¹ Ma'ariv, I August 1975.

² This was argued by Major-General (Res.) Matityahu Peled in Ma'ariv, 8 August 1975.

³ Peres, , Hashlav Haba [The Next Phase] (Tel-Aviv: Hasefer Publishers 1965), 114Google Scholar; this and all following translations from Hebrew by the author.

⁴ The Chinese intervention in the Korean War, for example, came as a surprise to the Truman Administration although the Chinese had explicitly stated that they would intervene if the American forces crossed the 38th parallel. From the study of the documents, H. A. de Weerd has concluded that the evidence available to the policy makers was good enough for reasonably vigilant statesmen to take seriously the threat of fullscale Chinese intervention: “It was not the absence of intelligence which led us into trouble but our unwillingness to draw unpleasant conclusions from it.” “Strategic Surprise in the Korean War,” Orbis, VI (Fall 1962)Google Scholar.

⁵ Ma'ariv, 9 November 1973.

⁶ Ma'ariv, 1 August 1975.

⁷ Wohlstetter, , “Cuba and Pearl Harbor: Hindsight and Foresight,” Foreign Affairs, XLIII (07 1965)Google Scholar.

⁸ ibid.

⁹ Interim Report of the Agranat Commission of Inquiry, Jerusalem, 1 April 1974. An additional interim report was published on 10 July 1974, and the final report was submitted on 30 January 1975. These, however, have not been made public and all the references in the present article are to the first Interim Report. The subsequent reports deal, inter alia, with the performance of the intelligence services after the outbreak of hostilities, a subject that falls outside the scope of this article.

¹⁰ SWB (Summary of World Broadcasts) Second Series ME/4437, 30 October 1973, published by the Monitoring Service of the BBC.

¹¹ Whaley, Barton, Codeword Barbarossa (Cambridge: MIT Press 1973)Google Scholar.

¹² Whaley, Barton, “The Causes of Surprise in War,” Paper delivered at the Conference on Strategic Issues, The Leonard Davis Institute of International Relations, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem, 7–904 1975Google Scholar.

¹³ For details of the Arab deception strategy, see Heikal, Mohamed, The Road to Ramadan (London: Collins 1975), chap. IGoogle Scholar;The Insight Team of the Sunday Times, The Yom Kippur War (London: Andre Deutsch 1975), 80–81Google Scholar, 101–11; Bullock, John, The Making of a War (London: Longman 1974), 206–9Google Scholar; and Schiff, Zeev, October Earthquake (Tel Aviv: University Publishing Projects 1974), 23–26Google Scholar.

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¹⁷ Harkabi, Y., Nuclear War and Nuclear Peace (Jerusalem: Israel Program for Scientific Translations 1966), 51Google Scholar.

¹⁸ Deutsch, Karl W. and Merritt, Richard L., “Effects of Events on National and International Images,” in Kelman, Herbert C., ed. International Behavior (New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston 1966), 134Google Scholar.

¹⁹ Allport, Floyd, Theories of Perception and the Concept of Structure (New York: Wiley 1955), 382Google Scholar.

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²¹ Holsti, Ole, “Cognitive Dynamics and Images of the Enemy,” in Finlay, David, Ole Holsti, and Richard Fagen, Enemies in Politics (Chicago: Rand McNally 1967), 29–33. 70Google Scholar.

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²³ Singer, J. David, “Inter-State Influence: A Formal Model,” American Political Science Review, LVII (06 1963), 426Google Scholar.

²⁴ For a detailed and interesting discussion of the nature and impact of group dynamics on foreign policy decisions and fiascoes, see Janis, Irving L., Victims of Group-thing (Boston: Houghton Mifflin 1972)Google Scholar.

²⁵ Weller, Leonard, “The Effects of Anxiety on Cohesiveness and Rejection,” Human Relations, xvi (1963)Google Scholar; Coser, Lewis, The Functions of Social Conflict (New York: Free Press 1956), 103–4Google Scholar.

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²⁷ Jerusalem Post Weekly, 16 October 1973.

²⁸ Major-General, Chaim Herzog, The War of Atonement (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson 1975), 41Google Scholar.

²⁹ Quoted in Al-Hamishmar, 14 September 1975.

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³² Kennan, , Russia, The Atom and the West (New York: Harper and Row 1957), 21–22Google Scholar.

³³ Wasserman, Benno, “The Failure of Intelligence Prediction,” Political Studies, VIII (06 1962), 166–67Google Scholar.

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³⁵ For a discussion of the question of rationality see Verba, Sidney, “Assumptions of Rationality and Non-Rationality in Models of the International System,” World Politics, XIV (10 1961)Google Scholar.

³⁶ The former Israeli Air Force Chief, Major-General Ezer Weizmann, had argued at the time that if the missile sites were not destroyed, Egypt would be able to launch a war at any time that suited her.

³⁷ Klineberg, Otto, The Human Dimension of International Relations (New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston 1965), 93–94Google Scholar.

³⁸ David Halberstam, in his study of the American decision-making process on Vietnam, provides numerous examples of this circular process. General Paul Harkins, the American Commander in Saigon, was told by his superior, General Maxwell Taylor, to be optimistic in his reporting on the war. Harkins had his ear tuned not to the field but to Washington and the Pentagon. He reported just what his military superiors wanted to hear: everything was right on schedule, the war was being won, and victory was in the offing. When President Kennedy, increasingly doubtful about the progress of the war, sent a list of specific questions, Harkins sent a reply that was based on the debate in Washington rather than on the situation in Saigon. Th e reason was that he had received a cable from General Taylor outlining which of Kennedy's questions Harkins should answer, and precisely ho w to answer them. The Best and the Brightest (London: Pan Books 1974), 247, 331–32Google Scholar.

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⁴⁰ For a more detailed discussion of the deficiencies in the Israeli decision-making system, see Shlaim, , “Crisis Decision-Making in Israel: The Lessons of October 1973,” The International Yearbook of Foreign Policy Analysis, I (London: Croom-Helm 1975)Google Scholar. For a comprehensive treatment, see Brecher, Michael, The Foreign Policy System of Israel: Setting, Images, Process (London: Oxford University Press 1972)Google Scholar.

⁴¹ U.S., Congress, Senate, “Memorandum Respecting Section 202 (Central Intelligence Agency) to the Bill to provide for a National Defense Establishment, submitted by Allen W. Dulles, April 25, 1947; Hearings Before the Committee on Armed Services, 80th Cong., 1st sess., 525.

⁴² Kent, , Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy (Connecticut: Archon Books 1965), 180Google Scholar. The relationship between intelligence producers and consumers is also discussed in Hilsman, Roger, Strategic Intelligence and National Decisions (Glen-coe, III.: Free Press 1956)Google Scholar; Platt, Washington, Strategic Intelligence Production (New York: Praeger 1957)Google Scholar; Ransom, Harry H., Central Intelligence and National Security (Cambridge: Harvard University Press 1958)Google Scholar; Wasserman (fn. 33); Barnds, William J., “Intelligence and Foreign Policy: Dilemmas for a Democracy,” Foreign Affairs, XLVII (01 1969)Google Scholar; and the following review articles: Kendall, Willmoore, “The Function of Intelligence,” World Politics, 1 (07 1949)CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Evans, Allan, “Intelligence and Policy Formation,” World Politics, XII (10 1959)Google Scholar; and Ransom, Harry H., “Strategic Intelligence and Foreign Policy,” World Politics, XVIII (10 1974)Google Scholar.

⁴³ This monopoly of evaluation by one agency has no parallel in the intelligence systems of the major Western powers or even in the leading Communist powers. For a concise description of the intelligence systems of the United States, Britain, France, the Soviet Union, and China, see Encyclopaedia Britannica, 15th ed., s.v. “Intelligence and Counter-intelligence,” by Harry H. Ransom.

⁴⁴ Herzog (fn. 28), 40–41.

⁴⁵ Meir, Golda, My Life (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson 1975), 357–59-Google Scholar

⁴⁶ The report, drawn up by Y. Yadin and Z. Sharef, was presented to Ben-Gurion's successor, Levi Eshkol, on July 31, 1963.

⁴⁷ Wohlstetter, , Pearl Harbor: Warning and Decision (Stanford: Stanford University Press 1962), 169Google Scholar.

⁴⁸ Times Literary Supplement, 12 July 1974.

⁴⁹ Safran, , “The War and the Future of the Arab-Israeli Conflict,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 52 (01 1974), 216CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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⁵¹ Ibid., 11.

⁵² George, Alexander L., “American Policy-making and the North Korean Aggression,” World Politics, VII (01 1955)Google Scholar.

⁵³ Jervis (fn. 22), 462–63.

⁵⁴ Wohlstetter (fn. 47), 354.

⁵⁵ Ibid., 302.

⁵⁶ De Rivera, The Psychological Dimension of Foreign Policy (Columbus, Ohio: Charles E. Merrill Publishing Co. 1968), 61–62Google Scholar.

⁵⁷ Ibid., 62.

⁵⁸ Perrault, Gilles, The Secrets of D-Day (Boston: Little, Brown 1965), 171Google Scholar.

⁵⁹ Holsti, , Crisis Escalation War (Montreal: McGill-Queen's University Press 1972), 208–12CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

⁶⁰ If this last point is not observed, the danger is that the Prime Minister will not be acquainted with the conflicting views that exist within the intelligence apparatus, and become excessively dependent for information and evaluations on his adviser—with all the dangers that this involves. Walt Rostow's use of his power as Special Assistant to President Johnson to screen the flow of information and keep dissident experts away from the White House—which had the desired effect of preventing the President from becoming fully aware of the extent of disaffection with the Vietnam War and the grounds for it—suggests that the existence of a powerful adviser with strong views of his own can defeat the objective of making the Prime Minister better informed. See Janis (fn. 24), 124.

⁶¹ Lieutenant-General (Res.) Elazar, David, “Memorandum on the Report of the Commission of Inquiry on the Yom Kippur War,” unpub. memo, Tel-Aviv, 05 1975Google Scholar.

⁶² Major-General (Res.) Peled, Matityahu, “The Management of Defense,” Ma'ariv, 28 12 1973Google Scholar; Perlmutter, Amos, “The Politicization of the Army and the Militarization of Politics,” Ma'ariv, 19 04 1974Google Scholar; and former intelligence chiefs Meir Amit and Yariv, Aharon in interviews in Ma'ariv, 5 04 1974Google Scholar and 26 April 1974 respectively.

⁶³ See the section on “Intelligence” in Laqueur, Walter, Confrontation: The Middle East War and World Politics (London: Abacus 1974), III-12Google Scholar.

⁶⁴ Knorr, , Foreign Intelligence and the Social Sciences, Center of International Studies, Princeton University, Research Monograph No. 17 (Princeton 1964), 47Google Scholar.