Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Estimating hydrological characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under climate change conditions

  • Published:
Russian Meteorology and Hydrology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Under consideration are results of solving the problem of the river water content estimation under conditions of uncertainties of climate change forecasts and the catchment state with a reference to the Amu Darya River basin. When constructing regional climate models, one selected a multimodel approach using the results of several global models and a statistical downscaling method that made the climate scenarios more detailed. The estimates demonstrated that in the medium- and long-term perspective, the Amu Darya River runoff is expected to decrease. As a result of the Bayesian ideology application, using the calculations got with a total probability formula, a prognostic probability curve of an annual river runoff supply of the basin rivers was derived based on different weights given to the estimates of a mean value for different climate scenarios. Prognostic characteristics of the annual runoff for the Amu Darya basin rivers are estimated in a form acceptable for hydrologic and hydroeconomic application.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. N. A. Agal’tseva and A. V. Pak, “Assessment of Climate Change Influence on Water Resources of the Rivers of the Aral Sea Basin,” in Climate Scenarios, Assessment of the Climate Change Impact, Bull., No. 6 (NIGMI, Tashkent, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  2. N. A. Bagrov, “Analytical Presentation of Consequences of Meteorological Fields with Natural Orthogonal Components,” Trudy TsIP, No. 74 (1959) [Trans. Central Inst. of Forecasts, No. 74 (1959)].

  3. M. V. Bolgov, I. O. Sarmanov, and O. V. Sarmanov, Markov Processes in Hydrology (Izd. IVP RAN, Moscow, 2009) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  4. Yu. M. Denisov, N. A. Agal’tseva, and A. V. Pak, Automatic Methods of Forecasting the Central Asian Mountain River Runoffs (SANIGMI, Tashkent, 2000) [in Russian].

    Google Scholar 

  5. A Set of Rules on Designing and Construction. SP-33-101-2003. Determination of Basic Design Hydrological Characteristics (Gosstroi Rossii, Moscow, 2003) [in Russian].

  6. T. Yu. Spektorman, “Scenario Selection for Estimating Climate Change Impact in Uzbekistan,” in Climate Scenarios, Assessment of the Climate Change Impact, Bull., No. 6 (Tashkent, 2007).

  7. T. Yu. Spektorman, “Methodology for Designing Climate Change Scenarios over Uzbekistan Using the Concept of an’ Ideal Forecast’,” in Climate Change Estimate in Uzbekistan, Development of the Methodology of Assessment of the Natural Environment Vulnerability, Bull., No. 5 (SANIGMI, Tashkent, 2002).

    Google Scholar 

  8. A. F. Finaev, “The Analysis of Hydrometeorological Observations in Tajikistan for 1990–2005,” in Snow-Ice and Water Resources of High Mountains. Materials of the International Seminar “Assessment of Snow-Ice and Water Resources in Asia” (Almaty, Kazakhstan, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  9. V. E. Chub, Climate Change and Its Influence on Hydrometeorological Processes, Agroclimatic and Water Resources in the Republic of Uzbekistan (Tashkent, 2007) [in Russian].

  10. Climate Change 2007. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Ed. by S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, et al. (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007).

    Google Scholar 

  11. S. Manabe and R. Wetherald, “On the Distribution of Climate Change Resulting from an Increase in CO2 Content of the Atmosphere,” J. Atmos. Sci., 37 (1980).

  12. M. Parry, “Scenarios for Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment,” Global Environmental Change, No. 2, 12 (October 2002).

  13. T. M. L. Wigley, MAGICC/SCENGEN 4.1-Technical Manual (National Center for Atmospheric Research, Colorado, USA, October 2003).

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Center for Hydrometeorology Service at the Cabinet of Uzbekistan, ul. K. Mukhsuma 72, Tashkent, 100052, Uzbekistan

    N. A. Agal’tseva, T. Yu. Spektorman & V. E. Chub

  2. Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, ul. Gubkina 3, Moscow, 119333, Russia

    M. V. Bolgov & M. D. Trubetskova

Authors
  1. N. A. Agal’tseva
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. M. V. Bolgov
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. T. Yu. Spektorman
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. M. D. Trubetskova
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. V. E. Chub
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Additional information

Original Russian Text © N.A. Agal’tseva, M.V. Bolgov, T.Yu. Spektorman, M.D. Trubetskova, V.E. Chub, 2011, published in Meteorologiya i Gidrologiya, 2011, No. 10, pp. 58–69.

About this article

Cite this article

Agal’tseva, N.A., Bolgov, M.V., Spektorman, T.Y. et al. Estimating hydrological characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under climate change conditions. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 36, 681–689 (2011). https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373911100062

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.3103/S1068373911100062

Keywords

Search

Navigation