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Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults

Nature volume 434, pages 457–461 (2005)Cite this article

An Erratum to this article was published on 26 May 2005

Abstract

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominately aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.

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Figure 1: Map of the Quebrada (Q), Discovery (D), and Gofar (G) transform faults in the equatorial eastern Pacific, contoured with the bathymetry predicted from the satellite-derived gravity field42.
Figure 2: Space-time distribution of seismicity around the nine mainshocks (Mw ≥ 5.4) on the Discovery and Gofar transform faults between May 1996 and December 2001, from the declustered Harvard CMT catalogue.
Figure 3: Aftershocks per mainshock, plotted against the difference between the mainshock magnitude mmain and the catalogue completeness threshold m0.
Figure 4: Foreshock and aftershock rates observed for EPR transform faults (solid symbols) and Southern California (open symbols) in regions of radius R about the mainshock.
Figure 5: Retrospective application of the naive prediction algorithm described in the text to the NOAA-PMEL catalogue (May 1996–November 2001) for the Discovery and Gofar faults.
Figure 6: Molchan's39 error diagram of the failure-to-predict probability 1 - P(F|M) against the probability of alerts P(F) on a logarithmic scale, contoured with probability gain g (solid curves).

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Acknowledgements

We thank R. Dziak for answering questions about details of the hydroacoustic earthquake catalogues, D. Bohnenstiehl for suggestions on clarifying the manuscript, A. Helmstetter for her help in understanding ETAS, and V. Keilis-Borok, I. Zaliapin, and L. Jones for discussions of earthquake prediction algorithms. J.J.McG. was supported by the Frank and Lisina Hoch Fund. M.S.B. was supported by the Deep Ocean Exploration Institute at WHOI. This work was supported by the NSF, SCEC and USGS.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geology and Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution,

    Jeffrey J. McGuire

  2. MIT-Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Joint Program, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, 02543-1541, USA

    Margaret S. Boettcher

  3. Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, 90089-7042, USA

    Thomas H. Jordan

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  1. Jeffrey J. McGuire
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Correspondence to Jeffrey J. McGuire.

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This file contains the Supplementary Discussion, Supplementary Tables S1-S4 and Supplementary Figures S1-S4. (PDF 186 kb)

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McGuire, J., Boettcher, M. & Jordan, T. Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults. Nature 434, 457–461 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1038/nature03377

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