It seems that there is not a clear consensus among industry professionals on how green certificates should be valued, even though, there seems to be a consensus that certified properties are potentially valued higher than non-certified properties. This study aims to find out whether the potential extra value of a green certificate could be measured with real option valuation (ROV). Data was gathered from industry professionals using a standard discounted cash flow valuation method constructed in a spreadsheet. ROV was applied in the data using Collan's pay-off method. The results show that an average real option value of 985,000 Euro (or 8.8% premium to the average property value) was found for the green certificate. The main finding is that by examining the certificate as a real option, the potential extra value of a green certificate could be added into min and max case scenarios, thus, making it not necessary to alter the normal cash-flow scenario that should be based on the comparable data available from the market which is scarcely available for certified buildings.
Vimpari, Jussi, and Seppo Junnila. "Real Options Approach for Valuing Green Certificates." In 20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. ERES: Conference. Vienna, Austria, 2013.