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TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ

Yıl 2017, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 3, 0 - 0, 07.09.2017
https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.337652

Öz

Barajların taşkın dalgasıyla üstten aşılması tarihte en sık rastlanan baraj göçme nedenlerinden birisidir. Bu çalışmada, Tanyeri Barajı’nın üstten aşılma güvenilirliği olasılık yöntemlerle değerlendirilmiştir. Bu amaçla Monte Carlo benzeşimiyle iki değişkenli taşkın hidrografları ile taşkın öncesindeki hazne su seviyeleri rastgele olarak üretilmiş ve maksimum taşkın dalgası seviyesinin barajın kret seviyesini geçme olasılığı elde edilmiştir. Ele alınan çeşitli senaryolarda dolusavağın ve dipsavağın çalışmadığı durum dahi göz önüne alınmış ve çeşitli değerlendirilmelerde bulunulmuştur. Analiz sonuçlarına göre Tanyeri Barajı’nın dolusavağı çalışırken 10000 yıllık tekerrür süresine sahip olası taşkınlarda bile üstten aşılma olasılığının bulunmadığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Ayrıca taşkın anındaki maksimum hazne su seviyesinin taşkın öncesindeki hazne su seviyesine doğrudan bağlı olduğu gösterilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • United States Bureau of Reclamation. Teton Dam History. Reclamation. http://www.usbr.gov/pn/snakeriver/dams/uppersnake/teton/index.html. Erişim tarihi Haziran 16, 2016.
  • Parker D.J., Floods, Routledge, Oxfordshire, İngiltere, 2000.
  • Fry J., Vogel A., Royet P. ve Courivaud J., Dam failures by erosion : lessons from ERINOH data bases, 6th International Conference on Scour and Erosion, Paris-Fransa, 273–280, 27-32 Ağustos, 2012.
  • Foster M., Fell R. ve Spannagle M., The statistics of embankment dam failures and accidents, Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 37 (5), 1000–1024, 2000.
  • ICOLD, Dam Break flood analysis - Review and recommendations, Volume 111 of Bulletin, International Commission on Large Dams, 1998.
  • Şarlak N., Tiğrek Ş., Flood Frequency Analysis: Case Study of Göksu River and Karaktepe Dam, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 31 (4), 1095-1103, 2016.
  • Saka F., Yüksek Ö., Regionalisation of discharges having certain exceedance probabilities and Eastern Black Sea Basin sample, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 32 (2), 335-342, 2017.
  • Seçkin N., Topçu E., Regional frequency analysis of annual peak rainfall of adana and the vicinity, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 31 (4), 1049-1062, 2016.
  • Cunnane C., Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 100 (1), 269–290, 1988.
  • Bobee B. ve Rasmussen P.F., Statistical analysis of annual flood series, Council of Scientific Research Integration, Hindistan, 1994.
  • Yue S., A bivariate gamma distribution for use in multivariate flood frequency analysis, Hydrological Processes, 15 (6), 1033–1045, 2001.
  • Yue S. ve Rasmussen P., Bivariate frequency analysis: discussion of some useful concepts in hydrological application, Hydrol. Processes, 16 (14), 2881–2898, 2002.
  • De Michele C., Salvadori G., Canossi M., Petaccia A. ve Rosso R., Bivariate Statistical Approach to Check Adequacy of Dam Spillway, J. Hydrol. Eng., 10 (1), 50–57, 2005.
  • Calamak M., Melih Yanmaz A. ve Kentel E., Probabilistic evaluation of the effects of uncertainty in transient seepage parameters, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng, 143 (9), 06017009-1 - 06017009-6, 2017.
  • Calamak M. ve Yanmaz A.M., Uncertainty quantification of transient unsaturated seepage through embankment dams, Int. J. Geomech., 17 (6), 04016125-1 - 04016125-11, 2017.
  • Erdik T., Duricic J. ve van Gelder P.H.A.J.M., The probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability on Akyayık dam, KSCE J. Civ. Eng., 17 (7), 1810–1819, 2013.
  • Goodarzi E., Mirzaei M. ve Ziaei M., Evaluation of dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analyses, Can. J. Civ. Eng., 39 (4), 374–387, 2012.
  • Yanmaz A.M. ve Günindi M.E., Assessment of overtopping reliability and benefits of a flood detention dam, Can. J. Civ. Eng., 35 (10), 1177–1182, 2008.
  • Kwon H.H. ve Moon Y.I., Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 20 (4), 223–237, 2005.
  • Tung Y.K. ve Mays L.W., Risk models for flood levee design, Water Resour. Res., 17 (4), 833–841, 1981.
  • Cheng S.T., Yen B.C. ve Tang W.H., Overtopping probability for an existing dam, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, A.B.D., 1982.
  • Yen B.C. ve Tung Y.K., Statistics of dam failure, Reliability and Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic Design, ASCE Publications, New York, 1993.
  • DOKAY, Fatsa HES (Tanyeri Barajı ve Kavşak HES, Bolaman Barajı ve HES), malzeme ocakları ve kırma eleme tesisi projesi çevresel etki değerlendirme raporu, DOKAY Mühendislik ve Danışmanlık Ltd. Şti., Ankara, 2013.
  • Stucky Teknik, Tanyeri Barajı Doğal Akımları, Stucky Teknik Müh., Müş, Ltd. Şti., Ankara, 2012.
  • Yanmaz A.M., Applied Water Resources Engineering, 4th Edition, METU Press, Ankara, 2013.
  • Stucky Teknik, Fatsa HES Projeleri Tanyeri Barajı Kot-Hacim-Alan ve Boşaltım Eğrileri, , Stucky Teknik Müh., Müş, Ltd. Şti., Ankara, 2012.
  • Tung Y.K. ve Yen B.C., Hydrosystems Engineering Uncertainty Analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York, A.B.D., 2005.
  • Sackl B. ve Bergmann H., A Bivariate Flood Model and Its Application BT - Hydrologic Frequency Modeling, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, A.B.D. 571–582, 14–17 Mayıs, 1986.
  • Escalante-Sanboval C.A. ve Raynal-Villasenor J.A., Multivariate estimation of floods: the trivariate gumbel distribution, J. Stat. Comput. Simul., 61 (4), 313–340, 1998.
  • Yue S., The bivariate lognormal distribution to model a multivariate flood episode, Hydrol. Process., 14 (14), 2575–2588, 2000.
  • Yue S., The bivariate lognormal distribution for describing joint statistical properties of a multivariate storm event, Environmetrics, 13 (8), 811–819, 2002.
  • Yue S., Ouarda T.B.M.J. ve Bobee B., A review of bivariate gamma distributions for hydrological application, J. Hydrol., 246 (1–4), 1–18, 2001.
  • Stedinger J.R., Vogel R.M. ve Foufoula-Georgiou E., Frequency analysis of extreme events, Handbook of Hydrology, D. R. Maidment, Ed., McGraw Hill, New York, A.B.D., 1993.
  • Bobee B. ve Ashkar F., The gamma family and derived distributions applied in hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Colorado, A.B.D. 1991.
  • Mediero L., Jiménez-Álvarez A. ve Garrote L., Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14 (12), 2495–2505, 2010.
  • Seçkin N., Haktanır T. ve Yurtal R., Flood frequency analysis of Turkey using L-moments method, Hydrol. Process., 25 (22), 3499–3505, 2011.
  • Bayazıt M., Shaban F. ve Önöz B., Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for Flood Discharges, Turkish J. Eng. Environ. Sci., 21 (2), 69–73, 1997.
  • Horn D., Graphic Estimation of Peak Flow Reduction in Reservoirs, J. Hydraul. Eng., 113 (11), 1441–1450, 1987.
  • Aldama A.A. ve Ramirez A.I., A new approach for dam design flood estimation, 28th IAHR World Congress, Graz-Austria, 22–27 Ağustos, 1999.
  • Chow V.T., Handbook of Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York, A.B.D., 1964.
  • Yanmaz A.M. ve Çalamak M., Evaluation of scour risk at foundations of river bridges, Teknik Dergi/Technical J. Turkish Chamb. Civ. Eng., 27 (3), 7533–7549, 2016.
Yıl 2017, Cilt: 32 Sayı: 3, 0 - 0, 07.09.2017
https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.337652

Öz

Kaynakça

  • United States Bureau of Reclamation. Teton Dam History. Reclamation. http://www.usbr.gov/pn/snakeriver/dams/uppersnake/teton/index.html. Erişim tarihi Haziran 16, 2016.
  • Parker D.J., Floods, Routledge, Oxfordshire, İngiltere, 2000.
  • Fry J., Vogel A., Royet P. ve Courivaud J., Dam failures by erosion : lessons from ERINOH data bases, 6th International Conference on Scour and Erosion, Paris-Fransa, 273–280, 27-32 Ağustos, 2012.
  • Foster M., Fell R. ve Spannagle M., The statistics of embankment dam failures and accidents, Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 37 (5), 1000–1024, 2000.
  • ICOLD, Dam Break flood analysis - Review and recommendations, Volume 111 of Bulletin, International Commission on Large Dams, 1998.
  • Şarlak N., Tiğrek Ş., Flood Frequency Analysis: Case Study of Göksu River and Karaktepe Dam, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 31 (4), 1095-1103, 2016.
  • Saka F., Yüksek Ö., Regionalisation of discharges having certain exceedance probabilities and Eastern Black Sea Basin sample, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 32 (2), 335-342, 2017.
  • Seçkin N., Topçu E., Regional frequency analysis of annual peak rainfall of adana and the vicinity, Journal of the Faculty of Engineering and Architecture of Gazi University, 31 (4), 1049-1062, 2016.
  • Cunnane C., Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 100 (1), 269–290, 1988.
  • Bobee B. ve Rasmussen P.F., Statistical analysis of annual flood series, Council of Scientific Research Integration, Hindistan, 1994.
  • Yue S., A bivariate gamma distribution for use in multivariate flood frequency analysis, Hydrological Processes, 15 (6), 1033–1045, 2001.
  • Yue S. ve Rasmussen P., Bivariate frequency analysis: discussion of some useful concepts in hydrological application, Hydrol. Processes, 16 (14), 2881–2898, 2002.
  • De Michele C., Salvadori G., Canossi M., Petaccia A. ve Rosso R., Bivariate Statistical Approach to Check Adequacy of Dam Spillway, J. Hydrol. Eng., 10 (1), 50–57, 2005.
  • Calamak M., Melih Yanmaz A. ve Kentel E., Probabilistic evaluation of the effects of uncertainty in transient seepage parameters, J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng, 143 (9), 06017009-1 - 06017009-6, 2017.
  • Calamak M. ve Yanmaz A.M., Uncertainty quantification of transient unsaturated seepage through embankment dams, Int. J. Geomech., 17 (6), 04016125-1 - 04016125-11, 2017.
  • Erdik T., Duricic J. ve van Gelder P.H.A.J.M., The probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability on Akyayık dam, KSCE J. Civ. Eng., 17 (7), 1810–1819, 2013.
  • Goodarzi E., Mirzaei M. ve Ziaei M., Evaluation of dam overtopping risk based on univariate and bivariate flood frequency analyses, Can. J. Civ. Eng., 39 (4), 374–387, 2012.
  • Yanmaz A.M. ve Günindi M.E., Assessment of overtopping reliability and benefits of a flood detention dam, Can. J. Civ. Eng., 35 (10), 1177–1182, 2008.
  • Kwon H.H. ve Moon Y.I., Improvement of overtopping risk evaluations using probabilistic concepts for existing dams, Stoch. Environ. Res. Risk Assess., 20 (4), 223–237, 2005.
  • Tung Y.K. ve Mays L.W., Risk models for flood levee design, Water Resour. Res., 17 (4), 833–841, 1981.
  • Cheng S.T., Yen B.C. ve Tang W.H., Overtopping probability for an existing dam, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, A.B.D., 1982.
  • Yen B.C. ve Tung Y.K., Statistics of dam failure, Reliability and Uncertainty Analysis in Hydraulic Design, ASCE Publications, New York, 1993.
  • DOKAY, Fatsa HES (Tanyeri Barajı ve Kavşak HES, Bolaman Barajı ve HES), malzeme ocakları ve kırma eleme tesisi projesi çevresel etki değerlendirme raporu, DOKAY Mühendislik ve Danışmanlık Ltd. Şti., Ankara, 2013.
  • Stucky Teknik, Tanyeri Barajı Doğal Akımları, Stucky Teknik Müh., Müş, Ltd. Şti., Ankara, 2012.
  • Yanmaz A.M., Applied Water Resources Engineering, 4th Edition, METU Press, Ankara, 2013.
  • Stucky Teknik, Fatsa HES Projeleri Tanyeri Barajı Kot-Hacim-Alan ve Boşaltım Eğrileri, , Stucky Teknik Müh., Müş, Ltd. Şti., Ankara, 2012.
  • Tung Y.K. ve Yen B.C., Hydrosystems Engineering Uncertainty Analysis, McGraw-Hill, New York, A.B.D., 2005.
  • Sackl B. ve Bergmann H., A Bivariate Flood Model and Its Application BT - Hydrologic Frequency Modeling, Proceedings of the International Symposium on Flood Frequency and Risk Analyses, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, A.B.D. 571–582, 14–17 Mayıs, 1986.
  • Escalante-Sanboval C.A. ve Raynal-Villasenor J.A., Multivariate estimation of floods: the trivariate gumbel distribution, J. Stat. Comput. Simul., 61 (4), 313–340, 1998.
  • Yue S., The bivariate lognormal distribution to model a multivariate flood episode, Hydrol. Process., 14 (14), 2575–2588, 2000.
  • Yue S., The bivariate lognormal distribution for describing joint statistical properties of a multivariate storm event, Environmetrics, 13 (8), 811–819, 2002.
  • Yue S., Ouarda T.B.M.J. ve Bobee B., A review of bivariate gamma distributions for hydrological application, J. Hydrol., 246 (1–4), 1–18, 2001.
  • Stedinger J.R., Vogel R.M. ve Foufoula-Georgiou E., Frequency analysis of extreme events, Handbook of Hydrology, D. R. Maidment, Ed., McGraw Hill, New York, A.B.D., 1993.
  • Bobee B. ve Ashkar F., The gamma family and derived distributions applied in hydrology, Water Resources Publications, Colorado, A.B.D. 1991.
  • Mediero L., Jiménez-Álvarez A. ve Garrote L., Design flood hydrographs from the relationship between flood peak and volume, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 14 (12), 2495–2505, 2010.
  • Seçkin N., Haktanır T. ve Yurtal R., Flood frequency analysis of Turkey using L-moments method, Hydrol. Process., 25 (22), 3499–3505, 2011.
  • Bayazıt M., Shaban F. ve Önöz B., Generalized Extreme Value Distribution for Flood Discharges, Turkish J. Eng. Environ. Sci., 21 (2), 69–73, 1997.
  • Horn D., Graphic Estimation of Peak Flow Reduction in Reservoirs, J. Hydraul. Eng., 113 (11), 1441–1450, 1987.
  • Aldama A.A. ve Ramirez A.I., A new approach for dam design flood estimation, 28th IAHR World Congress, Graz-Austria, 22–27 Ağustos, 1999.
  • Chow V.T., Handbook of Applied Hydrology, McGraw-Hill, New York, A.B.D., 1964.
  • Yanmaz A.M. ve Çalamak M., Evaluation of scour risk at foundations of river bridges, Teknik Dergi/Technical J. Turkish Chamb. Civ. Eng., 27 (3), 7533–7549, 2016.
Toplam 41 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Melih Çalamak

Yayımlanma Tarihi 7 Eylül 2017
Gönderilme Tarihi 28 Haziran 2016
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2017 Cilt: 32 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Çalamak, M. (2017). TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, 32(3). https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.337652
AMA Çalamak M. TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ. GUMMFD. Eylül 2017;32(3). doi:10.17341/gazimmfd.337652
Chicago Çalamak, Melih. “TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ”. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi 32, sy. 3 (Eylül 2017). https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.337652.
EndNote Çalamak M (01 Eylül 2017) TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi 32 3
IEEE M. Çalamak, “TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ”, GUMMFD, c. 32, sy. 3, 2017, doi: 10.17341/gazimmfd.337652.
ISNAD Çalamak, Melih. “TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ”. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi 32/3 (Eylül 2017). https://doi.org/10.17341/gazimmfd.337652.
JAMA Çalamak M. TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ. GUMMFD. 2017;32. doi:10.17341/gazimmfd.337652.
MLA Çalamak, Melih. “TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ”. Gazi Üniversitesi Mühendislik Mimarlık Fakültesi Dergisi, c. 32, sy. 3, 2017, doi:10.17341/gazimmfd.337652.
Vancouver Çalamak M. TANYERİ BARAJI ÖRNEĞİNDE BARAJLARIN TAŞKIN NEDENİYLE ÜSTTEN AŞILMA GÜVENİLİRLİĞİNİN BELİRLENMESİ. GUMMFD. 2017;32(3).