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The Iranian Economy After the Revolution: An Economic Appraisal of the Five-Year Plan

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 January 2009

Extract

In the 1980s, the Iranian economy assumed the burden of an eight-year war that resulted in considerable sacrifice and financial hardship for the Iranian people. Iran also bore the costs associated with the influx of a large number of refugees from neighboring countries. Its public sector was inefficient and its private sector reluctant; both suffered from uncertainty created by suddenly and rapidly changing economic policies. In such circumstances, implementation of the necessary macroeconomic and structural adjustments was a formidable task.

Type
Articles
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1992

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References

Notes

Author's note: I would like to thank S. Behdad, S. Rahnema, and the anonymous reviewers for helpful comments on an earlier version of the paper. I am, of course, solely responsible for the views expressed in this article.

1 See the Islamic Consultative Assembly, “The Bill for the First Economic–Social–Cultural Development Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran,” 1986. For a detailed discussion of the initial attempts at economic planning in the IRI, see Behdad, S., “The Political Economy of Islamic Planning in Iran,” in Post-Revolutionary Iran, ed. Amirahmadi, H. and Parvin, M. (Boulder, Colo.: Westview Press, 1988).Google Scholar

2 Plan and Budget Organization, The First Economic Social and Cultural Plan of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 1368–72 (Tehran: Islamic Republic of Iran, 01, 1990).Google Scholar

3 Ibid., 44.

4 Ibid., 43.

5 Ibid., 46.

7 Ibid., 47.

9 Ibid., 64.

10 Ibid., 66.

11 Bank Markazi Iran, Economic Reports and Bulletins, various issues.

12 This was the case throughout the 1980s, except 1981/82, 1983/84, and 1984/85, see n. II.

13 Bank Markazi Iran, “Post-Revolutionary Changes in the Economy” (Tehran: Bank Markazi, 1983/ 84) 163–69.

14 Ibid., 268–78.

15 See various issues of Bank Markazi Iran, economic reports.

17 Ibid.; see also, First… Plan, 61.Google Scholar

18 First… Plan, 33, 43.Google Scholar

19 During these two periods, private-sector investment at 1974 constant prices amounted to Rls 268.4 billion and RIs 254.1 billion, respectively.

20 In the same period, public-sector gross investment at 1974 constant prices fell from Rls 294.0 billion to Rls 231.7 billion.

21 For extensive discussions on the critical analysis of the uses and effects of the oil windfalls on the Iranian economy, see Amuzegar, J., “Oil Wealth: A Very Mixed Blessing,” Foreign Affairs 60: 814–34;CrossRefGoogle ScholarKatouzian, M. A., “Oil versus Agriculture: A Case of Dual Depletion in Iran,” Journal of Peasant Studies 2 (04 1978);Google ScholarPesaran, M. H., “Dependent Capitalism in Pre- and Post-Revolutionary Iran,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 14,4 (1982): 501–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar For detailed discussion of the experience of a number of oil exporting countries, see Alan, GeIb et al. , Oil Windfall Blessing or Curse?(Washington, D.C.: World Bank Research Publication, 1988).Google Scholar

22 First… Plan, 4245.Google Scholar

23 Bank Markazi Iran, “Post-Revolutionary Changes.”

24 Bank Markazi Iran, economic reports, various issues.

26 For detailed discussion see Ghasimi, M. R., “Macroeconomics” (Tehran: Central Bank of Iran,1986, unpublished study), 410–41.Google Scholar

27 Among a sample of oil producing developing countries, only Indonesia initiated a tax reform in1983 in response to the windfall from the second oil price rise, see Gelb, et al., Oil Windfall, 66.Google Scholar

28 Bank Markazi Iran, economic reports, various issues.

30 Bank Markazi Iran, “Post-Revolutionary Changes,” Table 3.

31 Bank Markazi Iran, economic reports, various issues.

33 Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, The Law for Usury—Free Banking(Tehran: 1983).Google Scholar

34 See Hassan, Shirvani, “Factors Responsible to Determine Money Supply in Iran” (Economic Research Department, Central Bank of Iran, 1986, unpublished study).Google Scholar

35 See Ghasimi, , “Macroeconomics,” 368–74.Google Scholar

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37 See Katouzian, , “Oil versus Agriculture,” 46.Google Scholar

38 Ibid., 47.

39 Ibid., 68, Table 9.

40 For detailed discussion, see Ghasimi, M. R., “Boasting Non-Oil Exports,” and “A Marketing Strategy for Exports,” Kayhan International (1975);Google ScholarGhasimi, M. R., “Exports of Manufactured Goods from Developing Countries by the Multinational Companies,” International Relations, Special issue on Multinational Companies (1977): 87110; idem, “Expansion of Exports of Manufactured Goods from Iran,” Mercantile Bank of Iran and Holland Magazine, 3, 4 (1979).Google Scholar

41 For discussions of arguments in favor and against a general devaluation, see Lautenschlager, W., “The Effects of an Overvalued Exchange Rate on the Iranian Economy 1979–1984,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 18 (1986): 3152;CrossRefGoogle ScholarBehdad, S., “Foreign Exchange Gap, Structural Constraints, and the Political Economy of Exchange Rate Determination in Iran,” International Journal of Middle East Studies 20 (1988): 121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

42 See First… Plan, 46.Google Scholar

43 Bank Markazi Iran, economic reports, 1985/86.

44 Bank Markazi Iran, economic reports, various issues.