Cent Eur J Public Health 2018, 26(2):124-131 | DOI: 10.21101/cejph.a4928

Annual and seasonal trends in mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases in Hungary between 1984 and 2013

Katalin Virág1, Tibor András Nyári2
1 Bolyai Institute, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary
2 Department of Medical Physics and Informatics, University of Szeged, Szeged, Hungary

Objectives: The aim of this study was to investigate annual and seasonal trends in mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases in Hungary between 1984 and 2013.

Methods: Annual and monthly mortality and population data were obtained from the Hungarian Central Statistical Office. The annual mortality data by gender and age were available for the following disease classifications of the circulatory system: all cardiovascular diseases, all diseases of the heart, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and cerebrovascular diseases. Six age groups were defined for both sexes. Negative binomial regression was carried out to analyse annual trends in age-standardized mortality rates. The Walter-Elwood method was used to identify seasonal variation using monthly numbers of deaths.

Results: Significant decreases in annual mortality rates for all cardiovascular diseases were found, but not for hypertension. Age-standardized death rates were higher for men for all causes, except for hypertension. The greatest sex difference in the average risk of death was observed in the middle-aged groups. The greatest percentage decrease in death rates during the study period was seen for both sexes in the under 35 age group. The lowest percentage change was observed among people aged over 75. Significant seasonality was found in monthly death rates from all causes, with a peak in February.

Conclusions: In spite of a decreasing trend in the annual mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases, the Hungarian mortality rate is still high. Moreover, this study demonstrated a significant winter peak in mortality from cardiovascular diseases over a thirty-year period.

Keywords: cardiovascular mortality, annual trend, seasonal trend, epidemiology, Hungary

Received: September 15, 2016; Revised: May 14, 2018; Accepted: May 14, 2018; Published: June 30, 2018  Show citation

ACS AIP APA ASA Harvard Chicago IEEE ISO690 MLA NLM Turabian Vancouver
Virág K, Nyári TA. Annual and seasonal trends in mortality rates from cardiovascular diseases in Hungary between 1984 and 2013. Cent Eur J Public Health. 2018;26(2):124-131. doi: 10.21101/cejph.a4928. PubMed PMID: 30102501.
Share...
Download citation
  • BibTeX (.bib)
  • Bookends (.ris)
  • EasyBib (.ris)
  • EndNote (.enw)
  • EndNote 8 (.xml)
  • ISI WoS (.isi)
  • Medlars (.medlars)
  • Mendeley (.ris)
  • MODS (.xml)
  • Papers (.ris)
  • RefWorks (.txt)
  • RefManager (.ris)
  • RIS (.ris)
  • MS Word (.xml)
  • Zotero (.ris)
    • Open full article

    References

    1. Townsend N, Nichols M, Scarborough P, Rayner M. Cardiovascular disease in Europe - epidemiological update 2015. Eur Heart J. 2015;36(40):2696-705. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    2. Hungarian Central Statistical Office. Demographic Yearbook 1984-2013 [Internet]. Budapest: Hungarian Central Statistical Office [cited 2018 May 14]. Available from: https://www.ksh.hu/?lang=en.
    3. Day NE. A New measure of age standardized incidence, the cumulative rate. In: Waterhouse J, Muir C, Correa P, Powell J, editors. Cancer incidence in five continents. Vol. III. IARC scientific publications, no. 15. Lyon: IARC; 1976. p. 443-52.
    4. Fay MP, Feuer EJ. Confidence intervals for directly standardized rates: a method based on the gamma distribution. Stat Med. 1997;16(7):791-801. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    5. Standardized rates and age-period-cohort analysis. In: Newmwn SC. Biostatistical methods in epidemiology. New York: John Wiley & Sons; 2001. p. 249-61.
    6. Walter SD, Elwood JM. A test for seasonality of events with a variable population at risk. Br J Prev Soc Med. 1975;29(1):18-21. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    7. Stolwijk AM, Straatman H, Zielhuis GA. Studying seasonality by using sine and cosine functions in regression analysis. J Epidemiol Community Health. 1999;53(4):235-8. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    8. StataCorp. Stata statistical software. Release 13. College Station: StataCorp LP; 2013.
    9. Rahimi K, Duncan M, Pitcher A, Emdin CA, Goldacre MJ. Mortality from heart failure, acute myocardial infarction and other ischaemic heart disease in England and Oxford: a trend study of multiple-cause-coded death certification. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2015;69(10):1000-5. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    10. Ma J, Ward EM, Siegel RL, Jemal A. Temporal trends in mortality in the United States, 1969-2013. JAMA. 2015;314(16):1731-9. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    11. Backholer K, Steven C, Nusselder WJ, Boyko EJ, Moon L, Tonkin A. Age-specific trends in cardiovascular mortality rates in Australia between 1980 and 2005. Australas Epidemiol. 2011;18(1):33-7.
    12. Svihrova V, Barakova A, Szaboova V, Kamensky G, Hudeckova H. Trends in standardized mortality rates for select groups of cardiovascular diseases in Slovakia between 1980 and 2010. Public Health. 2016;130:43-50. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    13. Vujcic IS, Sipetic SB, Dubljanin ES, Vlajinac HD. Trends in mortality rates from coronary heart disease in Belgrade (Serbia) during the period 1990-2010: a joinpoint regression analysis. BMC Cardiovasc Disord. 2013 Dec 9;13:112. doi: 10.1186/1471-2261-13-112. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    14. Bandosz P, O'Flaherty M, Drygas W, Rutkowski M, Koziarek J, Wyrzykowski B, et al. Decline in mortality from coronary heart disease in Poland after socioeconomic transformation: modelling study. BMJ. 2012 Jan 25;344:d8136. doi: 10.1136/bmj.d8136. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    15. Bálint L. To what extent does Hungarian mortality fit the theory of epidemiological transition? Demográfia. 2016;59(1):5-57. (In Hungarian.) Go to original source...
    16. Feigin VL, Krishnamurthi RV, Parmar P, Norrving B, Mensah GA, Bennett DA, et al. Update on the global burden of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke in 1990-2013: The GBD 2013 Study. Neuroepidemiology. 2015;45(3):161-76. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    17. Aylin P, Morris S, Wakefield J, Grossinho A, Jarup L, Elliott P. Temperature, housing, deprivation and their relationship to excess winter mortality in Great Britain, 1986-1996. Int J Epidemiol. 2001;30(5):1100-8. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    18. Boulay F, Berthier F, Sisteron O, Gendreike Y, Gibelin P. Seasonal variation in chronic heart failure hospitalizations and mortality in France. Circulation. 1999;100(3):280-6. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    19. Stewart S, McIntyre K, Capewell S, McMurray JJ. Heart failure in a cold climate. Seasonal variation in heart failure-related morbidity and mortality. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2002;39(5):760-6. Go to original source...
    20. Barnett AG, de Looper M, Fraser JF. The seasonality in heart failure deaths and total cardiovascular deaths. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2008;32(5):408-13. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    21. Nakaji S, Parodi S, Fontana V, Umeda T, Suzuki K, Sakamoto J, et al. Seasonal changes in mortality rates from main causes of death in Japan (1970-1999). Eur J Epidemiol. 2004;19(10):905-13. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    22. Warren-Gash C, Smeeth L, Hayward AC. Influenza as a trigger for acute myocardial infarction or death from cardiovascular disease: a systematic review. Lancet Infect Dis. 2009;9(10):601-10. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...
    23. The Eurowinter Group. Cold exposure and winter mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, respiratory disease, and all causes in warm and cold regions of Europe. Lancet. 1997;349(9062):1341-6. Go to original source...
    24. Marti-Soler H, Gubelmann C, Aeschbacher S, Alves L, Bobak M, Bongard V, et al. Seasonality of cardiovascular risk factors: an analysis including over 230 000 participants in 15 countries. Heart. 2014;100(19):1517-23. Go to original source... Go to PubMed...

    Return to the content