Abstract
If the host population is taken to be a dynamic variable (rather than constant, as conventionally assumed), a wider understanding of the population biology of infectious diseases emerges. In this first part of a two-part article, mathematical models are developed, shown to fit data from laboratory experiments, and used to explore the evolutionary relations among transmission parameters. In the second part of the article, to be published in next week's issue, the models are extended to include indirectly transmitted infections, and the general implications for infectious diseases are considered.
Similar content being viewed by others
Article PDF
References
Park, T. Ecol. Monogr. 18, 267–307 (1948).
Lanciani, C. A. Ecology 56, 689–695 (1975).
Davis, J. W. & Anderson, R. C. (eds) Parasitic Diseases of Wild Mammals (Iowa State University Press, 1971).
Naumov, N. P. The Ecology of Animals, Ch. 17 (University of Illinois Press, Chicago, 1972).
Davis, J. W., Anderson, R. C., Karstad, L. & Trainer, D. O. (eds) Infectious and Parasitic Diseases of Wild Birds (Iowa State University Press, 1971).
Jennings, A. R. J. comp. Path. 64, 356–359 (1954).
Jennings, A. R. Bird Study 8, 25–31 (1961).
Forrester, D. J. in Parasitic Diseases of Wild Mammals (eds Davis, J. W. & Anderson, R. C.) 158–173 (Iowa State University Press, 1971).
Uhazy, L. S., Holmes, J. C. & Stelfax, J. G. Can. J. Zool. 51, 817–824 (1973).
Pearsall, W. H. New Biol. 17, 9–26 (1954).
Hilborn, R. and Sinclair, A. R. E. in Serengeti: Dynamics of an Ecosystem (eds Sinclair, A. R. W. & Norton-Griffiths, M.) (University of Chicago Press, 1979).
Price, P. W. Evolutionary Biology of Parasites (Princeton University Press, 1979).
Anderson, R. M. in Population Dynamics (eds Anderson, R. M., Turner, B. D. & Taylor, L. R.) (Blackwell, Oxford, 1979).
Crofton, H. D. Parasitology 63, 179–193 (1971).
Crofton, H. D. Parasitology 63, 343–364 (1971).
Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. J. Anim. Ecol. 47, 219–247 (1978).
May, R. M. & Anderson, R. M. J. Anim. Ecol. 47, 249–267 (1978).
Barbehenn, K. R. Biotropica 1, 29–35 (1969).
Cornell, H. Am. Nat. 108, 880–883 (1974).
Carey, A. B. Ecol. Monogr. (in the press).
Bradley, D. J. in Origins of Pest, Parasite, Disease and Weed Problems (eds Cherrett, J. M. & Sagar, G. R.) (Blackwell, Oxford, 1977).
Latham, M. C. Science 188, 561–565 (1975).
McNeill, W. H. Plagues and People (Blackwell, Oxford, 1976).
Fenner, F. in The Impact of Civilization on the Biology of Man (ed. Boyden, S. W.) (University of Toronto Press, 1970).
Black, F. L. Science 187, 515–518 (1975).
Bailey, N. T. J. The Mathematical Theory of Infectious Diseases 2nd edn (Macmillan, New York, 1975).
Macdonald, G. The Epidemiology and Control of Malaria (Oxford University Press, 1957).
Macdonald, G. Dynamics of Tropical Disease (eds Bruce-Chwatt, L. J. & Glanville, V. J.) (Oxford University Press, 1973).
Bartlett, M. S. Stochastic Population Models in Ecology and Epidemiology (Methuen, Londan,1960).
Dietz, K. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 130, 505–528 (1967).
Waltman, P. Deterministic Threshold Models in the Theory of Epidemics (Lecture Notes in Biomathematics Vol. 1) (Springer, New York, 1974).
Yorke, J. A., Nathanson, N., Pianigiani, G. & Martin, J. Am. J. Epidem. 108, 103–123 (1979).
Hoppensteadt, F. C. Mathematical Theories of Populations: Demographics, Genetics, and Epidemics (SIAM, Philadelphia, 1976).
Dietz, K. in Epidemiology (eds Ludwig, D. & Cooke, K. L.) 104–121 (Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Philadelphia, 1975).
Anderson, R. M. Parasitology 76, 119–157 (1978).
May, R. M. & Anderson, R. M. Nature (next week's issue).
Mimms, C. A. The Pathogenesis of Infectious Diseases (Academic, London, 1977).
Kimberlin, R. H. (ed.) Slow Virus Diseases of Animals and Man (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1976).
Wabelin, D. J. Nature 273, 617–620 (1978).
Soulsby, E. J. L. (ed.) Immunity to Animal Parasites (Academic, London, 1972).
Fine, P. E. M. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 266, 173–194 (1975).
Stiven, A. E. Ecol. Monogr. 34, 119–142 (1964).
Hines, R. S. & Spira, D. T. J. Fish Biol. 5, 385–392 (1973).
Robinson, G. W., Nathanson, N. & Hodous, J. Am. J. Epidem. 94, 91–100 (1971).
Anderson, R. M., Whitfield, P. J. & Mills, C. A. J. Anim. Ecol. 46, 550–580 (1977).
Greenwood, M., Bradford-Hill, A., Topley, W. W. C. & Wilson, J. Experimental Epidemiology: Medical Research Council Special Report No. 209 (HMSO, London, 1936).
Greenwood, M. & Topley, W. W. C. J. Hyg. 26, 45–110 (1925).
Fenner, F. J. Immun. 63, 341–373 (1949).
Fenner, F. J. Hyg. 46, 383–393 (1948).
Kermack, W. O. & McKendrick, A. G. Proc. R. Soc. A 115, 700–721 (1927).
Anderson, R. M. Nature 279, 150–152 (1979).
Roitt, I. M. Essential Immunology (Blackwell, Oxford, 1976).
Fox, J. P., Elreback, L., Scott, W., Gatewood, L. & Ackerman, E. Am. J. Epidem. 94, 179–180 (1971).
Stuart-Harris, C. H. in Virus Virulence and Pathogenicity (CIBA Fdn Symp. 4) (Churchill Livingstone, London, 1960).
Deevey, E. S. Scient. Am. 203, 195–207 (1960).
Ehrlich, P. R., Ehrlich, A. H. & Holdren, J. P. Ecoscience: Population, Resources, Environment. Ch. 5 (Freeman, San Francisco, 1977).
Black, F. L. et al. Am. J. Epidem. 100, 230–250 (1974).
Black, F. L. Science 187, 515–518 (1975).
Matumota, M. Bact. Rev. 33, 404–418 (1969).
Nathanson, N., Yorke, J. H., Pianigiani, G. & Matin, J. in Persistent Viruses (eds Stevens, J., Todaro, G. J. & Fox, F. L.) (Academic, New York, 1978).
Tyrell, D. A. J. in Health and Disease in Tribal Societies (CIBA Fdn Symp. 49) (NorthHolland, Amsterdam, 1977).
Bartlett, M. S. J. R. Stat. Soc. A 120, 48–70 (1957).
Bartlett, M. S. J. R. Stat. Soc. A123, 37–44 (1960).
Black, F. L. J. theor. Biol. 11, 207–211 (1966).
London, W. P. & Yorke, J. A. Am. J. Epidem. 98, 453–468 (1973).
Yorke, J. A. & London, W. P. Am. J. Epidem. 98, 469–482 (1973).
Fenner, F. & White, D. O. Medical Virology (Academic, New York, 1970).
Fenner, F., McAuslan, B. R., Mimms, C. A., Sambrook, J. & White, D. O. The Biology of Animal Viruses (Academic, New York, 1974).
Christie, A. B. Infectious Diseases: Epidemiology and Clinical Practice (Churchill Livingstone, London, 1974).
Burnet, M. & White, D. O. Natural History of Infectious Disease (Cambridge University Press, 1972).
Health and Disease in Tribal Societies (CIBA Fdn Symp. 49) (North-Holland, Amsterdam, 1977).
Tanada, Y. in Biological Control of Insect Pests and Weeds (ed. DeBach, P.) (Chapman and Hall, London, 1964).
Bruce-Chwatt, L. J. & Bruce-Chwatt, J. M. Bull. N. Y. Acad. Med. 50, 1069–1080 (1974).
Smith, J. H., Dyck, J. R. & Connor, P. H. Am. J. trop. Med. Hyg. 25, 637–643 (1976).
Ford, J. (ed.) The Role of Trypanosomiasis in African Ecology: A Study of the Tsetse Fly Problem (Oxford University Press, 1971).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Anderson, R., May, R. Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I. Nature 280, 361–367 (1979). https://doi.org/10.1038/280361a0
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/280361a0
This article is cited by
-
Understanding the relationship between stay-at-home measures and vaccine shortages: a conventional, heterogeneous, and fractional dynamic approach
Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition (2024)
-
Spontaneous Infection and Periodic Evolving of Domain in a Diffusive SIS Epidemic Model
Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica, English Series (2024)
-
Infection-induced increases to population size during cycles in a discrete-time epidemic model
Journal of Mathematical Biology (2024)
-
Acute threshold dynamics of an epidemic system with quarantine strategy driven by correlated white noises and Lévy jumps associated with infinite measure
International Journal of Dynamics and Control (2023)
-
Effect of rearing density on the expression of fitness-related traits in male sand field crickets (Gryllus firmus)
Evolutionary Ecology (2023)
Comments
By submitting a comment you agree to abide by our Terms and Community Guidelines. If you find something abusive or that does not comply with our terms or guidelines please flag it as inappropriate.