Climate Change Will Reduce the Carbon Use Efficiency of Terrestrial Ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Based on Multiple Models
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Dataset Descriptions and Validation
2.3. Variable Time Series and Trend Analysis
2.4. Structural Equation Model
3. Results
3.1. Cross-Validation of Model-Averaging with MODIS and Other Studies
3.2. Change Trend Characteristics of GPP, NPP and CUE
3.3. Correlation between CUE and Climate Change Factors
3.4. Control Mechanisms of CUE Changes under Three Scenarios
4. Discussion
4.1. Importance of the Model-Averaging Method
4.2. Comparison of the Change Trend of CUE
4.3. Control Mechanism of CUE
4.4. Limitations and Future Directions
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
Future Scenario | CUE | GPP/ (gC/m2a) | NPP/ (gC/m2a) | MAT/ (°C) | MAP/ (mm/a) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
SSP1-2.6 | −3.50 × 10−5 | 0.0567 | 0.0276 | 0.0100 | 0.1915 |
SSP3-7.0 | −1.12 × 10−4 | 0.2689 | 0.1398 | 0.0549 | 0.3446 |
SSP5-8.5 | −1.76 × 10−4 | 0.3670 | 0.1886 | 0.0712 | 0.6259 |
Variable | Pathway to CUE | SSP1-2.6 | SSP3-7.0 | SSP5-8.5 |
---|---|---|---|---|
GPP | Direct effect | −0.009 | −0.007 | −0.009 |
Indirect effect through NPP | 0.010 | 0.008 | 0.009 | |
Total effect | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.0003 | |
NPP | Direct effect | 0.018 | 0.013 | 0.016 |
MAT | Direct effect | −0.005 | −0.005 | −0.006 |
Indirect effect through GPP | −0.022 | −0.013 | −0.033 | |
Indirect effect through NPP | <0.001 | −0.002 | 0.001 | |
Indirect effect through GPP and NPP | −0.271 | 0.0150 | 0.035 | |
Total effect | −0.298 | −0.005 | −0.004 | |
MAP | Direct effect | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 |
Indirect effect through GPP | −2.9 × 10−4 | −7.7 × 10−5 | −6.3 × 10−5 | |
Indirect effect through NPP | 1.8 × 10−5 | 2.6 × 10−5 | 3.2 × 10−5 | |
Indirect effect through GPP and NPP | 3.2 × 10−4 | 8.8 × 10−5 | 6.5 × 10−5 | |
Total effect | 5.1 × 10−5 | 1.9 × 10−4 | 3.4 × 10−5 | |
CO2 concentration | Direct effect | <0.001 | <0.001 | <0.001 |
Indirect effect through GPP | −3.7 × 10−4 | −2.2 × 10−4 | −1.1 × 10−4 | |
Indirect effect through NPP | −3.6 × 10−5 | −5.2 × 10−5 | −6.4 × 10−5 | |
Indirect effect through GPP and NPP | 4.1 × 10−4 | 2.6 × 10−4 | 1.1 × 10−4 | |
Total effect | 6.8 × 10−6 | −2.1 × 10−5 | −6 × 10−5 |
References
- Stocker, T.F.; Qin, D.; Plattner, G.-K.; Tignor, M.; Allen, S.K.; Boschung, J.; Nauels, A.; Xia, Y.; Bex, V.; Midgley, P.M. (Eds.) Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; New York, NY, USA; 1535p.
- Chapin, F.S.I.; Matson, P.A.I.; Mooney, H.A. Principles of Terrestrial Ecosystem Ecology; Springer: New York, NY, USA, 2011. [Google Scholar]
- Choudhury, B.J. Carbon use efficiency, and net primary productivity of terrestrial vegetation. In Remote Sensing for Land Surface Characterisation; Gupta, R.K., Ed.; Pergamon Press Ltd.: Oxford, UK, 2000; Volume 26, pp. 1105–1108. [Google Scholar]
- Bradford, M.A.; Crowther, T.W. Carbon use efficiency and storage in terrestrial ecosystems. New Phytol. 2013, 199, 7–9. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chambers, J.Q.; Tribuzy, E.S.; Toledo, L.C.; Crispim, B.F.; Higuchi, N.; dos Santos, J.; Araujo, A.C.; Kruijt, B.; Nobre, A.D.; Trumbore, S.E. Respiration from a tropical forest ecosystem: Partitioning of sources and low carbon use efficiency. Ecol. Appl. 2004, 14, S72–S88. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Chen, Z.; Yu, G. Spatial variations and controls of carbon use efficiency in China’s terrestrial ecosystems. Sci. Rep. 2019, 9, 19516. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Zhang, Y.J.; Yu, G.R.; Yang, J.; Wimberly, M.C.; Zhang, X.Z.; Tao, J.; Jiang, Y.B.; Zhu, J.T. Climate-driven global changes in carbon use efficiency. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2014, 23, 144–155. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Masri, B.E.; Schwalm, C.; Huntzinger, D.N.; Mao, J.F.; Shi, X.Y.; Peng, C.H.; Fisher, J.B.; Jain, A.K.; Tian, H.Q.; Poulter, B.; et al. Carbon and water use efficiencies: A comparative analysis of ten terrestrial ecosystem models under changing climate. Sci. Rep. 2019, 9, 9. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Kim, D.; Lee, M.-I.; Jeong, S.-J.; Im, J.; Cha, D.H.; Lee, S. Intercomparison of terrestrial carbon fluxes and carbon use efficiency simulated by CMIP5 earth system models. Asia Pac. J. Atmos. Sci. 2018, 54, 145–163. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, Z.; Yu, G.R.; Wang, Q.F. Magnitude, pattern and controls of carbon flux and carbon use efficiency in China’s typical forests. Glob. Planet. Chang. 2019, 172, 464–473. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Fu, G.; Li, S.-W.; Sun, W.; Shen, Z.-X. Relationships between vegetation carbon use efficiency and climatic factors on the tibetan plateau. Can. J. Remote Sens. 2016, 42, 16–26. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, Z.; Yu, G.; Zhu, X.; Wang, Q.; Niu, S.; Hu, Z. Covariation between gross primary production and ecosystem respiration across space and the underlying mechanisms: A global synthesis. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2015, 203, 180–190. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Waring, R.H.; Landsberg, J.J.; Williams, M. Net primary production of forests: A constant fraction of gross primary production? Tree Physiol. 1998, 18, 129–134. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Piao, S.L.; Luyssaert, S.; Ciais, P.; Janssens, I.A.; Chen, A.P.; Cao, C.; Fang, J.Y.; Friedlingstein, P.; Luo, Y.Q.; Wang, S.P. Forest annual carbon cost: A global-scale analysis of autotrophic respiration. Ecology 2010, 91, 652–661. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Zhang, Y.; Xu, M.; Chen, H.; Adams, J. Global pattern of NPP to GPP ratio derived from MODIS data: Effects of ecosystem type, geographical location and climate. Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 2009, 18, 280–290. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Collalti, A.; Prentice, I.C. Is NPP proportional to GPP? Waring’s hypothesis 20 years on. Tree Physiol. 2019, 39, 1473–1483. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- De Lucia, E.H.; Drake, J.E.; Thomas, R.B.; Gonzalez-Meler, M. Forest carbon use efficiency: Is respiration a constant fraction of gross primary production? Glob. Chang. Biol. 2007, 13, 1157–1167. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Fischer, R.; Rödig, E.; Huth, A. Consequences of a reduced number of plant functional types for the simulation of forest productivity. Forests 2018, 9, 460. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Zhang, Y.; Huang, K.; Zhang, T.; Zhu, J.; Di, Y. Soil nutrient availability regulated global carbon use efficiency. Glob. Planet. Chang. 2019, 173, 47–52. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dou, X.; Chen, B.; Black, T.A.; Jassal, R.S.; Che, M. Impact of nitrogen fertilization on forest carbon sequestration and water loss in a chronosequence of three douglas-fir stands in the pacific northwest. Forests 2015, 6, 1897–1921. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Chen, Z.; Yu, G.R.; Wang, Q.F. Ecosystem carbon use efficiency in China: Variation and influence factors. Ecol. Indic. 2018, 90, 316–323. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kwon, Y.; Larsen, C.P.S. Effects of forest type and environmental factors on forest carbon use efficiency assessed using MODIS and FIA data across the eastern USA. Int. J. Remote Sens. 2013, 34, 8425–8448. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Baldocchi, D.D. How eddy covariance flux measurements have contributed to our understanding of global change biology. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2020, 26, 242–260. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Baldocchi, D.D. Assessing the eddy covariance technique for evaluating carbon dioxide exchange rates of ecosystems: Past, present and future. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2003, 9, 479–492. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- He, Y.; Piao, S.; Li, X.; Chen, A.; Qin, D. Global patterns of vegetation carbon use efficiency and their climate drivers deduced from MODIS satellite data and process-based models. Agric. For. Meteorol. 2018, 256–257, 150–158. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Aparício, S.; Carvalhais, N.; Seixas, J. Climate change impacts on the vegetation carbon cycle of the Iberian Peninsula-Intercomparison of CMIP5 results. J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci. 2015, 120, 641–660. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ukkola, A.M.; De Kauwe, M.G.; Roderick, M.L.; Abramowitz, G.; Pitman, A.J. robust future changes in meteorological drought in CMIP6 projections despite uncertainty in precipitation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2020, 47. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hu, Q.; Jiang, D.; Fan, G. Climate change projection on the tibetan plateau: Results of CMIP5 models. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 2015, 39, 260–270. [Google Scholar]
- Wu, D.; Piao, S.; Liu, Y.; Ciais, P.; Yao, Y. Evaluation of cmip5 earth system models for the spatial patterns of biomass and soil carbon turnover times and their linkage with climate. J. Clim. 2018, 31, 5947–5960. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhang, Y.; Li, B.; Zheng, D. A discussion on the boundary and area of the Tibetan Plateau in China. Geogr. Res. 2002, 21, 1–8. [Google Scholar]
- Li, Z.; Tao, H.; Hartmann, H.; Su, B.; Wang, Y.; Jiang, T. Variation of projected atmospheric water vapor in central Asia using multi-models from CMIP6. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 909. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Grytsai, A.; Evtushevsky, O.; Klekociuk, A.; Milinevsky, G.; Yampolsky, Y.; Ivaniha, O.; Wang, Y. Investigation of the vertical influence of the 11-year solar cycle on ozone using SBUV and antarctic ground-based measurements and CMIP6 forcing data. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 873. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hurtt, G.C.; Chini, L.; Sahajpal, R.; Frolking, S.; Bodirsky, B.L.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J.C.; Fisk, J.; Fujimori, S.; Goldewijk, K.K.; et al. Harmonization of global land use change and management for the period 850–2100 (LUH2) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 2020, 13, 5425–5464. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shao, R.; Li, Y.; Zhang, B. Analysis of the spatial and temporal analysis and prediction of water use efficiency since the Grain for Green Projectin the Loess Plateau. Sci. Technol. Rev. 2020, 38, 81–91. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yuan, F.; Liu, J.; Zuo, Y.; Guo, Z.; Wang, N.; Song, C.; Wang, Z.; Sun, L.; Guo, Y.; Song, Y.; et al. Rising vegetation activity dominates growing water use efficiency in the Asian permafrost region from 1900 to 2100. Sci. Total Environ. 2020, 736. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tokarska, K.B.; Stolpe, M.B.; Sippel, S.; Fischer, E.M.; Smith, C.J.; Lehner, F.; Knutti, R. Past warming trend constrains future warming in CMIP6 models. Sci. Adv. 2020, 6. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Feng, X.; Mao, R.; Gong, D.-Y.; Zhao, C.; Wu, C.; Zhao, C.; Wu, G.; Lin, Z.; Liu, X.; Wang, K.; et al. Increased dust aerosols in the high troposphere over the tibetan plateau From 1990s to 2000s. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2020, 125. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wang, M.; Wang, J.; Chen, D.; Duan, A.; Liu, Y.; Zhou, S.; Guo, D.; Wang, H.; Ju, W. Recent recovery of the boreal spring sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau will continue in CMIP6 future projections. Environ. Res. Lett. 2019, 14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Gidden, M.J.; Riahi, K.; Smith, S.J.; Fujimori, S.; Luderer, G.; Kriegler, E.; van Vuuren, D.P.; van den Berg, M.; Feng, L.; Klein, D.; et al. Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: A dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century. Geosci. Model Dev. 2019, 12, 1443–1475. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- O’Neill, B.C.; Tebaldi, C.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Eyring, V.; Friedlingstein, P.; Hurtt, G.; Knutti, R.; Kriegler, E.; Lamarque, J.F.; Lowe, J.; et al. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geosci. Model Dev. 2016, 9, 3461–3482. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Riahi, K.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kriegler, E.; Edmonds, J.; O’Neill, B.C.; Fujimori, S.; Bauer, N.; Calvin, K.; Dellink, R.; Fricko, O.; et al. The shared socioeconomic pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2017, 42, 153–168. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Li, M.; Yang, Y.; Zhu, Q.; Chen, H.; Peng, C. Evaluating water use efficiency patterns of Qinling Mountains under climate change. Acta Ecol. Sin. 2016, 36, 936–945. [Google Scholar]
- Grace, J.B. Structural Equation Modeling and Natural Systems; Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK, 2006. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Liu, L.; Zeng, F.; Song, T.; Wang, K.; Du, H. Stand structure and abiotic factors modulate karst forest Biomass in Southwest China. Forests 2020, 11, 443. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Zheng, L.-T.; Chen, H.Y.H.; Yan, E.-R. Tree species diversity promotes litterfall productivity through crown complementarity in subtropical forests. J. Ecol. 2019, 107, 1852–1861. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Grace, J.B.; Anderson, T.M.; Seabloom, E.W.; Borer, E.T.; Adler, P.B.; Harpole, W.S.; Hautier, Y.; Hillebrand, H.; Lind, E.M.; Pärtel, M.; et al. Integrative modelling reveals mechanisms linking productivity and plant species richness. Nature 2016, 529, 390–393. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Rosseel, Y. lavaan: An R package for structural equation modeling. J. Stat. Softw. 2012, 48, 1–36. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- R Core Team. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing; R Foundation for Statistical Computing: Vienna, Austria, 2019; Available online: https://www.R-project.org/ (accessed on 10 September 2020).
- Luo, X.; Jia, B.; Lai, X. Quantitative analysis of the contributions of land use change and CO2 fertilization to carbon use ef ficiency on the Tibetan Plateau. Sci. Total Environ. 2020, 728. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yuan, Z.; Zhou, J.; Guo, M.; Lei, X.; Xie, X. Decision coefficient—The decision index of path analysis. J. Northwest A F Univ. (Nat. Sci. Ed.) 2001, 29, 131–133. [Google Scholar]
- Yuan, M.; Li, M.; Cheng, H.; Ding, J.; Li, H.; Peng, C.; Zhu, Q. Future trends in carbon use efficiency for Chinese terrestrial ecosystem based on CMIP5 model results. J. Univ. Chin. Acad. Sci. 2017, 34, 452–461. [Google Scholar]
- Tang, Y.; Chen, Y.; Wen, X.; Sun, X.; Wu, X.; Wang, H. Variation of carbon use efficiency over ten years in a subtropical coniferous plantation in southeast China. Ecol. Eng. 2016, 97, 196–206. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Drake, J.E.; Tjoelker, M.G.; Vårhammar, A.; Medlyn, B.E.; Reich, P.B.; Leigh, A.; Pfautsch, S.; Blackman, C.J.; López, R.; Aspinwall, M.J.; et al. Trees tolerate an extreme heatwave via sustained transpirational cooling and increased leaf thermal tolerance. Glob. Chang. Biol. 2018, 24, 2390–2402. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Ryan, M.G.; Hubbard, R.M.; Pongracic, S.; Raison, R.J.; McMurtrie, R.E. Foliage, fine-root, woody-tissue and stand respiration in Pinus radiata in relation to nitrogen status. Tree Physiol. 1996, 16, 333–343. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Metcalfe, D.B.; Meir, P.; Aragão, L.E.O.C.; Lobo-do-Vale, R.; Galbraith, D.; Fisher, R.A.; Chaves, M.M.; Maroco, J.P.; da Costa, A.C.L.; de Almeida, S.S.; et al. Shifts in plant respiration and carbon use efficiency at a large-scale drought experiment in the eastern Amazon. New Phytol. 2010, 187, 608–621. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- An, X.; Chen, Y.; Tang, Y. Factors affecting the spatial variation of carbon use efficiency and carbon fluxes in east asian forest and grassland. Res. Soil Water Conserv. 2017, 24, 79. [Google Scholar]
- Shi, Z.; Thomey, M.L.; Mowll, W.; Litvak, M.; Brunsell, N.A.; Collins, S.L.; Pockman, W.T.; Smith, M.D.; Knapp, A.K.; Luo, Y. Differential effects of extreme drought on production and respiration: Synthesis and modeling analysis. Biogeosciences 2014, 11, 621–633. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Tucker, C.L.; Bell, J.; Pendall, E.; Ogle, K. Does declining carbon-use efficiency explain thermal acclimation of soil respiration with warming? Glob. Chang. Biol. 2013, 19, 252–263. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Havelka, U.D.; Ackerson, R.C.; Boyle, M.G.; Wittenbach, V.A. CO2-enrichment effects on soybean physiology. I. effects of long-term CO2 exposure1. Crop. Sci. 1984, 24. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Models | Research Institutes |
---|---|
CESM2 | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
CESM2-WACCM | National Center for Atmospheric Research |
EC-Earth3-Veg | EC-Earth-Consortium |
MPI-ESM1-2-HR | Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum |
BCC-CSM2-MR | Beijing Climate Center |
Publisher’s Note: MDPI stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. |
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Wang, Y.; Hu, J.; Yang, Y.; Li, R.; Peng, C.; Zheng, H. Climate Change Will Reduce the Carbon Use Efficiency of Terrestrial Ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Based on Multiple Models. Forests 2021, 12, 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12010012
Wang Y, Hu J, Yang Y, Li R, Peng C, Zheng H. Climate Change Will Reduce the Carbon Use Efficiency of Terrestrial Ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Based on Multiple Models. Forests. 2021; 12(1):12. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12010012
Chicago/Turabian StyleWang, Yue, Jinming Hu, Yanzheng Yang, Ruonan Li, Changhui Peng, and Hua Zheng. 2021. "Climate Change Will Reduce the Carbon Use Efficiency of Terrestrial Ecosystems on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Based on Multiple Models" Forests 12, no. 1: 12. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12010012