تأثیر آزادسازی تجارت محصولات کشاورزی بر قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقالات پژوهشی به زبان انگلیسی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تبریز

2 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد رشته اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تبریز

3 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تبریز

چکیده

گسترش تجارت و آزادسازی آن، از متداول‌ترین سیاست‌ها برای دست‌یابی به رشد و توسعه اقتصادی در اغلب کشورها به شمار می‌رود. آزادسازی تجارت محصولات کشاورزی و اثر آن بر قیمت مواد غذایی، به دلیل اهمیت مواد غذایی در سبد مصرفی خانوار، یکی از مهم‌ترین اهداف دولت‌ها برای دسترسی عموم جامعه به مواد غذایی سالم و کافی است. در مطالعه حاضر، تأثیر آزادسازی تجاری بر قیمت مواد غذایی در ایران بررسی شده‌است. بدین منظور، از مدل تصحیح خطای تک‌معادله‌ای (SEECM)‌ با استفاده داده‌های سالانه مورد نیاز طی دوره زمانی سال‌های 98-1368 بهره گرفته شد. نتایج برآورد مدل SEECM نشان‌دهنده آن است که ضریب تصحیح خطا معنی‌دار و برابر با 345/0- بوده و بیانگر این امر است که در بلندمدت اگر یک شوکی بر قیمت داخلی مواد غذایی وارد شود بازار داخلی می‌تواند سالانه فقط 30 درصد آن را تعدیل کند. همچنین روابط تعادلی بلندمدت برآورد شده در مدل SEECM مؤید آن است که قیمت جهانی محصولات غذایی اثر مثبت و آزادسازی تجاری، اثری منفی بر قیمت مواد غذایی داخلی دارند. با توجه به نوسانات قیمت‌های جهانی و تأثیرپذیری قیمت‌های داخلی از آن، لزوم توجه به نوسانات قیمت‌های جهانی و نرخ ارز در تدوین سیاست‌های تجاری توصیه می‌شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Agricultural Trade Openness on Food Price in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Ghahremanzadeh 1
  • M. Samadpour 2
  • J. Hosseinzad 3
1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
3 Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Trade liberalization of agricultural products and its effect on food prices, because of the importance of food in the household consumption basket, is one of the most important goals of governments for public access to health and food security. The present study investigated the effect of trade liberalization on domestic food prices in Iran. In this context, the single-equation error correction model (SEECM) was applied using the required time series data during 1989-2019. The results show that in the short-term, only increases in global food prices, liquidity, and exchange rates significantly affect domestic food prices. However, domestic food prices show more reaction to exchange rate fluctuations than to world prices. The estimated long-run equilibrium relationship demonstrated that world food prices have a positive and trade liberalization has a negative effect on domestic food prices. In addition, in the long run, the effect of liquidity on the domestic food price of food is more than other factors. The estimated error-correction term indicates that in the long run, if a shock occurs to the domestic food price, the domestic market can adjust it by only 35% annually. Considering the fluctuations of global prices and exchange rates, and their impacts on domestic prices, it is necessary to pay attention to these fluctuations in revising trade policies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Exchange rate
  • Food stuff
  • Global prices
  • Trade openness

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 22 آبان 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 29 بهمن 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 25 اسفند 1400

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