Skip to main content

Thank you for visiting nature.com. You are using a browser version with limited support for CSS. To obtain the best experience, we recommend you use a more up to date browser (or turn off compatibility mode in Internet Explorer). In the meantime, to ensure continued support, we are displaying the site without styles and JavaScript.

  • Brief Communications Arising
  • Published:

Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates

Nature volume 511, pages E3–E5 (2014)Cite this article

Subjects

Abstract

Arising from C. Mora et al. Nature 502, 183–187 (2013)

The question of when the signal of climate change will emerge from the background noise of climate variability—the ‘time of emergence’—is potentially important for adaptation planning. Mora et al.1 presented precise projections of the time of emergence of unprecedented regional climates. However, their methodology produces artificially early dates at which specific regions will permanently experience unprecedented climates and artificially low uncertainty in those dates everywhere. This overconfidence could impair the effectiveness of climate risk management decisions2. There is a Reply to this Brief Communication Arising by Mora, C. et al. Nature 511, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature13524 (2014).

This is a preview of subscription content, access via your institution

Access options

Buy this article

  • Purchase on Springer Link
  • Instant access to full article PDF
Buy now

Prices may be subject to local taxes which are calculated during checkout

Figure 1: The year of unprecedented emergence for surface air temperature using RCP4.5.

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  1. Mora, C. et al. The projected timing of climate departure from recent variability. Nature 502, 183–187 (2013)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  2. Lempert, R., Nakicenovic, N., Sarewitz, D. & Schlesinger, M. Characterizing climate-change uncertainties for decision-makers. Clim. Change 65, 1–9 (2004)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Mahlstein, I., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Portmann, R. W. Early onset of significant local warming in low latitude countries. Environ. Res. Lett. 6, 034009 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  4. Hawkins, E. & Sutton, R. Time of emergence of climate signals. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L01702 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  5. Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Phillips, A. S. Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate. Nature Clim. Change 2 775–779 (2012) erratum 2, 888 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  6. Diffenbaugh, N. S. & Scherer, M. Observational and model evidence of global emergence of permanent, unprecedented heat in the 20th and 21st centuries. Clim. Change 107, 615–624 (2011)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Knutti, R., Furrer, R., Tebaldi, C., Cermak, J. & Meehl, G. A. Challenges in combining projections from multiple climate models. J. Clim. 23, 2739–2758 (2010)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  8. Nagele, P. Misuse of standard error of the mean (SEM) when reporting variability of a sample. A critical evaluation of four anaesthesia journals. Br. J. Anaesth. 90, 514–516 (2003)

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  9. Stocker, T. F. et al. (eds) Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013)

  10. Ho, C. K., Hawkins, E., Shaffrey, L. & Underwood, F. M. Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions. Clim. Dyn. 41, 917–935 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  11. Anderson, B. T. Near-term increase in frequency of seasonal temperature extremes prior to the 2oC global warming target. Clim. Change 108, 581–589 (2011)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  12. Mahlstein, I., Hegerl, G. & Solomon, S. Emerging local warming signals in observational data. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L21711 (2012)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  13. Hegerl, G. C. et al. Detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method. J. Clim. 9, 2281–2306 (1996)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  14. Syktus, J. et al. Latitudinal dependence of signal-to-noise patterns from two general circulation models with CO2 forcing. Clim. Dyn. 13, 293–302 (1997)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  15. Diffenbaugh, N. S. & Giorgi, F. Climate change hotspots in the CMIP5 global climate model ensemble. Clim. Change 114, 813–822 (2012)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  16. Mahlstein, I., Daniel, J. S. & Solomon, S. Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature. Nature Clim. Change 3, 739–743 (2013)

    Article  ADS  Google Scholar 

  17. Battisti, D. S. & Naylor, R. L. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat. Science 323, 240–244 (2009)

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  18. Beaumont, L. J. et al. Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108, 2306–2311 (2011)

    Article  ADS  CAS  Google Scholar 

  19. Keller, K. M., Joos, F. & Raible, C. C. Time of emergence of trends in ocean biogeochemistry. Biogeosci. Discuss. 10, 18065–18092 (2013)

    ADS  Google Scholar 

  20. Jeffrey, S. et al. Australia's CMIP5 submission using the CSIRO-Mk3.6 model. Austr. Meteorol. Oceanogr. J. 63, 1–13 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6BB, UK,

    Ed Hawkins & Rowan Sutton

  2. Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 02215, Massachusetts, USA

    Bruce Anderson

  3. School of Earth Sciences and Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, California 94305, USA

    Noah Diffenbaugh

  4. Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, MeteoSwiss, Zurich CH-8058, Switzerland,

    Irina Mahlstein

  5. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB. UK,

    Richard Betts & Doug McNeall

  6. Department of Geography, Exeter University, Exeter EX4 4RJ. UK,

    Richard Betts

  7. School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3JW, UK,

    Gabi Hegerl

  8. Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK,

    Manoj Joshi

  9. Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland,

    Reto Knutti

  10. Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, 02139-4307, Massachusetts, USA

    Susan Solomon

  11. Department of Science, Information Technology, Innovation and the Arts, and University of Queensland, Brisbane, 4001, Queensland, Australia

    Jozef Syktus

  12. Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, 08540, New Jersey, USA

    Gabriel Vecchi

Authors
  1. Ed Hawkins
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Bruce Anderson
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Noah Diffenbaugh
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Irina Mahlstein
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  5. Richard Betts
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  6. Gabi Hegerl
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  7. Manoj Joshi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  8. Reto Knutti
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  9. Doug McNeall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  10. Susan Solomon
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  11. Rowan Sutton
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  12. Jozef Syktus
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  13. Gabriel Vecchi
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Contributions

E.H. led the analysis and writing of the manuscript. B.A., N.D. and I.M. performed additional analyses, discussed the results and contributed text. All other authors contributed text.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ed Hawkins.

Ethics declarations

Competing interests

Competing Financial Interests Declared none.

PowerPoint slides

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hawkins, E., Anderson, B., Diffenbaugh, N. et al. Uncertainties in the timing of unprecedented climates. Nature 511, E3–E5 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13523

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13523

This article is cited by

Comments

By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.

Search

Advanced search

Quick links

Nature Briefing

Sign up for the Nature Briefing newsletter — what matters in science, free to your inbox daily.

Get the most important science stories of the day, free in your inbox. Sign up for Nature Briefing