Elsevier

Technology in Society

Volume 30, Issues 3–4, August–November 2008, Pages 211-233
Technology in Society

Paths to the future for science and technology in China, India and the United States

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techsoc.2008.04.006Get rights and content

Abstract

China and India are frequently referred to as emerging superpowers. First, we present evidence that by virtue of their economic strength, their ability to absorb and adapt to repeated foreign intrusions, and their cultural reach, both countries should be more properly regarded as re-emerging superpowers. They qualified for that status even when the Roman Empire was at its peak, and continued to qualify until well into the seventeenth century. It was only with increasing intrusions by Europeans and, to a lesser extent Americans, from that time until well into the twentieth century, that their status began to be undermined. A series of short vignettes describing political, economic, and scientific milestones for China, India, and the United States illustrates the domestic evolution of the three countries since the middle of the twentieth century and the relationships among them.

Then we present highlights in the development of science and higher education: in China and India, from their first contacts with modern science to the present; and in the United States, from the Constitutional Convention of 1787 to the present. These highlights are followed by a short comparison of research and development expenditures in 1991 (the first year in which relatively complete, reliable data are available for China and India), and a brief explanation of their government science policy structures. We offer two “snapshots”—the first from 1995, the second from 2004—that provide detailed data on R&D investments and human resources in the three countries for those years.

We conclude by speculating on the future status of China, India, and the United States during the next half century. Will they continue to be superpowers? In what ways are their science policies likely to enable their superpower status? Will their status as superpowers provide the means to further strengthen their science and technology systems and lead to economic and military outputs of wide-ranging global significance?

Section snippets

Context and overview

China and India have historically dominated the world's economic order because of their large populations and coherent political structures. The United States, a newcomer on the world scene, shares a common colonial heritage with India within the British Empire, and like China it endured armed conflicts with European powers. Today all three countries are leaders in global economic growth, with flourishing science and engineering communities. The articles in this volume compare their scientific

China: development of science and higher education

A decade ago two excellent reviews of science and technology in China and India were presented in this journal by Song Jian [5] and Rama Rao [6]. The following sections build upon and supplement material presented by those two distinguished leaders and scholars. Dr. Song's article later in this issue provides current insights that are not available anywhere else.

First contacts with the West, prior to 1900

On the Indian subcontinent, by 1770, the British (or more precisely and until 1857, the Honorable British East India Company, which had come to India primarily for trade but gradually began to engage in local politics), had all but expelled the French and had gradually begun to expand its territorial reach at the expense of the declining Mughal Empire and lesser independent and/or client states.

The Colonial era

The first English immigrants to what was to become the United States of America arrived in the colony of Virginia and established a settlement they named Jamestown, in honor of King James I. In 1620, another group established the town of Plymouth in what was to become the colony of Massachusetts. In 1636, Harvard College was established as the first institution of higher education in the British colonies. By the time the 13 English colonies declared their independence in 1776, approximately a

R&D expenditure estimates for 1991

Meaningful comparisons of R&D expenditures depend on the availability of consistent data from all three countries. Science-and-technology-related data for India prior to the mid-1980s are scattered and problematic. According to data provided by the Indian Department of Science and Technology, in 1991 the country's R&D investment was approximately 37,500 million rupees ($1683 million-PPP or $1652 million-MER) (refer back to the box on page 2 of this article for an explanation of the difference).

Framework for this special issue

The first five sections of this special issue of Technology in Society present five themes associated with science and technology policy in China, India, and the United States; the sixth section consists of papers on selected frontier research in selected scientific disciplines or applications. This Introduction provides the overall context for the articles that follow as well as integrative comparisons. Each of the six sections contains three articles, each written by a distinguished expert

The future

Science, technology, and higher education in these three countries, as well as their relations with other social and economic sectors, have changed rapidly in recent years. This trend is particularly noteworthy in China and India. Changes in science and technology and their social, economic, and political policies and contexts will continue over the years ahead, but the current momentum is a powerful global force. These three nations represent a large portion of the world's economic wealth,

J. Thomas Ratchford is Distinguished Visiting Professor and Director of the Science and Trade Policy Program at the George Mason University Law School. His professional activities address innovation and the interface between trade, technology, and law. He writes and lectures extensively on China–US science and technology issues. He also serves as Principal of STTA, LC, a consulting firm providing analytic and advisory services.

Ratchford was Associate Director for Policy and International

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    J. Thomas Ratchford is Distinguished Visiting Professor and Director of the Science and Trade Policy Program at the George Mason University Law School. His professional activities address innovation and the interface between trade, technology, and law. He writes and lectures extensively on China–US science and technology issues. He also serves as Principal of STTA, LC, a consulting firm providing analytic and advisory services.

    Ratchford was Associate Director for Policy and International Affairs at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the George H.W. Bush Administration. Prior to his confirmation by the Senate to his OSTP position in 1989, he was Associate Executive Officer of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). As a staff member of the Science Committee of the US House of Representatives in the 1970s he was one of the first scientists to serve Congress full-time.

    Dr. Ratchford holds degrees in physics from Davidson College and the University of Virginia. He is a fellow of AAAS and the American Physical Society, former Congressional Fellow of the American Political Science Association, and member of the Council on Foreign Relations and Phi Beta Kappa.

    William A. Blanpied. Prior to his retirement from the federal government in January 2003 William A. Blanpied had been, since 1983, Senior International Analyst at the National Science Foundation (NSF), except for the period from July 1999 through August 2002 when he served as Director of the NSF Tokyo Regional Office. From January 1999 to the present, he has been a principal point of contact in the United States for organizing an approximately annual series of Sino-US Science Policy Dialogues, funded in part by NSF (www.law.gmu.edu/nctl/stpp/us_china.php).

    Prior to his service with NSF, which he joined in 1976, Blanpied held faculty appointments in the physics departments at Case Western Reserve, Yale, and Harvard Universities. From 1969 to 1971, he was a member of NSF's Science Education Liaison staff in New Delhi, India.

    Blanpied received his BS degree from Yale in 1955 and his Ph.D. from Princeton University in 1959. He is the author or co-author of three books, and has published numerous articles and reviews in the professional literature on physics, history of science, international science, and science policy. During the Fall 2003 semester he was a Visiting Lecturer at Tsinghua University, Beijing, where he offered a graduate course on science and technology policy.

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