2008 Volume 55 Pages 1331-1335
The effects of global warming on natural disasters are the indisputable issue. The consideration of the effects is necessary to estimate the coastal hazard risk. The change of typhoon characteristics due to global warming was evaluated by using the latest results of high resolution global climate model simulation. Magnitudes of the future typhoon will increase due to the effect of global warming. The occurrence distribution of typhoons will be moved about 2.6 degrees northward, and the ratio of typhoons which approach Japan will increase in the future. Storm surge simulations were conducted by SuWAT model using the GCM simulation results for the Tokyo Bay. It was clearly confirmed that not only the scale of the typhoon but also the relation between the typhoon track and the shape of bay was important factors.