Prediction of an imminent catastrophic event in a driven disordered system is of paramount importance—from the laboratory scale controlled fracture experiment to the largest scale of mechanical failure, i.e., earthquakes. It has long been conjectured that the statistical regularities in the energy emission time series mirror the “health” of such driven systems and hence have the potential for forecasting imminent catastrophe. Among other statistical regularities, a measure of how unequal avalanche sizes are is potentially a crucial indicator of imminent failure. The inequalities of avalanche sizes are quantified using inequality indices traditionally used in socioeconomic systems: the Gini index $g$, the Hirsch index $h$, and the Kolkata index $k$. It is shown analytically (for the mean-field case) and numerically (for the non-mean-field case) with models of quasi-brittle materials that the indices show universal behavior near the breaking points in such models and hence could serve as indicators of imminent breakdown of stressed disordered systems.

• Received 21 March 2023
• Accepted 13 June 2023

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.108.014103