Abstract
The current study was designed to assess the usefulness of a cusp catastrophe model in predicting adolescent alcohol use. The model suggests that dispositions should be viewed as a normal parameter in a cusp catastrophe model and situational pressure serves as a splitting parameter. This conceptualization predicts that as situational pressure increases a bimodal distribution in the underlying behavior should result. Statistical analyses revealed that the cusp model was a better predictor of alcohol use than the alternative linear models. These findings suggest that the modeling of situational pressure variables should be reexamined from within this new framework.
Similar content being viewed by others
REFERENCES
Asch, S.E. (1956). Studies of independence and conformity: A minority of one against a uanimous majority. Psychological Monographs, 70, 416.
Ayers, T.J. (1981). Catastrophe theory and brightness judgment. Perception and Psychophysics, 29, 407.
Bangert-Drowns, R.L. (1988). The effects of school-based substance use education—A meta-analysis. Journal of Drug Education, 18, 243–264.
Bem, D.J. (1972). Self-perception theory. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 6). New York: Academic Press.
Bigelow, J. (1982). A catastrophe model of organizational change. Behavioral Science, 27, 26–42.
Botvin, G.J. (1990). Substance abuse prevention: Theory, practice, and effectiveness. In M. Tonry & J.Q. Wilson (Eds.), Drugs and crime (pp. 461–519). Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Brehm, J.W. (1966). A theory of psychological reactance. New York: Academic Press.
Brehm, J.W. (1972). Responses to lost freedom: A theory of psychological reactance. Morristown, NJ: General Learning Press.
Callahan, J. (1982). A geometric model of anorexia and its treatment. Behavioral Science, 27, 140–154.
Chidley, J. (1976). Catastrophe theory in consumer attitude. Journal of Marketing Research Society, 18, 64–92.
Chidley, J., Lewis, P., & Walker, P. (1978). The cusp catastrophe as a market planning aid. Behavioral Science, 23, 351–354.
Cobb, L. (1981). Parameter estimation for the cusp catastrophe model. Behavioral Science, 26, 75–78.
Dielman, T.E., Kloska, D.D., Leech, S.L., Schulenberg, J.E., & Shope, J.T. (1992). Susceptibility to peer pressure as an explanatory variable for the differential effectiveness of an alcohol misuse prevention program in elementary schools. Journal of School Health, 62, 233–237.
Donaldson, S.I. (1995). Peer influence on adolescent drug use: A perspective from the trenches on experimental evaluation research. American Psychologist, 50, 801–802.
Donaldson, S.I., Graham, J.W., & Hansen, W.B. (1994). Testing the generalizability of intervening mechanism theories: Understanding the effects of adolescent drug use prevention interventions. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 17, 195–216.
Donaldson, S.I., Graham, J.W., Piccinin, A.M., & Hansen, W.B. (1995). Resistance-skills training and onset of alcohol use: Evidence for beneficial and potentially harmful effects in public schools and in private Catholic schools. Health Psychology, 14, 291–300.
Dryfoos, J.G. (1991). Adolescents at risk: Prevalence and prevention. New York: Oxford University Press.
Evans, R.I. (1983). Deterring smoking in adolescents: Evolution of a research program in applied social psychology. International Review of Applied Psychology, 32, 71–83.
Evans, R.I. (1984). A social inoculation strategy to deter smoking in adolescents. In J. D. Matarazzo, S. M. Weiss, J. A. Herd, N. E. Miller, & S. M. Weiss (Eds.), Behavioral health: A handbook of health enhancement and disease prevention (pp. 765–774). New York: Wiley.
Evans, R.I., Raines, B.E., & Hanselka, L. (1984). Developing data-based communications in social psychological research: Adolescent smoking prevention. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 14, 289–295.
Falco, M. (1992). The making of a drug-free America: Programs that work. New York: Random House.
Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Evanston, IL: Row, Peterson.
Fishbein, M. & Ajzen, I. (1974). Attitudes toward objects as predictors of single and multiple behavioral criteria. Psychological Review, 81, 59–74.
Fishbein, M. & Ajzen, I. (1975). Belief, attitude, intention, and behavior: An introduction to theory and research. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Flay, B.R. (1978). Catastrophe theory in social psychology: Some applications to attitudes and social behavior. Behavioral Science, 23, 335–350.
Fung, K.K. (1980). Benefits and costs of confidential information: An application of systems theory and catastrophe theory. Behavioral Science, 25, 192–204.
Graham, J.W., Johnson, C.A., Hansen, W.B., Flay, B.R., & Gee, M. (1990). Drug use prevention programs, gender, and ethnicity: Evaluation of three seventh-grade Project SMART cohorts. Preventive Medicine, 19, 305–313.
Guastello, S.J. (1981). Catastrophe modeling of equity in organizations. Behavioral Science, 26, 63–74.
Guastello, S.J. (1982a). Color matching and shift work: An industry application of the cusp-difference equation. Behavioral Science, 27, 131–139.
Guastello, S.J. (1982b). Moderator regression and the cusp catastrophe: Application of two-stage personnel selection, training, therapy, and policy evaluation. Behavioral Science, 27, 259–272.
Guastello, S.J. (1987). A butterfly catastrophe model of motivation in organizations: Academic performance. Journal of Applied Psychology, 72, 165–182.
Guastello, S.J. (1988). Catastrophe modeling of the accident process: Organizational subunit size. Psychological Bulletin, 103, 246–255.
Guastello, S.J. (1992). Clash of the paradigms: A critique of an examination of the polynomial regression technique for evaluating catastrophe theory hypotheses. Psychological Bulletin, 111, 375–379.
Guastello, S.J. (1993). Metaphors, Easter bunnies, and empirical verification of chaos theory applications in psychology. In F. Abraham (Chair), Chaos theory: Secret sect for mathematical mystics versus popular multidisciplinary metamodeling paradigm. Debate program presented to the American Psychological Society, Chicago, 28 June.
Hansen, W.B. (1992). School-based substance abuse prevention: A review of the state of the art in curriculum, 1980–1990. Health Education Research: Theory and Practice, 7, 403–430.
Hansen, W.B., & Graham, J.W. (1991). Preventing alcohol, marijuana and cigarette use among adolescents: One-year results of the Adolescent Alcohol Prevention Trial. Prevention Medicine, 20, 414–430.
Hawkins, J.D., Catalano, R.F., & Miller, J.M. (1992). Risk and protective factors for alcohol and other drug problems in adolescence and early adulthood: Implications for substance abuse prevention. Psychological Bulletin, 112, 64–105.
Harton, H.C. & Latané, B. (in press). Thought-and information-induced polarization: The mediating role of involvement in making attitudes extreme. Journal of Social Behavior and Personality.
Kiesler, C.A. (1971). The psychology of commitment: Experiments linking behavior to belief. New York: Academic Press.
Judd, C.M. & Kulik, J.A. (1980). Schematic effects of social attitudes on information processing and recall. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 38, 569–578.
Manis, M. (1960). The interpretation of opinion statements as a function of recipient attitude. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 60, 340–344.
McGuire, W.J. (1973). The yin and yang of progress in social psychology: Seven koan. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 26, 446–456.
Moskowitz, J.M. (1989). The primary prevention of alcohol problems: A critical review of the research literature. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 50, 54–88.
Nowak, A., Szamrej, J., & Latané, B. (1990). From private attitude to public opinion: A dynamic theory of Social Impact. Psychological Review, 97, 362–376.
Oliva, T.A., & Capdeville, C.M. (1977). Collective bargaining as a catastrophe model. Academy of Management Proceedings, 37, 117–181.
Oliva, T.A., Peters, M.H., & Murthy, H.S.K. (1981). A preliminary empirical test of a cusp catastrophe model in the social sciences. Behavioral Science, 26, 153–162.
Owens, W.A. (1968). Toward one discipline of scientific psychology. Psychological Bulletin, 59, 782–785.
Poston, T., & Stewart, I. (1978). Non-linear modeling of multistable perception. Behavioral Science, 23, 318–334.
Robins, L.N., & Przybeck, T.R. (1985). Age of onset of drug use as a factor in drug and other disorders. In C.L. Jones & R.J. Battjes (Eds.), Etiology of drug abuse: Implications for prevention (NIDA Research Monograph No. 56, DHHS Publication No. ADM 85–1335, pp. 178–192). Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Rundall, T.G., & Bruvold, W.H. (1988). A meta-analysis of school-based and alcohol use prevention programs. Health Education Quarterly, 15, 317–334.
Saari, D.G. (1977). A qualitative model for the dynamics of cognitive processes. Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 15, 145–168.
Scott, D.W. (1985). Catastrophe theory applications in clinical psychology: A review. Current Psychological Research and Reviews, Spring, 69–86.
Sheridan, J.E. (1980). Catastrophe model of employee turnover among hospital nursing staff. Academy of Management Proceedings, 40, 161–165.
Sheridan, J.E. (1985). Catastrophe model of employee withdrawal leading to low job performance, high absenteeism and turnover during the first year in an organization. Academy of Management Journal, 28, 88–109.
Sheridan, J.E., & Abelson, M.A. (1983). Cusp catastrophe model of employee turnover. Academy of Management Journal, 28, 88–109.
Sherif, M., & Hovland, C.I. (1961). Social Judgment. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
Shope, J.T., Dielman, T.E., Butchart, A.T., Campanelli, P.C., & Kloska, D.D. (1992). An elementary school-based alcohol misuse prevention program: A follow-up evaluation. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 53, 106–121.
Snyder, L.B. & Rouse, R.A. (1992). Targeting the audience for AIDS message by actual and perceived risk. AIDS Education and Prevention, 4, 143–159.
Stewart, I.N. & Peregoy, P.L. (1983). Catastrophe theory modeling in psychology. Psychological Bulletin, 94, 336–362.
Syvantek, D.J., Deshon, R.P., & Siler, M.T. (1991). The illusion of certainty: A catastrophe model of decision framing. Current Psychology: Research and Reviews, 10, 199–209.
Tesser, A. (1980). When individual dispositions and social pressure conflict: A catastrophe. Human Relations, 33, 393–407.
Tesser, A. & Achee, J. (1994). Aggression, love, conformity, and other social psychological catastrophes. In R. Vallacher & A. Nowak (Eds.) Dynamical Systems in Social Psychology, 95–109.
Thelen, E. (1992). Development as a dynamic system. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 1, 189–193.
Thom, R. (1975). Structural stability and morphogenesis. New York: Benjamin-Addison-Wesley.
Tobler, N.S. (1986). Meta-analysis of 143 adolescent drug prevention programs: Quantitative outcome results of program participants compared to a control or comparison group. Journal of Drug Issues, 16, 537–567.
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (1991). Healthy people 2000: National health promotion and disease prevention objectives (DHHS Publication No. PHS 91–50212). Washington DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
van der Maas, H.L.J., & Molenaar, P.C.M. (1992). Stagewise cognitive development: An application of Catastrophe Theory. Psychological Review, 99, 395–417.
Woodcock, A.E.R. (1978). Landscapes of change: Catastrophe theory and biological processes. Behavioral Science, 23, 390–401.
Yelen, D.R. (1980). A catastrophe model for the effects of a response set on a discrimination task. Perception and Psychophysics, 28, 177–178.
Zeeman, E.C. (1976). A mathematical model for conflicting judgments caused by stress applied to possible misestimation of speed caused by alcohol. British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology, 29, 19–32.
Zeeman, E.C. (1977). Catastrophe Theory: Selected papers 1972–1977. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Clair, S. A Cusp Catastrophe Model for Adolescent Alcohol Use: An Empirical Test. Nonlinear Dynamics Psychol Life Sci 2, 217–241 (1998). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022376002167
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1022376002167