برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی در استان‌های ایران: رویکرد مدل تحلیل شاخص‌چندگانه–علل‌چندگانه (MIMIC)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد، گرایش منابع و محیط زیست (گرایش دوم بخش عمومی)، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

3 دانشیار، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

4 استاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکدۀ اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

هدف مطالعۀ حاضر برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی با استفاده از مدل معادلات ساختاری[1] از نوع تحلیل شاخص­چندگانه-علل­چندگانه[2]، به­کمک داده­های طولی، طی دورۀ زمانی 1380 تا 1399، برای 31 استان کشور ایران می­باشد. نتایج حاصل از برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی حاکی­است مهم‌ترین علل توهّم مالی، هزینه­های آموزشی و بار مالیاتی با ضریب منفی و نرخ اشتغال با ضریب مثبت (همگی از لحاظ آماری معنادار) و مهم‌ترین شاخص­های توهّم مالی شامل: پیچیدگی سیستم مالیاتی با ضریب منفی و متغیرهای کسری بودجه، نرخ تورم، نسبت مالیات غیرمستقیم و درآمد سرانۀ نفتی با ضرایب مثبت (همگی ازلحاظ آماری معنادار) می­باشند. هم‌چنین، نتایج حاصل از برآورد شاخص توهّم مالی حاکی­است درمیان استان­ها، کمترین مقدار میانگین این شاخص به استان خراسان شمالی و بیشترین مقدار آن به استان خوزستان و نیز در سطح کشور کمترین مقدار به سال­های 1380 و 1381 و بیشترین آن به سال 1399 تعلق دارد؛ بنابراین، شاخص­ توهّم مالی می­تواند با تعیین میزان تودۀ توهّم مالی در تصورات عمومی، سیاست­گذاری عمومی را آگاه کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Fiscal Illusion Index in Iranian Provinces: Approach of Multiple Indicators and Multiple Causes (MIMIC) Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammadali Motafakerazad 1
  • Nahid Ashuri 2
  • zahra Karimi Takanlou 3
  • Jafar Haghighat 4
1 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculity of Economics and Management, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran
2 PhD student in economics, resource and environment orientation (second orientation of the general sector), Department of Economics, Faculity of Economics and Management, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.
3 Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.
4 Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Tabriz University, Tabriz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Purpose of the present study is to estimate the fiscal illusion index, using Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model, using longitudinal data during the period of 2001 to 2021, for 31 provinces of Iran country. The results indicate that the most important causal variables of fiscal illusion index are educational costs and tax burden (with a negative effect) and economic participation rate (with a positive effect), and the most important indicators of fiscal illusion were Herfindahl index (with a negative coefficient), budget deficit, inflation rate, indirect tax ratio, real effective exchange rate and Oil revenue (with a positive coefficient) (and all are statistically significant). Also, the results showed that the average value of the estimated fiscal illusion index, among of the provinces, the lowest average value belongs to Khorasan Shomali and the highest value belongs to Khozestan province. Furthermore, the lowest average value of fiscal illusion index in the country level belongs to 2001 & 2002 and the highest is in 2021.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Fiscal Illusion
  • Structural Equation Modeling
  • MIMIC Model
  • Province

مراجع

- Abatemarco, A. & Dell’Anno, R., (2020). “Fiscal illusion and progressive taxation with retrospective voting”. Economic and Political Studies, 8(2): 246-273.‏
- Abbott, A. & Jones, P. (2015). “Fiscal Illusion and Cyclical Government Expenditure: State Government Expenditure in the United States”. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 63(2): 177-193.
- Abel, A. B., (1991). “Ricardian equivalence theorem”. In: The World of Economics (pp. 613-622), Palgrave Macmillan, London.
- Alt, J. & Lassen, D., (2006). “Fiscal Transparency, Political Parties, and Debt in OECD Countries”. European Economic Review, 50(6): 1403-1439.
- Bazazan, F.; Zare-Jonghani, S. & Safari, S., (2018). “Investigating the relationship between financial illusion and economic growth in Iran During 1978-2014”. Scientific-Research Quarterly, Economic Growth and Development Research, 8 (32): 79-94, (Persian).
- Buchanan, J. M., (1967). The fiscal illusion. Public finance in democratic process: fiscal institutions and individual choice. Chapel Hill (USA) University of North Carolina press.
- Buehn, A. & Schneider, F., (2012). “Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates”. International tax and public finance, 19(1): 139-171.
- Buehn, A.; Dell’Anno, R. & Schneider, F., (2012). “Fiscal Illusion and The Shadow Economy: Two Sides of The Same Coin?”. Munich Personal Repec Archive, University Library of Munich, Germany, 131.
- Chetty, R.; Looney, A. & Kroft, K., (2009). “Salience and taxation: Theory and evidence”. American economic review, 99(4): 1145-77.
- Csontos, L.; Kornai, J. & Tóth, I. G., (1998). “Tax awareness and reform of the welfare state: Hungarian survey results”. Economics of Transition, 6(2): 287-312.
- Cyan, M.; Martinez-Vazquez, J. & Vulovic, V., (2013). Measuring tax effort: Does the estimation approach matter and should effort be linked to expenditure goals?.
- Dalamagas, B. A., (1992). “How rival are the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition and the fiscal policy potency view?”. Scottish Journal of Political Economy, 39(4): 457-476.‏
- Dell’Anno, R. & Mourao, P., (2012). “Fiscal Illusion around the World: An Analysis Using the Structural Equation Approach”. Public Finance Review, 40(2): 270-299.
- Dell'Anno, R. & Dollery, B., (2014). “Comparative Fiscal Illusion: A Fiscal Illusion Index for The European Union”. Munich Personal Repec Archive, University Library of Munich, Germany, NO. 42537: 1-29.
- Dollery, B. & Worthington, A., (1996). “The Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Illusion”. Journal of Economic Surveys, 10(3): 261297.
- Dollery, B. E. & Worthington, A. C., (1995). “The impact of fiscal illusion on housing values: an Australian test of the debt illusion hypothesis”. Public Budgeting & Finance, 15(3): 63-73.
- Downs, A., (1957). “An economic theory of political action in a democracy”. Journal of political economy, 65(2): 135-150.
- Dziemianowicz, R. I.; Kargol-Wasiluk, A.; Wildowicz-Giegiel, A. &Wyszkowski, A., (2017). Tax expenditures as an example of fiscal illusion. Optimum. StudiaEkonomiczne.‏
- Epple, D. & Schipper, K., (1981). “Municipal pension funding: A theory and some evidence”. Public Choice, 37(1): 141-178.‏
- Floyd, J. E. & Hynes, J. A., (1978). “Debt illusion and imperfect information”. European Economic Review, 11(4): 379-386.
- Gemmell, N.; Morrissey, O. & Pinar, A., (2004). “Tax perceptions and preferences over tax structure in the United Kingdom”. The Economic Journal, 114(493): F117-F138.
- Gérard, T. & Ngangué, N., (2015). “Does fiscal illusion impact budget policy? A panel data analysis”. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1): 240.‏
- Gilak Hakimabadi, M.; Zaroki, S. & Ezoji, H., (2019). “The analysis of fiscal illusion and budgetary policy in selected developing countries using dynamic panel data”. Quarterly Journal of Applied Theories of Economics, 6(1): 21-50.
- González Aguirre, J. & Del Villar, A., (2022). “Effect of the Complexity of the Customs Tax System on the Tax Effort”. Economies, 10(3): 55.
- Groenewegen, J. P. M., (2010). Institutional Economics, an introduction. Palgrave Macmillan.
- Hutabarat, D. D., (2015). “Natural Resource Exploitation as a Source of Fiscal Illusion”. Paper presented at Midwest Public Affairs Conference, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee.
- Ilmiyyah, N.; Saftiana, Y. & Wahyudi, T., (2020). “The empirical analysis of fiscal illusion”. Accounting, 6(6): 1033-1044.
- Jeyhuntabar, F., (2018). “Investigating the financial illusion of the complexity of government revenue structure in the Iranian economy”. Journal of Economic Policy Research. 10 (20): 163-189, (Persian).
- Kilby, N., (2014). Does Tax Revenue Diversification Help States Weather Economic Downturns? Evidence from the Great Recession.‏
- Madah, M. & Farahati, M., (2015). “Empirical analysis of financial illusion in Iran (with emphasis on the role of indirect taxes)”. Journal of Taxation, 29: 67-97, (Persian).
- Madah, M. & Sadeghi, F., (2013). “Investigating the trend of financial illusion in Iran's economy (MIMIC approach)”. Quantitative Economics Quarterly (Former Economic Studies), 10 (3): 85-113, (Persian).
- Madah, M.; Jeyhuntabar, F. & Rezapour, Z., (2014). “Empirical analysis of public spending dynamics in the Iranian economy in the framework of the middle voter model despite financial illusions”. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy, 72: 197-216, (Persian).
- Maddah, M. & Jeyhoon-Tabar, F., (2018). “The Tax and Petroleum Revenue Effect on Iran’s Public Expenditures (1994–2015), Employing Fiscal Illusion Approach”. Iranian Economic Review, 22(3): 833-866.
- Manafi Anvar, V.; Khodadad Kashi, F.; Biabani, J. & Pasban, F., (2015). “Factors Affecting Real Exchange Rate Changes and Its Impact on the Competitiveness Index in the Iranian Economy (1358-92)”. Financial Economics, 9 (32): 1-24.
- McCulloch, J. R., (1975). A Treatise on the Practical Influence of Taxation and the Funding System. Original Edition 1845, Reprint D.P. O'Brien (ed), Edinburgh: Scottish Academic Press.
- Mill, J. S., (1848). Principles of Political Economy. Consulted Edition: Mill, J. Stuart 1994.‏
- Mourão, P. R., (2008). “The Consequences of Fiscal Illusion on Economic Growth”. EJournal of Tax Research, 6(2): 82−89.
- Mueller, D. C., (2003). Public choice III. Cambridge University Press.‏
- Oates, W. E., (1969). “The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values: An empirical study of tax capitalization and the Tiebout hypothesis”. Journal of political economy, 77(6): 957-971.
- Oates, W. E., (1988). “On the Nature and Measurement of Fiscal Illusion: A Survey”. In: Taxation and Fiscal Federalism: Essays in Honour of Russell Mathews, G. Brennan et al., eds., Sydney: Australian National University Press, 65.
- Pommerehne, W. W. & Schneider, F., (1978). “Fiscal illusion, political institutions, and local public spending”. Kyklos, 31(3): 381-408.
- Prado, P. H. M. & da Silva, C. G., (2020). “Wagner’s Law and Fiscal Illusion: An analysis of state government finances in Brazil”. Review of Development Economics, 24(2): 628-643.‏
- Puviani, A., (1903). Teoria della Illusions Finanziaria. Palermo: Sandron.
- Sachs, J. D. & Warner, A., (1995). Natural resource abundance and economic growth.
- Sanandaji, T. & Wallace, B., (2010). “Research Institute of Industrial Economics”. IFN Working Paper, No. 837, www.ifn.se/wfiles/wp/wp837.
- Sausgruber, R. & Tyran, J. R., (2005). “Testing the Mill hypothesis of fiscal illusion”. Public choice, 122(1-2): 39-68.‏
- Schmölders, G., (1960). Das Irrationale in der öffentlichen Finanzwirtschaft. Reinbeck: Rowohlt.
- Serrano, A. L. M.; Ferreira, L. O. G. & Mendes, N. C. F., (2022). “Evidence of the Effects of Fiscal Illusion in Brazil Using Mill Hypotheses and Wagner Law Tests”.‏ International Journal of Research in Engineering and Science (IJRES). 10 (2): 59-71.
- Tanzi, V., (1999). “Uses and abuses of estimates of the underground economy”. The economic journal, 109(456): F338-F347.
- Tarar, M. A. & Munir, M., (2012). Impact of Tax Education on Tax Illusion: An Experimental Study.
- Tirole, J., (2011). “Illiquidity and all its friends”. Journal of Economic Literature, 49(2): 287-325.
- Utari, T., (2015). ANalisis Ilusi Fiskal dalam Kinerja Anggaran Pemerintah Daerah di Provinsi Se-Indonesia (Issue 13919016). Universitas Islam Indonesia
- Wagner, R. E., (1976). “Revenue Structure, Fiscal Illusion and Budgetary Choice”. Public Choice, 25: 45-61.
- Weck-Hannemann, H., (1983). Schattenwirtschaft: Eine Möglichkeit zur Einschränkung der öffentlichen Verwaltung? Eine ökonomische Analyse, Frankfurt/Main.‏
- Zaroki, S. & Ezoji, H., (2018). “Fiscal Illusion in Iranian Economy Emphasizing the Five-Dimensional Indicators and the NARDL Approach”. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting, 22(4): 35-80.‏
فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران
دوره 11، شماره 43
آذر 1401
صفحه 173-208

فایل ها

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار