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Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture

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Abstract

The determination of `critical thresholds' is an essential task for informed policy decisions on establishing greenhouse gas emission targets. This paper presents a framework for determining critical thresholds for New Zealand agriculture, focusing on three agricultural crops – kiwifruit, grain maize, and Paspalum dilatatum – as exemplars for the fruit production, arable cropping and dairy production industries in New Zealand. The approach is based on the application of a country-scale, integrated assessment model, called CLIMPACTS. The CLIMPACTS system contains a climate change scenario generator, climate and land data, and sectoral impact models. Importantly, CLIMPACTS allows time-dependent assessments of climate change and its effects, which facilitates the identification and examination of thresholds, which largely relate to spatial changes, over time, in regions of economic importance for these crops. However, whether such thresholds are `critical' for New Zealand cannot currently be addressed by the CLIMPACTS model. The determination of `criticality' requires a fully integrated assessment in which the social, economic, and environmental costs and risks associated with these thresholds are comprehensively evaluated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. International Global Change Institute, University of Waikato, Private Bag 3105, Hamilton, New Zealand

    G. J. Kenny, R. A. Warrick & G. C. Sims

  2. AgResearch, Grasslands Research Centre, Private Bag 11008, Palmerston North, New Zealand

    B. D. Campbell

  3. HortResearch, Mt. Albert Research Centre, Private Bag 92 169, Auckland, New Zealand

    M. Camilleri & H. G. McPherson

  4. Crop and Food Research, Private Bag 4704, Christchurch, New Zealand

    P. D. Jamieson

  5. School of Environmental and Marine Sciences, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92019, Auckland, New Zealand

    N. D. Mitchell

  6. NIWA, P.O. Box 109695, Newmarket, Auckland, New Zealand

    M. J. Salinger

Authors
  1. G. J. Kenny
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  2. R. A. Warrick
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  3. B. D. Campbell
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  4. G. C. Sims
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  5. M. Camilleri
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  6. P. D. Jamieson
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  7. N. D. Mitchell
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  8. H. G. McPherson
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  9. M. J. Salinger
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Kenny, G.J., Warrick, R.A., Campbell, B.D. et al. Investigating Climate Change Impacts and Thresholds: An Application of the CLIMPACTS Integrated Assessment Model for New Zealand Agriculture. Climatic Change 46, 91–113 (2000). https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005576910408

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