Stevie Chancellor
ABSTRACT
We are in a transitional economic period emphasizing automation of physical jobs and the shift towards intellectual labor. How can we measure and understand human behaviors of job search, and how communities are adapting to these changes? We use internet search data to estimate employment demand in the United States. Starting with 225 million raw job search queries in 2015 and 2016 from a popular search engine, we classify queries into one of 15 fields of employment with accuracy and F-1 of 97%, and use the resulting query volumes to estimate per-sector employment demand in U.S. counties. We validate against Bureau of Labor Statistics measures, and then demonstrate benefits for communities, showing significant differences in the types of jobs searched for across socio-economic dimensions like poverty and education level. We discuss implications for macroeconomic measurement, as well as how community leaders, policy makers, and the field of HCI can benefit.
- Ali Alkhatib, Michael S Bernstein, and Margaret Levi. 2017. Examining crowd work and gig work through the historical lens of piecework. In Proceedings of the 2017 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 4599--4616. Google Scholar
Digital Library
- Nikolaos Askitas and Klaus F Zimmermann. 2009. Google econometrics and unemployment forecasting. Applied Economics Quarterly 55, 2 (2009), 107--120.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Sitaram Asur and Bernardo A Huberman. 2010. Predicting the future with social media. In Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology (WI-IAT), 2010 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on, Vol. 1. IEEE, 492--499. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Scott R Baker and Andrey Fradkin. 2014. The Impact of Unemployment Insurance on Job Search: Evidence from Google Search Data. Review of Economics and Statistics (2014).Google Scholar
- Anita Balakrishnan. 2017. Self-driving cars could cost America's professional drivers up to 25,000 jobs a month, Goldman Sachs says. (May 2017). https://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/22/ goldman-sachs-analysis-of-autonomous-vehicle-job-loss. htmlGoogle Scholar
- Pierluigi Balduzzi, Edwin J Elton, and T Clifton Green. 2001. Economic news and bond prices: Evidence from the US Treasury market. Journal of financial and Quantitative analysis 36, 4 (2001), 523--543.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Benjamin B Bederson, Jonathan Lazar, Jeff Johnson, Harry Hochheiser, and Clare-Marie Karat. 2006. Workshop on SIGCHI public policy. In CHI'06 Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 1655--1657. Google ScholarDigital Library
- David M Blau and Philip K Robins. 1990. Job search outcomes for the employed and unemployed. Journal of Political Economy 98, 3 (1990), 637--655.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Joshua Evan Blumenstock. 2016. Fighting poverty with data. Science 353, 6301 (2016), 753--754.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Johan Bollen, Huina Mao, and Xiaojun Zeng. 2011. Twitter mood predicts the stock market. Journal of computational science 2, 1 (2011), 1--8.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Ilaria Bordino, Stefano Battiston, Guido Caldarelli, Matthieu Cristelli, Antti Ukkonen, and Ingmar Weber. 2012. Web search queries can predict stock market volumes. PloS one 7, 7 (2012), e40014.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Danah Boyd and Kate Crawford. 2012. Critical questions for big data: Provocations for a cultural, technological, and scholarly phenomenon. Information, communication & society 15, 5 (2012), 662--679.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Moira Burke and Robert Kraut. 2013. Using Facebook after losing a job: Differential benefits of strong and weak ties. In Proceedings of the 2013 conference on Computer supported cooperative work. ACM, 1419--1430. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Ronald S Burt. 2009. Structural holes: The social structure of competition. Harvard university press.Google Scholar
- Stevie Chancellor, Yannis Kalantidis, Jessica A Pater, Munmun De Choudhury, and David A Shamma. 2017. Multimodal Classification of Moderated Online Pro-Eating Disorder Content. In Proceedings of the 2017 CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 3213--3226. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Hyunyoung Choi and Hal Varian. 2012. Predicting the present with Google Trends. Economic Record 88, s1 (2012), 2--9.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Frank Cowell. 2011. Measuring inequality. Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
- Sean Culey. 2017. Revitalizing The Rust Belt. https://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2017/09/08/ revitalizing-the-rust-belt. (2017). {Online; accessed 18-September-2017}.Google Scholar
- Aron Culotta. 2014. Estimating county health statistics with twitter. In Proceedings of the 32nd annual ACM conference on Human factors in computing systems. ACM, 1335--1344. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Francesco D'Amuri and Juri Marcucci. 2010. Google it!' Forecasting the US unemployment rate with a Google job search index. (2010).Google Scholar
- Munmun De Choudhury, Meredith Ringel Morris, and Ryen W White. 2014. Seeking and sharing health information online: Comparing search engines and social media. In Proceedings of the 32nd annual ACM conference on Human factors in computing systems. ACM, 1365--1376. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Drew Desilver. 2017. Most Americans unaware that as U.S. manufacturing jobs have disappeared, output has grown. (July 2017). http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/07/25/ most-americans-unaware-that-as-u-s-manufacturing-jobs\ -have-disappeared-output-has-grown/Google Scholar
- Tawanna R Dillahunt, Nishan Bose, Suleman Diwan, and Asha Chen-Phang. 2016. Designing for disadvantaged job seekers: Insights from early investigations. In Proceedings of the 2016 ACM Conference on Designing Interactive Systems. ACM, 905--910. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Tawanna R Dillahunt and Amelia R Malone. 2015. The promise of the sharing economy among disadvantaged communities. In Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 2285--2294. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Carl DiSalvo, Phoebe Sengers, and Hrönn Brynjarsdóttir. 2010. Mapping the landscape of sustainable HCI. In Proceedings of the SIGCHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 1975--1984. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Susan Dumais, Robin Jeffries, Daniel M Russell, Diane Tang, and Jaime Teevan. 2014. Understanding user behavior through log data and analysis. In Ways of Knowing in HCI. Springer, 349--372.Google Scholar
- Nicole B Ellison, Charles Steinfield, and Cliff Lampe. 2007. The benefits of Facebook "friends:" Social capital and college students' use of online social network sites. Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication 12, 4 (2007), 1143--1168.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Michael Ettredge, John Gerdes, and Gilbert Karuga. 2005. Using web-based search data to predict macroeconomic statistics. Commun. ACM 48, 11 (2005), 87--92. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Jane E Ferrie, Martin J Shipley, Michael Gideon Marmot, Stephen Stansfeld, and George Davey Smith. 1995. Health effects of anticipation of job change and non-employment: longitudinal data from the Whitehall II study. Bmj 311, 7015 (1995), 1264--1269.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Adam Fourney, Ryen W White, and Eric Horvitz. 2015. Exploring time-dependent concerns about pregnancy and childbirth from search logs. In Proceedings of the 33rd Annual ACM Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 737--746. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Laura K Gee, Jason Jones, and Moira Burke. 2017. Social Networks and labor markets: How strong ties relate to job finding on Facebook's social network. Journal of Labor Economics 35, 2 (2017), 485--518.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Eric Gilbert and Karrie Karahalios. 2010. Widespread Worry and the Stock Market. In ICWSM. 59--65.Google Scholar
- Jeremy Ginsberg, Matthew H Mohebbi, Rajan S Patel, Lynnette Brammer, Mark S Smolinski, and Larry Brilliant. 2009. Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data. Nature 457, 7232 (2009), 1012--1014.Google Scholar
- Glassdoor. 2017. Statistical Reference for Recruiters: 50 HR and Recruiting Statistics for 2017. (2017). http://resources.glassdoor.com/rs/899-LOT-464/images/ 50hr-recruiting-and-statistics-2017.pdfGoogle Scholar
- Sharad Goel, Jake M Hofman, Sébastien Lahaie, David M Pennock, and Duncan J Watts. 2010. Predicting consumer behavior with Web search. Proceedings of the National academy of sciences 107, 41 (2010), 17486--17490.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Erving Goffman. 1978. The presentation of self in everyday life. Harmondsworth.Google Scholar
- Mark Granovetter. 1995. Getting a job: A study of contacts and careers. University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
- Mark S Granovetter. 1973. The strength of weak ties. American journal of sociology 78, 6 (1973), 1360--1380.Google Scholar
- Anne E Green, Yuxin Li, David Owen, and Maria De Hoyos. 2012. Inequalities in use of the Internet for job search: similarities and contrasts by economic status in Great Britain. Environment and Planning 44, 10 (2012), 2344--2358.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Rodger W Griffeth, Peter W Hom, and Stefan Gaertner. 2000. A meta-analysis of antecedents and correlates of employee turnover: Update, moderator tests, and research implications for the next millennium. Journal of management 26, 3 (2000), 463--488.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Jamie Guillory and Jeffrey T Hancock. 2012. The effect of Linkedin on deception in resumes. Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 15, 3 (2012), 135--140.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Eszter Hargittai and Eden Litt. 2013. New strategies for employment? internet skills and online privacy practices during people's job search. IEEE security & privacy 11, 3 (2013), 38--45. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Ahmed Hassan Awadallah, Ryen W White, Patrick Pantel, Susan T Dumais, and Yi-Min Wang. 2014. Supporting complex search tasks. In Proceedings of the 23rd ACM International Conference on Conference on Information and Knowledge Management. ACM, 829--838. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Edwin AJ Van Hooft, Marise Ph Born, Toon W Taris, Henk Van Der Flier, and Roland WB Blonk. 2004. Predictors of job search behavior among employed and unemployed people. Personnel Psychology 57, 1 (2004), 25--59.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Benjamin Jen, Jashanjit Kaur, Jonathan De Heus, and Tawanna R Dillahunt. 2014. Analyzing employment technologies for economically distressed individuals. In Proceedings of the extended abstracts of the 32nd annual ACM conference on Human factors in computing systems. ACM, 1945--1950. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Michael Kan. 2017. Laid-off IT workers worry US is losing tech jobs to outsourcing. (Mar 2017). https: //www.pcworld.com/article/3175682/techology-business/ laid-off-it-workers-worry-us-is-losing-tech-jobs-to-\ outsourcing.htmlGoogle Scholar
- Brian C Keegan, Patricia Cavazos-Rehg, Anh Ngoc Nguyen, Saiph Savage, Jofish Kaye, Munmun De Choudhury, and Michael J Paul. 2017. CHI-nnabis: Implications of Marijuana Legalization for and from Human-Computer Interaction. In Proceedings of the 2017 CHI Conference Extended Abstracts on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 1312--1317. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Jaewoo Kim, Meeyoung Cha, and Jong Gun Lee. 2017. Nowcasting commodity prices using social media. PeerJ Computer Science 3 (2017), e126.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Kory Kroft and Devin G Pope. 2014. Does online search crowd out traditional search and improve matching efficiency? Evidence from Craigslist. Journal of Labor Economics 32, 2 (2014), 259--303.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Peter Kuhn and Hani Mansour. 2014. Is Internet job search still ineffective? The Economic Journal 124, 581 (2014), 1213--1233.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Jonathan Lazar. 2015. Public policy and HCI: making an impact in the future. interactions 22, 5 (2015), 69--71. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Jonathan Lazar, Julio Abascal, Simone Barbosa, Jeremy Barksdale, Batya Friedman, Jens Grossklags, Jan Gulliksen, Jeff Johnson, Tom McEwan, Loïc Martínez-Normand, and others. 2016. Human--computer interaction and international public policymaking: a framework for understanding and taking future actions. Foundations and Trends® in Human--Computer Interaction 9, 2 (2016), 69--149. Google ScholarDigital Library
- David Lazer, Ryan Kennedy, Gary King, and Alessandro Vespignani. 2014. The parable of Google Flu: traps in big data analysis. Science 343, 6176 (2014), 1203--1205.Google Scholar
- David Lazer, Alex Sandy Pentland, Lada Adamic, Sinan Aral, Albert Laszlo Barabasi, Devon Brewer, Nicholas Christakis, Noshir Contractor, James Fowler, Myron Gutmann, and others. 2009. Life in the network: the coming age of computational social science. Science (New York, NY) 323, 5915 (2009), 721.Google Scholar
- Colin Lindsay, Malcolm Greig, and Ronald W McQuaid. 2005. Alternative Job Search Strategies in Remote Rural and Peri-urban Labour Markets: The Role of Social Networks. Sociologia Ruralis 45, 1--2 (2005), 53--70.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Michael Luo. 2009. Job retraining may fall short of high hopes. The New York Times (2009).Google Scholar
- Emil E Malizia and Shanzi Ke. 1993. The influence of economic diversity on unemployment and stability. Journal of Regional Science 33, 2 (1993), 221--235.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Huina Mao, Scott Counts, and Johan Bollen. 2011. Predicting financial markets: Comparing survey, news, twitter and search engine data. arXiv preprint arXiv:1112.1051 (2011).Google Scholar
- Huina Mao, Scott Counts, and Johan Bollen. 2015. Quantifying the effects of online bullishness on international financial markets. Technical Report. ECB Statistics Paper.Google Scholar
- Ralph Matthews, Ravi Pendakur, and Nathan Young. 2009. Social capital, labour markets, and job-finding in urban and rural regions: Comparing paths to employment in prosperous cities and stressed rural communities in Canada. The Sociological Review 57, 2 (2009), 306--330.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Ruth G McFadyen and Jonathan P Thomas. 1997. Economic and psychological models of job search behavior of the unemployed. Human Relations 50, 12 (1997), 1461--1484.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Tomas Mikolov, Ilya Sutskever, Kai Chen, Greg S Corrado, and Jeff Dean. 2013. Distributed representations of words and phrases and their compositionality. In Advances in neural information processing systems. 3111--3119. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Meredith Ringel Morris, Jaime Teevan, and Katrina Panovich. 2010. A Comparison of Information Seeking Using Search Engines and Social Networks. In ICWSM.Google Scholar
- Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2010. Table B-1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry sector and selected industry detail. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t17.htm. (2010). {Online; accessed 17-September-2017}.Google Scholar
- Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2017. Labor Force Statistics from the Current Population Survey. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000. (2017). {Online; accessed 14-December-2017}.Google Scholar
- Michael J Paul, Ryen W White, and Eric Horvitz. 2015. Diagnoses, decisions, and outcomes: Web search as decision support for cancer. In Proceedings of the 24th International Conference on World Wide Web. ACM, 831--841. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Michael J Paul, Ryen W White, and Eric Horvitz. 2016. Search and breast cancer: On episodic shifts of attention over life histories of an illness. ACM Transactions on the Web (TWEB) 10, 2 (2016), 13. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Jaroslav Pavlicek and Ladislav Kristoufek. 2015. Nowcasting unemployment rates with google searches: Evidence from the visegrad group countries. PloS one 10, 5 (2015), e0127084.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Tobias Preis, Helen Susannah Moat, and H Eugene Stanley. 2013. Quantifying trading behavior in financial markets using Google Trends. Scientific reports 3 (2013), srep01684.Google Scholar
- Tobias Preis, Daniel Reith, and H Eugene Stanley. 2010. Complex dynamics of our economic life on different scales: insights from search engine query data. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 368, 1933 (2010), 5707--5719.Google Scholar
- Aaron Smith. 2015. Searching for work in the digital era. Pew Research Center: Internet, Science & Tech., Article published on 19 (2015).Google Scholar
- Marina Sokolova and Guy Lapalme. 2009. A systematic analysis of performance measures for classification tasks. Information Processing & Management 45, 4 (2009), 427--437. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Linnet Taylor, Ralph Schroeder, and Eric Meyer. 2014. Emerging practices and perspectives on Big Data analysis in economics: Bigger and better or more of the same? Big Data & Society 1, 2 (2014), 2053951714536877.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Nathan Tefft. 2011. Insights on unemployment, unemployment insurance, and mental health. Journal of Health Economics 30, 2 (2011), 258--264.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Jacob Thebault-Spieker, Loren Terveen, and Brent Hecht. 2017. Toward a Geographic Understanding of the Sharing Economy: Systemic Biases in UberX and TaskRabbit. ACM Transactions on Computer-Human Interaction (TOCHI) 24, 3 (2017), 21. Google ScholarDigital Library
- Sonja Utz. 2016. Is LinkedIn making you more successful? The informational benefits derived from public social media. new media & society 18, 11 (2016), 2685--2702.Google Scholar
- Hal R Varian. 2014. Big data: New tricks for econometrics. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 28, 2 (2014), 3--27.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Tara Vishwanath. 1989. Job search, stigma effect, and escape rate from unemployment. Journal of Labor Economics 7, 4 (1989), 487--502.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Connie R Wanberg. 2012. The individual experience of unemployment. Annual review of psychology 63 (2012), 369--396.Google Scholar
- Connie R Wanberg, Ruth Kanfer, and Joseph T Banas. 2000. Predictors and outcomes of networking intensity among unemployed job seekers. Journal of Applied Psychology 85, 4 (2000), 491.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Ryen W White and Resa A Roth. 2009. Exploratory search: Beyond the query-response paradigm. Synthesis lectures on information concepts, retrieval, and services 1, 1 (2009), 1--98.Google ScholarCross Ref
- Hans De Witte. 1999. Job insecurity and psychological well-being: Review of the literature and exploration of some unresolved issues. European Journal of work and Organizational psychology 8, 2 (1999), 155--177.Google Scholar
- Diyi Yang, Zheng Yao, and Robert E Kraut. 2017. Self-Disclosure and Channel Difference in Online Health Support Groups.. In ICWSM. 704--707.Google Scholar
Index Terms
- Measuring Employment Demand Using Internet Search Data
Recommendations
Understanding Executive Job Search
We apply the exploitation/exploration dichotomy faced by organizations in business strategy to the decisions of individual executives as to whether to continue in their current organization and exploit career opportunities there or explore new ones ...
Effects of China's Outward FDI on Domestic Employment
DCABES '11: Proceedings of the 2011 10th International Symposium on Distributed Computing and Applications to Business, Engineering and ScienceWith the improvement of international competitiveness of Chinese economy and the implementation of going global strategy, China's outward FDI has developed quickly. This paper explores the effects of China's outward FDI on domestic employment by ...
EMA-an Intelligent Employment Agent
IIS '97: Proceedings of the 1997 IASTED International Conference on Intelligent Information Systems (IIS '97)The author presents an Intelligent Employment Agent, EMA, available through the Internet. EMA provides national employment information about career opportunities, fresh graduates, scholarships, employment boards, unemployed workers, and performs ...
Comments