Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-m8qmq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T13:31:00.828Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Structure, Behavior, and Voter Turnout in the United States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Richard J. Timpone*
Affiliation:
State University of New Yorkat Stony Brook

Abstract

Electoral participation in the United States is examined to provide a clearer account of the effect of the registration requirement on individual voting behavior. Pooling NES data from 1980, 1984, and 1988, I first model, with traditional and selection bias techniques, the full electorate to distinguish among three groups: nonregistrants, registered nonvoters, and voters. Analyses limited to recent movers then reported to understand more fully the forces associated with the actual decision calculi of registering and voting. The influences of many factors commonly accepted as important determinants of voting are disentangled, and their effect at each stage is ascertained. Factors yielding inconsistent effects in previ research or believed to be unimportant—such as race, gender, attitudes toward the candidates, and trust government—are shown to deserve closer scrutiny by electoral scholars.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abramson, Paul R., and Aldrich, John H.. 1982. “The Decline of Electoral Participation in America.” American Political Science Review 76(09):502–21.Google Scholar
Achen, Christopher H. 1986. The Statistical Analysis of Quasi-Experiments. Berkeley, Los Angeles, and London: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Achen, Christopher H. 1992. “Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression: Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research.” Political Behavior 14(09):195211.Google Scholar
Aldrich, John H., and Simon, Dennis M.. 1986. “Turnout in American National Elections.” In Research in Micro Politics: Voting Behavior, ed. Long, Samuel. Vol. 1. Greenwich and London: JAI Press.Google Scholar
Ashenfelter, Orley, and Kelley, Stanley Jr. 1975. “Determinants of Participation in Presidential Elections.” Journal of Law and Economics 18(12):695733.Google Scholar
Bartels, Larry M., and Brady, Henry E.. 1993. “The State of Quantitative Political Methodology.” In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, ed. Finifter, Ada W.. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association. Pp. 121–59.Google Scholar
Bennett, Stephen Earl. 1990a. “Rejoinder to Piven and Cloward.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23(06):173–5.Google Scholar
Bennett, Stephen Earl. 1990b. “The Uses and Abuses of Registration and Turnout Data: An Analysis of Piven and Cloward's Studies of Nonvoting in America.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23(06):166–71.Google Scholar
Brady, Henry E., Verba, Sidney, and Schlozman, Kay Lehman. 1995. “Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation.” American Political Science Review 89(06):271–94.Google Scholar
Breen, Richard. 1996. Regression Models: Censored, Sample Selected, or Truncated Data. Series on Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, 07-111. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
Brehm, John. 1993. The Phantom Respondents. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1980. “The Puzzle of Political Participation in America.” In The New American Political System, ed. King, Anthony. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute. Pp. 287324.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A., and Page, Benjamin I.. 1973. “Indifference, Alienation and Rational Decisions: The Effects of Candidate Evaluations on Turnout and the Vote.” Public Choice 15(Summer):117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1965. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review 59(03):728.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. Chicago and London: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Cassel, Carol A., and Luskin, Robert C.. 1988. “Simple Explanations of Turnout Decline.” American Political Science Review 82(12):1321–30.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1969. “Of Time and Partisan Stability.” Comparative Political Studies 2(07):139–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1972. “Change in the American Electorate.” In The Human Meaning of Social Change, ed. Campbell, Angus and Converse, Philip E.. New York: Russell Sage Foundation. Pp. 263337.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. 1974. “Comment on Burnham's Theory and Voting Research.” American Political Science Review 68(09):1024–7.Google Scholar
Conway, M. Margaret, and Hughes, John E.. 1993. “Political Mobilization and Patterns of Voter Turnout.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Courtney, John C. 1991. “Introduction.” In Registering Voters: Comparative Perspectives, ed. Courtney, John C.. Report of a Round Table on Voter Registration held at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, 05 9–10.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Munger, Michael C.. 1989. “Closeness, Expenditures, and Turnout in the 1982 U.S. House Elections.” American Political Science Review 83(03):217–31.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Munger, Michael C.. 1990. “Putting Last Things Last: A Sequential Barriers Model of Turnout and Roll-Off.” Typescript.Google Scholar
Dalton, Russell J., and Wattenberg, Martin P.. 1993. “The Not So Simple Act of Voting.” In Political Science: The State of the Discipline II, ed. Finifter, Ada W.. Washington, DC: American Political Science Association. Pp. 193218.Google Scholar
Dennis, Jack. 1991. “The Study of Electoral Behavior.” In Political Science: Looking to the Future. 3, Political Behavior, ed. Crotty, William. Evanston, Illinois: Northwestern University Press. Pp. 5189.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Dubin, Jeffrey A., and Rivers, Douglas. 1989/1990. “Selection Bias in Linear Regression, Logit and Probit Models.” Sociological Methods and Research 18(11/February):360–90.Google Scholar
Dubin, Jeffrey A., and Rivers, Douglas. 1990. SST Reference Manual: Version 2.0. Pasadena, CA: Dubin Rivers Research.Google Scholar
Duskin, Meg S. 1997a. “Motor Voter's First Road Test.” National Voter 46(06/July):612.Google Scholar
Duskin, Meg S. 1997b. “Who Voted and Why: League Reaches Out to Push Participation.” National Voter 46(12/01):47.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1981. “Why Do People Vote? Because They Are Registered.” American Politics Quarterly 9(07):259–76.Google Scholar
Eulau, Heinz. 1956. “The Politics of Happiness: A Prefatory Note to “Political Perspectives–1956.” Antioch Review 16(09):259–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferejohn, John A., and Fiorina, Morris P.. 1974. “The Paradox of Not Voting: A Decision Theoretic Analysis.” American Political Science Review 68(06):525–36.Google Scholar
Ferejohn, John A., and Fiorina, Morris P.. 1975. “Closeness Counts Only in Horseshoes and Dancing.” American Political Science Review 69(09):920–5.Google Scholar
Finkel, Steven E. 1985. “Reciprocal Effects of Participation and Political Efficacy: A Panel Analysis.” American Journal of Political Science 29(11):891913.Google Scholar
Finkel, Steven E. 1987. “The Effects of Participation on Political Efficacy and Political Support.” Journal of Politics 49(05):441–64.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fort, Rodney. 1995. “A Recursive Treatment of the Hurdles to Voting.” Public Choice 85(10):4569.Google Scholar
Gans, Curtis B. 1990. “A Rejoinder to Piven and Cloward.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23(06):175–8.Google Scholar
Glass, David, Squire, Peverill, and Wolfinger, Raymond. 1984. “Voter Turnout: An International Comparison.” Public Opinion 6(12/01):4955.Google Scholar
Greene, William H. 1993. Econometric Analysis, 2d ed. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Hadley, Arthur T. 1978. The Empty Polling Booth. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Heckman, James J. 1979. “Sample Selection Bias as a Specification Error.” Econometrica 47(01):153–61.Google Scholar
Jackman, Robert W. 1987. “Political Institutions and Voter Turnout in the Industrial Democracies.” American Political Science Review 81(06):405–23.Google Scholar
Jackson, Robert A. 1996. “A Reassessment of Voter Mobilization.” Political Research Quarterly 49(06):331–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jennings, M. Kent, and Markus, Gregory B.. 1984. “Partisan Orientations over the Long Haul: Results from the Three-Wave Political Socialization Panel Study.” American Political Science Review 78(12):1000–18.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelley, Stanley Jr., Ayres, Richard E., and Bowen, William G.. 1967. “Registration and Voting: Putting First Things First.” American Political Science Review 61(06):359–79.Google Scholar
Kim, Jae-On, Petrocik, John R., and Enokson, Stephen N.. 1975. “Voter Turnout among the American States: Systemic and Individual Components.” American Political Science Review 69(03):107–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kimberling, William C. 1991. “A Rational Approach to Evaluating Alternative Voter Registration Systems and Procedures.” In Registering Voters: Comparative Perspectives, ed. Courtney, John C.. Report of a Round Table on Voter Registration held at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, May 9–10.Google Scholar
King, Gary. 1989. Unifying Political Methodology: The Likelihood Theory of Statistical Inference. Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Knack, Stephen. 1993. “Social Connectedness and Voter Turnout: Review and Extensions.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Maddala, G. S. 1983. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. Cambridge, New York, Port Chester, Melbourne and Sydney: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Marchant-Shapiro, Theresa. 1994. “Core and Periphery: Differential Processes in Deciding Whether to Vote.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association. Chicago, IL.Google Scholar
Merriam, Charles Edward, and Gosnell, Harold Foote. 1924. Non-Voting: Causes and Method of Control. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E. 1992. “The Puzzle Transformed: Explaining Declining Turnout.” Political Behavior 14(03):143.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Shanks, J. Merrill. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Mitchell, Glenn E., and Wlezien, Christopher. 1995. “The Impact of Legal Constraints on Voter Registration, Turnout, and the Composition of the American Electorate.” Political Behavior 17(06):179202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nagler, Jonathan. 1991. “The Effect of Registration Laws and Education on U.S. Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 85(12):1393–405.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ong, Paul, and Nakanishi, Don. 1996. “Becoming Citizens, Becoming Voters: The Naturalization and Political Participation of Asian Immigrants.” In 1996 National Asian Pacific American Political Almanac. Los Angeles: UCLA Asian American Studies Center.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 1988. Why Americans Don't Vote. New York: Pantheon Books.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 1989. “Government Statistics and Conflicting Explanations of Nonvoting.” PS: Political Science & Politics 22(09):580–8.Google Scholar
Piven, Frances Fox, and Cloward, Richard A.. 1990. “A Reply to Bennett.” PS: Political Science & Politics 23(06):172–3.Google Scholar
Pomper, Gerald M., and Sernekos, Loretta. 1989. “The ‘Bake Sale’ Theory of Voting Participation.” Presented at the annual meetings of the American Political Science Association, Atlanta, GA.Google Scholar
Pomper, Gerald M., and Sernekos, Loretta. 1991. “Bake Sales and Voting.” Society 28(07/August):10–6.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 1980. “Voting Turnout in Thirty Democracies.” In Electoral Participation, ed. Rose, Richard. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 1986. “American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective.” American Political Science Review 80(03):1743.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ragsdale, Lyn, and Rusk, Jerrold G.. 1993. “Who Are Nonvoters? Profiles from the 1990 Senate Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 37(08):721–46.Google Scholar
Riker, William H., and Ordeshook, Peter C.. 1968. “A Theory of the Calculus of Voting.” American Political Science Review 62(03):2542.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Hansen, John Mark. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Wolfinger, Raymond E.. 1978. “The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 72(03):2245.Google Scholar
Rusk, Jerrold G. 1970. “The Effect of the Australian Ballot Reform on Split Ticket Voting: 1876–1908.” American Political Science Review 64(12):1220–38.Google Scholar
Rusk, Jerrold G. 1971. “Communications.” American Political Science Review 65(12):1152–7.Google Scholar
Rusk, Jerrold G. 1974. “Comment: The American Electoral Universe: Speculation and Evidence.” American Political Science Review 68(09):1028–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schlichting, Kurt C., and Tuckel, Peter S.. 1994. “A Spatial Analysis of Contextual Effects on Voter Participation in the 1992 Presidential Election.” Presented at the annual meetings of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Danvers, MA.Google Scholar
Schlozman, Kay Lehman, Burns, Nancy, and Verba, Sidney. 1994. “Gender and Pathways to Participation: The Role of Resources.” Journal of Politics 56(11):963–90.Google Scholar
Spafford, Duff. 1991. “Discussants' Comments.” In Registering Voters: Comparative Perspectives, ed. Courtney, John C.. Report of a Round Table on Voter Registration held at the Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, May 9–10.Google Scholar
Squire, Peverill, Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Glass, David P.. 1987. “Residential Mobility and Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 81(03):4565.Google Scholar
Stine, Robert. 1989/1990. “An Introduction to Bootstrap Methods: Examples and Ideas.” Sociological Methods and Research 18(11/February):243–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stoker, Laura, and Jennings, M. Kent. 1995. “Life-Cycle Transitions and Political Participation: The Case of Marriage.” American Political Science Review 89(06):421–33.Google Scholar
Straits, Bruce C. 1990. “The Social Context of Voter Turnout.” Public Opinion Quarterly 54(Spring):6473.Google Scholar
Tate, Katherine. 1993. From Protest to Politics: The New Black Voters in American Elections. New York, Cambridge, MA, and London: Russell Sage Foundation and Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Teixeira, Ruy A. 1987. Why Americans Don't Vote: Turnout Decline in the United States 1960–1984. New York, Westport, CT, and London: Greenwood Press.Google Scholar
Teixeira, Ruy A. 1992. The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
Timpone, Richard J. 1994. “The American Non-Voter: Theory, Structure and Behavior.” Ph.D. diss., State University of New York at Stony Brook.Google Scholar
Timpone, Richard J. N.d. “Ties That Bind: Measurements, Demographics, and Social Connectedness.” Political Behavior. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Timpone, Richard J., and Mealy, Kimberly A.. 1996. “Levels of Analysis and the Changing Dynamics of Participation in the United States.” Presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL.Google Scholar
Tocqueville, Alexis de. [1850] 1969. Democracy in America, ed. Mayer, J. P.. Garden City, NY: Anchor Books.Google Scholar
Uhlaner, Carole J. 1989. “Turnout in Recent American Presidential ElectionsPolitical Behavior 11(03):5779.Google Scholar
United States Commission on Civil Rights. 1992. Civil Rights Issues Facing Asian Americans in the 1990s. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Verba, Sidney, Schlozman, Kay Lehman, and Brady, Henry E.. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Cambridge, MA, and London: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Weisberg, Herbert F., and Grofman, Bernard. 1981. “Candidate Evaluations and Turnout.” American Politics Quarterly 9(04):197219.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Rosenstone, Steven J.. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven and London: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Woodwell, William H. Jr., 1997. “Who Voted and Why: Talking about Turnout.” National Voter 46(12/January):810.Google Scholar