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Title: Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste.

Abstract

The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods ismore » recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Battelle Pacific Northwest Labs., Richland, WA (United States)
OSTI Identifier:
6326617
Report Number(s):
PNL-2643
TRN: 79-008925
DOE Contract Number:  
EY-76-C-06-1830
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; 11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS; RADIOACTIVE WASTE FACILITIES; SAFETY; EVALUATION; FAILURE MODE ANALYSIS; FAULT TREE ANALYSIS; MARKOV PROCESS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; SIMULATION; SYSTEMS ANALYSIS; NUCLEAR FACILITIES; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; SYSTEM FAILURE ANALYSIS; 052002* - Nuclear Fuels- Waste Disposal & Storage; 054000 - Nuclear Fuels- Health & Safety

Citation Formats

Greenborg, J, Winegardner, W K, Pelto, P J, Voss, J W, Stottlemyre, J A, Forbes, I A, Fussell, J B, and Burkholder, H C. Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste.. United States: N. p., 1978. Web. doi:10.2172/6326617.
Greenborg, J, Winegardner, W K, Pelto, P J, Voss, J W, Stottlemyre, J A, Forbes, I A, Fussell, J B, & Burkholder, H C. Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste.. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/6326617
Greenborg, J, Winegardner, W K, Pelto, P J, Voss, J W, Stottlemyre, J A, Forbes, I A, Fussell, J B, and Burkholder, H C. 1978. "Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste.". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/6326617. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/6326617.
@article{osti_6326617,
title = {Waste Isolation Safety Assessment Program scenario analysis methods for use in assessing the safety of the geologic isolation of nuclear waste.},
author = {Greenborg, J and Winegardner, W K and Pelto, P J and Voss, J W and Stottlemyre, J A and Forbes, I A and Fussell, J B and Burkholder, H C},
abstractNote = {The relative utility of the various safety analysis methods to scenario analysis for a repository system was evaluated by judging the degree to which certain criteria are satisfied by use of the method. Six safety analysis methods were reviewed in this report for possible use in scenario analysis of nuclear waste repositories: expert opinion, perspectives analysis, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation, Markov chains, and classical systems analysis. Four criteria have been selected. The criteria suggest that the methods: (1) be quantitative and scientifically based; (2) model the potential disruptive events and processes, (3) model the system before and after failure (sufficiently detailed to provide for subsequent consequence analysis); and (4) be compatible with the level of available system knowledge and data. Expert opinion, fault trees/event trees, Monte Carlo simulation and classical systems analysis were judged to have the greatest potential appliation to the problem of scenario analysis. The methods were found to be constrained by limited data and by knowledge of the processes governing the system. It was determined that no single method is clearly superior to others when measured against all the criteria. Therefore, to get the best understanding of system behavior, a combination of the methods is recommended. Monte Carlo simulation was judged to be the most suitable matrix in which to incorporate a combination of methods.},
doi = {10.2172/6326617},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/6326617}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1978},
month = {Wed Nov 01 00:00:00 EST 1978}
}