | 1.48 (1.02–2.15) * | 0.395 |
Nobody | 6.15 (4.97–7.63) ** | 2.09 (1.42–3.10) ** | 0.739 |
Primary caregiver when ill (n = 14,086, 98.4%) (reference: Spouse) | |||
Children, sons in law or daughters in law | 5.55 (4.93–6.25) ** | 1.16 (0.94–1.42) | |
Others | 10.37 (8.79–12.23) ** | 1.52 (1.15–1.99) * | 0.415 |
Nobody | 0.65 (0.37–1.12) | 0.25 (0.13–0.47) ** | −1.405 |
Primary payer of medical expenses (n = 13,841, 96.7%) (reference: Urban employee/resident medical insurance) | |||
Cooperative medical scheme | 0.82 (0.74–0.91) ** | 0.83 (0.68–1.02) | |
Private medical insurance | 0.90 (0.58–1.43) | 0.74 (0.41–1.34) | |
Self | 0.49 (0.43–0.57) ** | 0.70 (0.57–0.86) * | −0.360 |
Spouse | 0.63 (0.44–0.89) * | 1.21 (0.75–1.94) | |
Children | 1.80 (1.62–1.99) ** | 1.11 (0.91–1.34) | |
No money to pay | 1.90 (0.81–4.49) | 0.61 (0.20–1.83) | |
Others | 1.98 (1.50–2.61) ** | 1.08 (0.74–1.59) | |
Access to adequate medical service (n = 14,192, 99.1%) (reference: Yes) | |||
No | 2.16 (1.78–2.62) ** | 1.42 (1.09–1.87) * | 0.353 |
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Li, S.; Fan, W.; Zhu, B.; Ma, C.; Tan, X.; Gu, Y. Frailty Risk Prediction Model among Older Adults: A Chinese Nation-Wide Cross-Sectional Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 8410. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148410
Li S, Fan W, Zhu B, Ma C, Tan X, Gu Y. Frailty Risk Prediction Model among Older Adults: A Chinese Nation-Wide Cross-Sectional Study. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(14):8410. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148410
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Siying, Wenye Fan, Boya Zhu, Chao Ma, Xiaodong Tan, and Yaohua Gu. 2022. "Frailty Risk Prediction Model among Older Adults: A Chinese Nation-Wide Cross-Sectional Study" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 14: 8410. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19148410