Research Article
Mobilization Follies in International Relations: A Multimethod Exploration of Why Some Decision Makers Fail to Avoid War When Public Mobilization as a Bargaining Tool Fails
Abstract
This
paper is intended to serve as a show and tell model for graduate students.
Sections in parentheses and italics provide a running commentary by the author
on the decisions taken throughout the paper. The goal is to permit students to
follow the thinking of the researcher and see how it guided the theoretical,
methodological and other decisions on content that finally made it into the
paper. The paper in question explores how “public” military mobilization can be
an attempt by weak actors to trigger intervention by third parties in a dispute
with a stronger actor, in the hopes that the third parties will force the
stronger actor to accommodate the weaker actor. This attempt is called
“compellence via proxy”. In this research I explore why in reaction to failure,
some weak actors are able to avoid escalation to war, while others are not. I
posit that the flexibility of the decision makers of the weak actors is
influenced by their ability to overhaul their winning coalition. A large-n
evaluation of 68 cases of “public” mobilization, and an evaluation of six
Balkan state mobilizations in the 1878-1909 era, do not support the idea that
the size of the winning coalition, a part of the factors determining overhaul,
has an association with war onset or its avoidance.
References
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- Albjerg, L. Victor, and Esther M.H. Albjerg. From Sedan to Stresa: Europe since 1870. New York: D. Van Nostrand Company, 1937.
- Ashmead Bartlett, Ellis. The Battlefields of Thessaly: With Personal Experiences from Greece and Turkey. London: J. Murray, 1897, reprinted in 1999.
- Barry, Quintin. War in the East: A Military History of the Russo–Turkish War 1877–78. Wokingham: Helion and Company, 2012.
- Braumoeller, Bear F. The Great Powers and the International System: Systemic Theory in Empirical Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
- Brown, E. Micheal, Owen R. Cote Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, eds. Offense-Defense and War. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2004.
- Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge: MIT University Press, 2003.
- Clausewitz, Carl Von. On War. Translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976.
- Clark, Christopher. The Sleepwalkers. New York: Harper-Collins, 2012.
- Fearon, James D. “Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38, no. 2 (1994): 236–69.
- Fearon, James D.“Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379–414.
- German Staff Officer. Modern Warfare as Illustrated by the Greek-Turkish War. London: Swan Sonnenschein Publications, 1900.
- Gerring, John. “What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good for?” American Political Science Review 98, no. 2 (2004): 341–54.
- Gill, Jeff. “The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing.” Political Research Quarterly 52, no. 3 (1999): 647–74.
- Ghosn, Faten, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. “The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21, no. 2 (2004): 133–54.
- Greek General Staff-Army History Directorate. I historia tis organosis tou Hellinikou Stratou 1821–1954 [History of the organistion of the Greek Army 1821–1954]. Athens: Army History Directorate Publications, 2005.
- ———. O Ellino–Tourkikos polemos tou 1897 [The Greek–Turkish War of 1897]. Athens: Army History Directorate Publications, 1993.
- Healey, Joseph F. Statistics: A Tool for Social Research. Boston: Cengage Learning, 2014.
- Karykas, Pantelis. Hellinikos Stratos 1821–1922 [Greek Army 1821–1922]. Athens: Epikoinonies, 2001.
- King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. “Explaining Rare Events in International Relations.” International Organization 55, no. 3 (2001): 693–715.
- Lai, Brian. “The Effects of Different Types of Military Mobilization On The Outcome of International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 2 (2001): 211–29.
- Levine, R., Timothy Rene Weber, Craig Hullett, Hee Sun Park, and Lisa L. Massi Lindsey. “A Critical Assessment of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing in Quantitative Communication Research.” Human Communication Research 34, no. 2 (2008): 171–87.
- Mackey, Kyle. “Prewar Mobilization and the Termination of Interstate Wars.” SSRN, January 26, 2014. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2385749.
- Mansbach, W. Richard, and John A.Vasquez. In Search of Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1981.
- Marshall, G. Monty, Ted R. Gurr, and Keith Jaggers. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2015. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace, 2016.
- Mavrogordatos, Yeorgios. 1915 O ethnikos dihasmos [1915 The national schism]. Athens: Pataki Publications, 2015.
- Palmer, Frederick. Going to War in Greece. New York: R.H. Russell, 1897.
- Palmer, Glenn, Vito D'Orazio, Michael Kenwick, and Matthew Lane. “The MID4 Data Set: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 32, no. 2 (2015): 222–42.
- Powell, Robert. “Bargaining and Learning While Fighting.” American Journal of Political Science 48, no. 2 (2004): 344–61.
- ———. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60, no. 1 (2006): 169–203.
- Regenspursly, Colonel. The Serbo-Bulgarian War of 1885-Combat at Slivnitsa. Ohio: The Nafziger Collection, 2007.
- Rich, Norman. Great Power Diplomacy, 1814–1914. Boston: McGraw-Hill, 1992.
- Sarkees, R. Meredith, and Frank Wayman. Resort to War: 1816 –2007. Washington DC: CQ Press, 2010.
- Senese, D. Paul, and John A.Vasquez. The Steps to War: An Empirical Study. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008.
- Siverson, M. Randolph, and Harvey Starr. “Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War.” American Political Science Review 84, no. 1 (1990): 47–67.
- Slantchev, L. Branislav. “Military Coercion in Interstate Crises.” American Political Science Review 99, no. 4 (2005): 533–47.
- Snyder, Jack. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and Strategic Ideology. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991.
- Tarar, Ahmer. “Military Mobilization and Commitment Problems.” International Interactions 39, no. 3 (2013): 343–66.
- Venizelos, Elefterios, and Ioannis Metaxas. H Historia tou Ethnikou Dihasmou kata tin arthografia tou Elefteriou Venizelou kai Ioannou Metaxa [The History of the National Schism via the articles written by Elefterios Venizelos and Ioannis Metaxas]. Athens: Kyromanos Editions, 2010.
- Wilkenfeld, Jonathan , Michael Brecher, Joseph Hewitt, Kyle Beardsley, and Pelin Eralp. “ICB Data Viewer.” ICB Project. Accessed December 11, 2017. http://www.icb.umd.edu/dataviewer/.
Year 2019,
Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 359 - 385, 01.07.2019
Abstract
References
- Albertini, Luigi. The Origins of the War of 1914. Vol. 1. London: Oxford University Press, 1952.
- Albjerg, L. Victor, and Esther M.H. Albjerg. From Sedan to Stresa: Europe since 1870. New York: D. Van Nostrand Company, 1937.
- Ashmead Bartlett, Ellis. The Battlefields of Thessaly: With Personal Experiences from Greece and Turkey. London: J. Murray, 1897, reprinted in 1999.
- Barry, Quintin. War in the East: A Military History of the Russo–Turkish War 1877–78. Wokingham: Helion and Company, 2012.
- Braumoeller, Bear F. The Great Powers and the International System: Systemic Theory in Empirical Perspective. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
- Brown, E. Micheal, Owen R. Cote Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones, and Steven E. Miller, eds. Offense-Defense and War. Cambridge: MIT Press, 2004.
- Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Alastair Smith, Randolph M. Siverson, and James D. Morrow. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge: MIT University Press, 2003.
- Clausewitz, Carl Von. On War. Translated by Michael Howard and Peter Paret. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1976.
- Clark, Christopher. The Sleepwalkers. New York: Harper-Collins, 2012.
- Fearon, James D. “Signaling versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 38, no. 2 (1994): 236–69.
- Fearon, James D.“Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49, no. 3 (1995): 379–414.
- German Staff Officer. Modern Warfare as Illustrated by the Greek-Turkish War. London: Swan Sonnenschein Publications, 1900.
- Gerring, John. “What Is a Case Study and What Is It Good for?” American Political Science Review 98, no. 2 (2004): 341–54.
- Gill, Jeff. “The Insignificance of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing.” Political Research Quarterly 52, no. 3 (1999): 647–74.
- Ghosn, Faten, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer. “The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21, no. 2 (2004): 133–54.
- Greek General Staff-Army History Directorate. I historia tis organosis tou Hellinikou Stratou 1821–1954 [History of the organistion of the Greek Army 1821–1954]. Athens: Army History Directorate Publications, 2005.
- ———. O Ellino–Tourkikos polemos tou 1897 [The Greek–Turkish War of 1897]. Athens: Army History Directorate Publications, 1993.
- Healey, Joseph F. Statistics: A Tool for Social Research. Boston: Cengage Learning, 2014.
- Karykas, Pantelis. Hellinikos Stratos 1821–1922 [Greek Army 1821–1922]. Athens: Epikoinonies, 2001.
- King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. “Explaining Rare Events in International Relations.” International Organization 55, no. 3 (2001): 693–715.
- Lai, Brian. “The Effects of Different Types of Military Mobilization On The Outcome of International Crises.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 48, no. 2 (2001): 211–29.
- Levine, R., Timothy Rene Weber, Craig Hullett, Hee Sun Park, and Lisa L. Massi Lindsey. “A Critical Assessment of Null Hypothesis Significance Testing in Quantitative Communication Research.” Human Communication Research 34, no. 2 (2008): 171–87.
- Mackey, Kyle. “Prewar Mobilization and the Termination of Interstate Wars.” SSRN, January 26, 2014. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2385749.
- Mansbach, W. Richard, and John A.Vasquez. In Search of Theory: A New Paradigm for Global Politics. New York: Columbia University Press, 1981.
- Marshall, G. Monty, Ted R. Gurr, and Keith Jaggers. Polity IV Project: Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2015. Vienna, VA: Center for Systemic Peace, 2016.
- Mavrogordatos, Yeorgios. 1915 O ethnikos dihasmos [1915 The national schism]. Athens: Pataki Publications, 2015.
- Palmer, Frederick. Going to War in Greece. New York: R.H. Russell, 1897.
- Palmer, Glenn, Vito D'Orazio, Michael Kenwick, and Matthew Lane. “The MID4 Data Set: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 32, no. 2 (2015): 222–42.
- Powell, Robert. “Bargaining and Learning While Fighting.” American Journal of Political Science 48, no. 2 (2004): 344–61.
- ———. “War as a Commitment Problem.” International Organization 60, no. 1 (2006): 169–203.
- Regenspursly, Colonel. The Serbo-Bulgarian War of 1885-Combat at Slivnitsa. Ohio: The Nafziger Collection, 2007.
- Rich, Norman. Great Power Diplomacy, 1814–1914. Boston: McGraw-Hill, 1992.
- Sarkees, R. Meredith, and Frank Wayman. Resort to War: 1816 –2007. Washington DC: CQ Press, 2010.
- Senese, D. Paul, and John A.Vasquez. The Steps to War: An Empirical Study. Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2008.
- Siverson, M. Randolph, and Harvey Starr. “Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War.” American Political Science Review 84, no. 1 (1990): 47–67.
- Slantchev, L. Branislav. “Military Coercion in Interstate Crises.” American Political Science Review 99, no. 4 (2005): 533–47.
- Snyder, Jack. Myths of Empire: Domestic Politics and Strategic Ideology. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1991.
- Tarar, Ahmer. “Military Mobilization and Commitment Problems.” International Interactions 39, no. 3 (2013): 343–66.
- Venizelos, Elefterios, and Ioannis Metaxas. H Historia tou Ethnikou Dihasmou kata tin arthografia tou Elefteriou Venizelou kai Ioannou Metaxa [The History of the National Schism via the articles written by Elefterios Venizelos and Ioannis Metaxas]. Athens: Kyromanos Editions, 2010.
- Wilkenfeld, Jonathan , Michael Brecher, Joseph Hewitt, Kyle Beardsley, and Pelin Eralp. “ICB Data Viewer.” ICB Project. Accessed December 11, 2017. http://www.icb.umd.edu/dataviewer/.
There are 40 citations in total.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | July 1, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 Volume: 8 Issue: 2 |
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‘Global’ IR and Self-Reflections in Turkey: Methodology, Data Collection, and Data Repository
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