نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی

مقایسه کارکرد مدل های مفهومی در شبیه سازی هیدرولوژیک رودخانه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تهران، دکترای محیط زیست

2 دکتری، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

مدلهای هیدرولوژیک بارش-رواناب ابزارهای مهمی در پروژه های منابع آبی هستند. بطور کلی کارایی این گروه مدلها وابسته به انتخاب مناسب پارامترهای مدل است. براین اساس روشهای متعددی برای برآورد پارامترهای هیدرولوژیک ابداع شده اند. تحقیق حاضر با هدف مقایسه عملکرد مدلهای هیدرولوژیک ادراکی TANK،SIMHYD و AWBM که از قابلیت برآورد غیر مستقیم پارامترهای مدل بهره می برند، در شبیه سازی جریان دبی حوزه آبخیز بابلرود واقع در استان مازندران شکل گرفت. فرآیند کالیبراسیون خودکار این مدلها با کاربرد الگوریتم جستجوی تکاملی ژنتیک و استفاده از توابع هدف NSE و RMSE به عنوان عوامل تعیین کننده سطح خطا و آستانه های توقف شبیه سازی طراحی شد. در این روال داده های هواشناسی و آب شناسی دما، تبخیر و تعرق، بارش و دبی در مقیاس روزانه از سازمانهای مربوطه تهیه و پس از اعتبارسنجی مقدماتی و ترمیم گپ های موجود به بخشهای تعادل سنجی، آموزش و تست تقسیم بندی شدند. براساس نتایج حاصل، نمایه NSE برای گام آموزش و تست مدل TANK (0,59 تا 0,72)، و نمایه RMSE برای گام آموزش مدل SIMHYD (0,83) و گام تست مدل TANK (0,15) را برترین شبیه ساز معرفی می کند. مطابق با نتایج نمایه های تحلیلی مشخصه های جریان، بطور کلی شبیه سازی های انجام شده در مقادیر دبی کم آبی (به استثنای مدل TANK)، دبی متوسط و دبی پرآبی جریان با تطابق قابل قبولی انجام شده است. این درصورتی است که شبیه سازی شیب منحنی تداوم جریان که به نوعی بیانگر شدت تغییرات است (به استثنای مدل TANK در گام آموزش)، نتایج قابل قبولی ارایه نکرد. لیکن با توجه به ضعف و قوتهای مطرح شده، مدلهای مذکور پس از انجام تست های مقدماتی در شرایط متفاوت اقلیمی کشور، می توانند به عنوان شبیه سازهایی قابل قبول جهت مدیریت منابع آبی خصوصا در حوزه های فاقد اطلاعات آماری مورد استفاده قرار گیرند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating performance of the conceptual models in river hydrologic simulation

نویسنده [English]

  • Bahman Jabbarian Amiri 1

چکیده [English]

Rainfall-runoff hydrological models are important tools in water resources projects. Generally, performance of this group of models is dependent on the proper selection of parameters. Accordingly, several methods have been developed to estimate hydrological parameters. The present study aimed to compare the performance of conceptual hydrologic models such as TANK, SIMHYD and AWBM which benefit from the indirect model parameters estimation approach in discharge simulation of Babolroud watershed, Mazandaran province, Iran. The automatic calibration process of these models was designed using genetic evolutionary search algorithm and objective functions (NSE and RMSE) as error thresholds determinants. Hence, meteorological and hydrological data consist of temperature, evapotranspiration, precipitation and discharge (in daily scale) were gathered from authorities. Input data was also divided into warm-up, train and test steps after preliminary validation and recovery. Based on the results, NSE metric introduced TANK model as the best simulator respectively for train and test step (0.59 to 0.72). Depends on RMSE metric, SIMHYD (0.83) and TANK (0.15) models were introduced as the best simulator respectively for train and test step either. According to the catchment flow signatures, general simulation of low-flow (excluding the Model TANK), mean-flow and high-flow were conducted with acceptable agreement. While simulation of the flow duration curve slope which represents an intensity of changes (excluding TANK model in train step), did not provide acceptable results. Given the weaknesses and strengths of the proposed models, they can be used as an acceptable simulator in water resources management especially in terms of ungauged basins, after preliminary verification in different climatic conditions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Rainfall-Runoff Process
  • Discharge Simulation
  • Conceptual Hydrological Models
  • Automatic Optimization
  • Babolroud Watershed
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نشریه محیط زیست طبیعی
دوره 71، شماره 4
دی 1397
صفحه 509-521