THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC POLICIES ON COTTON PRODUCTION IN EGYPT: USING PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL

The cotton crop was subjected to many changes that led to the lack of clarity and stability of the price policy of the cotton crop, which led to the loss of its position in the global market, which resulted in a clear decline in the cotton cultivated. The different economic indicators of the partial equilibrium model during the period 2000-2020. The results of the study showed that there was a statistically significant annual decrease in each of the cultivated area, total production, the quantity of exports, and the domestic consumption of cotton, while it was found that there was a significant increase in each of the quantity of imports, the farm price, and the exchange rate of the pound against the dollar. The indicators of the partial equilibrium model also showed a clear fluctuation in their values, whether in the case of the export tax model, where the average net economic loss in production, consumption and societal was about 5.39, 0.304, 5.39 billion pounds, respectively, while the average change in each of the surplus producers and the consumer amounted about 2.39 and 1.45 billion pounds, respectively, and the decrease in the consumer surplus is due to the high levels of both international prices and the exchange rate and the low levels of production and consumption, while the average change in government revenue amounted to 6.33 billion pounds, while the change in foreign exchange amounted to about 22.230 billion pounds during the study period. In the case of imposing a customs tariff on imports of cotton, the average net economic loss in production, consumption, and societal loss amounted to about 190, 59.7, and -250 million pounds, respectively, while the average change in both producer and consumer surpluses amounted to about 1274, 465 million pounds, respectively. The average change in government revenue was 558 million pounds, while the change in foreign exchange was estimated at 1.378 billion pounds (equivalent to 153 million dollars) during the study period