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Epistemic superimposition: the war in Ukraine and the poverty of expertise in international relations theory

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Abstract

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and again after the invasion of 2022, much analysis of the conflict has been rooted in extant theories of international relations and state behaviour. Numerous explanations of the causes of Russia’s invasion, predictions about the conflict, and prescriptions for state action have been offered by scholars with expertise in international relations theory but little familiarity with the region, its politics, or its history. In this article, we critique this trend, focusing primarily on the work of international relations scholars of the realist school and specifically the writing of John Mearsheimer. We propose the concept of “epistemic superimposition” to describe the methodological error of overlaying abstract theories onto unique historical and political contexts, which can lead to poor engagement with empirical evidence or to ignoring empirical evidence altogether. To bear out this idea, we show both how realist theory fails the empirical test in Ukraine and situate this failure within the broader scholarly context of expertise in international relations theory. We conclude with a call for more careful application of theory by theorists but also for privileging area studies and deeper qualitative research of local political contexts in analyzing contemporary global events.

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Change history

  • 13 November 2023

    In the reference “Waltz, Kenneth N. (1996) `International politics is not foreign policy', Security Studies 6(1): 54 -7” the author's family name Waltz was incorrectly written as Wltz.

Notes

  1. Alexander Lanoszka (2023) argues that the logic of Mearsheimer’s offensive realism suggests that Russia would become an aggressive power in CEE regardless of NATO enlargement; this would imply that Mearsheimer does not actually apply offensive realism to his own analysis of Russia’s behavior. We proceed, however, on the understanding that Mearsheimer, whatever blind spots others might see in his analysis, bases his analysis in offensive realism, as he himself claims is the case (see: Mearsheimer 2018: 131–3).

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Maria Popova, Alexander Lanoszka, Steven Seegel, and Elizabeth Dunn, as well as the editors and two anonymous reviewers, for their invaluable feedback on earlier drafts of this article.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. School of Social Science and Cultural Studies, Pratt Institute, Brooklyn, NY, USA

    Jan Dutkiewicz

  2. American Studies Center, University of Warsaw, Warsaw, Poland

    Jan Smolenski

  3. Department of Politics, New School for Social Research, New York, NY, USA

    Jan Smolenski

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  1. Jan Dutkiewicz
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Correspondence to Jan Dutkiewicz.

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Dutkiewicz, J., Smolenski, J. Epistemic superimposition: the war in Ukraine and the poverty of expertise in international relations theory. J Int Relat Dev 26, 619–631 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1057/s41268-023-00314-1

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