A class of probabilistic models for cascading failure propagation in interconnected systems is proposed. The models are able to represent important physical characteristics of realistic load-redistribution mechanisms, e.g., that the load increments after a failure depend on the load of the failing element and that they may be distributed nonuniformly among the remaining elements. In the limit of large system sizes, the models are solved analytically in terms of generalized branching processes, and the failure propagation properties of a prototype example are analyzed in detail.

• Received 16 November 2009

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.81.031129