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Cropland displacement contributed 60% of the increase in carbon emissions of grain transport in China over 1990–2015

Nature Food volume 4, pages 223–235 (2023)Cite this article

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Abstract

Rapid urbanization and population growth have increased the need for grain transportation in China, as more grain is being consumed and croplands have been moved away from cities. Increased grain transportation has, in turn, led to higher energy consumption and carbon emissions. Here we undertook a model-based approach to estimate the carbon emissions associated with grain transportation in the country between 1990 and 2015. We found that emissions more than tripled, from 5.68 million tons of CO2 emission equivalent in 1990 to 17.69 million tons in 2015. Grain production displacement contributed more than 60% of the increase in carbon emissions associated with grain transport over the study period, whereas changes in grain consumption and population growth contributed 31.7% and 16.6%, respectively. Infrastructure development, such as newly built highways and railways in western China, helped offset 0.54 million tons of CO2 emission equivalent from grain transport. These findings shed light on the life cycle environmental impact within food supply chains.

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Fig. 1: Change of grain production and consumption in China (1990–2015).
Fig. 2: Inter-provincial flow of grain transport in China (1990 and 2015).
Fig. 3: Inter-provincial flow of grain by transport mode in 1990 and 2015.
Fig. 4: Change in carbon emissions (million tons CO2e) of grain transportation.
Fig. 5: Driving factors of increased carbon emission.
Fig. 6: Transport-related carbon intensity (kgCO2e per ton) at the prefecture level (2015).

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Data availability

All the data used in this study are publicly available; for descriptions of the source data, see Methods and Supplementary Information. Source data are provided with this paper.

Code availability

The custom code and algorithm used for this study are available in Methods and Supplementary Information.

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Acknowledgements

This work was supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (no.2662020GGPY002) and the Later Stage Program of Philosophy and Social Science Research by Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China (no. 21JHQ019) (C.Z.), and the Key Program of Philosophy and Social Science Research by Ministry of Education of the People’s Republic of China (no. 20JZD015) (X.K.). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish or preparation of the manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Public Administration, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China

    Chengchao Zuo, Xinli Ke & Lanping Tang

  2. School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK

    Cheng Wen, Graham Clarke & Andy Turner

  3. Research Institute of Environmental Law, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

    Cheng Wen

  4. Macro Agriculture Research Institute, College of Economics and Management, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China

    Liangzhi You

  5. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D.C., USA

    Liangzhi You

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Contributions

C.Z. and X.K. conceptualized and designed the study. C.Z. and L.T. collected the original data. C.Z. developed the model framework and compiled the figures. C.Z. and C.W. interpreted the data and analysed the results. C.Z. drafted the manuscript, and C.W., G.C., L.Y. and A.T. reviewed the manuscript and contributed to the revisions.

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Correspondence to Chengchao Zuo or Xinli Ke.

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Nature Food thanks Chenyang Shuai, Qiangyi Yu and Bohan Yang for their contribution to the peer review of this work.

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Extended data

Extended Data Fig. 1

Changes of Mean Centres of Cropland and Population at National Level, Chinese mainland, 1990–2015.

Extended Data Fig. 2 Grain Supply and Consumption 1990–2015.

a) Grain supply by origin 1990–2015; b) Grain consumption by use 1990–2015.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 3 Spatial Distribution of Grain Production and Consumption in 1990 and 2015.

a) Change of population by county 1990–2015; b) Change of cropland area by county 1990–2015; Grain output of each prefecture in c) 1990 and d) in 2015; Grain consumption by prefecture in e) 1990 and f) in 2015.

Source data

Extended Data Fig. 4

Modelling Framework for Estimating Carbon Emission of Grain Transport.

Extended Data Fig. 5

Illustration of Modal Choice and Transport Cost Model for Grain Transport.

Extended Data Fig. 6

Transport flows of grain in China at the provincial level, 1990–2015.

Source data

Extended Data Table 1 Key metrics and data sources for the study
Full size table
Extended Data Table 2 Provincial average carbon footprints of grain transport for consumption and production
Full size table
Extended Data Table 3 GHG Conversion Factors by transport mode
Full size table

Supplementary information

Supplementary Information

Model calibrating, sensitivity analysis, Supplementary Figs. 1–3 and Table 1.

Reporting Summary

Source data

Source Data Fig. 1

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 2

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 3

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 4

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 5

Statistical source data.

Source Data Fig. 6

Statistical source data.

Source Data Extended Data Fig. 2

Statistical source data.

Source Data Extended Data Fig./Table 3

Statistical source data.

Source Data Extended Data Fig./Table 6

Statistical source data.

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Zuo, C., Wen, C., Clarke, G. et al. Cropland displacement contributed 60% of the increase in carbon emissions of grain transport in China over 1990–2015. Nat Food 4, 223–235 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-023-00708-x

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