Research on Power Grid Contact Aging Prediction Based on Variable Modified Grey Model

DOI

10.2991/iceea-18.2018.2How to use a DOI?

Keywords

contact aging; grey model; variable correction

Abstract

Research of grid contact is a hot topics of electrical power system. Serious aging of grid contacts will bring accidents or even fire. At present, the main research method of contact aging is grey model. It has the characteristics of convenient calculation and high prediction accuracy. However, the locality of factor variables is not considered in Traditional single variable grey model. For the multivariate gray model, it has high arithmetic and its prediction accuracy is too low. For this purpose, a Variable revision gray model is put forward in this paper. Firstly, Key factor variables is extracted for Modified variable. Secondly, Single behavior variable grey model is used to revise multivariate gray model. Finally, the proposed variable modified grey model is used in Prediction of contact aging. The results show that: In a complex environment, prediction accuracy of variable modified grey model much better than Traditional forecasting model. Up to 95.3%. Furthermore, the model can also be used in the occasion that Variable effects have a significant difference in multivariate prediction.

Copyright

© 2018, the Authors. Published by Atlantis Press.

Open Access

This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY-NC license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).

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TY  - CONF
AU  - Yi Zhou
AU  - Peng Xiao
AU  - Shunhe Jia
AU  - Jianfei Chen
AU  - Sheng Zhang
PY  - 2018/03
DA  - 2018/03
TI  - Research on Power Grid Contact Aging Prediction Based on Variable Modified Grey Model
BT  - Proceedings of the 2018 2nd International Conference on Electrical Engineering and Automation (ICEEA 2018)
PB  - Atlantis Press
SP  - 5
EP  - 9
SN  - 2352-5401
UR  - https://doi.org/10.2991/iceea-18.2018.2
DO  - 10.2991/iceea-18.2018.2
ID  - Zhou2018/03
ER  -