Age-Structured Effect of Evolution on Hepatitis B Vaccination in Bangladesh
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18034/ra.v8i2.455Keywords:
HBV infection, Force of infection, Immunization, Stability, Hepatocellular, Disease dynamics, Disease-endemic equilibrium, Residual infectionsAbstract
The goal of this examine is to model the age-time established prevalence of hepatitis B whilst estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time series have been used before to version hepatitis B cases in the absence of know-how on the wide variety of susceptible, this paper proposes to apply a way that fits into the generalized additive version framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to make the most the underlying continuity of each age and time in a bendy nonparametric way. Primarily based on a unique case notification dataset, it's far proven that the implemented immunization programme in Bangladesh ended in a huge lower in incidence for babies in their first year of existence with 82% (79%-84%). Moreover, its miles proved that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percent; a clean force of infection profile can be received from which two local maxima had been determined at ages 9 and 24.
Downloads
References
Aerts M, Claeskens G, Wand MP. Some theory for penalized spline additive models. Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference 2002; 103: 455-470.
Agresti A. Categorical Data Analysis. Wiley & Sons, 2002.
Akaike H. Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. In: Petrov B, Csaki F. (eds.) Budapest: Akademia Kiado 1973: 267-281.
Anderson RM, May RM. Age-related changes in the rate of disease transmission: implications for the design of vaccination programmes. J Hyg (Lond) 1985; 94: 365-435.
Beutels P et al. Hepatitis B in St Petersburg, Russia (1994-1999): incidence, prevalence and force of infection. Journal of Viral Hepatitis 2003; 10: 141-149.
Craven P, Wahba G. Smoothing noisy data with spline functions. Numerische Mathematik 1979; 31: 377-403.
Currie I, Durban M, Eilers P. Smoothing and forecasting mortality rates.Statistical Modelling 2004; 4: 279-298.
Edmunds WJ, Medley GF, Nokes DJ. The influence of age on the development of the hepatitis B carrier state. In: Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences 1993; 253: 197-201
Fine PEM. Herd immunity: history, theory, practice. Epidemiol Rev 1993; 15: 265-302.
FizSimons D et al. Strengthening immunization systems and introduction of hepatitis B vaccine in central and Eastern Europe and the Newly Independent States. Viral Hepatitis Prevention Board, University of Antwerp 2005.
Frome EL, Checkoway H. Epidemiologic programs for computers and calculators. Use of Poisson regression models in estimating incidence rates and ratios. American Journal of Epidemiology 1985; 121: 309-323.
Hastie T Tibshirani R. Generalized additive models: some applications. Journal of the American Statistical Association 1987; 82: 371-386.
Hastie T, Tibshirani R. Generalized Additive Models. Chapman and Hall 1990.
Held L, Hofmann M, Höhle M, Schmid V. A two component model for counts of infectious diseases. Biostatis-tics 2006; 7: 422-437.
Held L, Höhle M, Hofmann M. A statistical framework for the analysis of multivariate infectious disease sur-veillance data. Statistical Modelling 2005; 5: 187-199.
Huang C, Wang Y, Li X, Ren L, Zhao J, Hu Y, et al. Clinical features of patients infected with 2019 HBV, Chi-na. Lancet. 2020.
Li Q, Guan X, Wu P, Wang X, Zhou L, Tong Y, et al. Early transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China, of HBV infected pneumonia. N Engl J Med. 2020.
Marx BD, Eilers PHC. Direct generalized additive modelling with penalized likelihood. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 1998; 28: 193-209.
McCullagh P, Nelder J. Generalized Linear Models. Chapman & Hall 1989.
McMahon BJ, Alward WLM, Hall DB. Acute hepatitis B virus infection: relation of age to the clinical expres-sion of disease and subsequent development of the carrier state. Journal of Infectious Diseases 1985; 15: 604-609.
RDC Team R: A language and environment for statistical computing 2004.
Shapiro CN. Epidemiology of hepatitis B. Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal 1993; 12: 443-447.
Smith L, Hyndman RJ, Wood SN. Spline interpolation for demographic variables: the monotonicity problem. Journal of population research 2004; 21: 95-98.
Thurston S, Wand M, Wiencke J. Negative binomial additive models.Biometrics 2000; 56: 139-144.
Wahba G. Spline bases, regularization, and generalized cross validation for solving approximation problems with large quantities of noisy data. In: Cheney, W. (ed.) Approximation Theory III, Academic Press 1980: 905-912.
Wahba G. Spline Models for Observational Data CBMS-NSF series. In: SIAM, Philadelphia, 1990.
Wallinga J et al. Estimation of measles reproduction ratios and prospects for elimination of measles by vac-cination in some Western European countries. Epidemiology and Infection 2001; 127: 281-295.
Wood SN. mgcv: GAMs and Generalized Ridge Regression for R. R News 2001; 1: 20-25.
Wood SN. Modelling and Smoothing Parameter Estimation with Multiple Quadratic Penalties. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 2000; 62: 413-428.
Wood SN. Stable and efficient multiple smoothing parameter estimation for generalized additive models. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2005.
Wood SN. Thin Plate Regression Splines. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society 2003; 65: 95-114.
World Health Organization. World Health Organization cited January 19, 2020. Zhou P, Yang XL, Wang XG, Hu B, Zhang L, Zhang W, et al. A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new HBV of probable bat origin. Nature. 2020.
--0--
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
ABC Research Alert is an Open Access journal. Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a CC BY-NC 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of their work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal. We require authors to inform us of any instances of re-publication.
