Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Eastern and Central China: A temporal and a cross-regional decomposition analysis

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.09.009

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volume 103, February 2016, Pages 284-297

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.09.009 Get rights and content

Highlights

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Main energy economic indicators between central and eastern China are compared.
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Two forms of carbon intensity are decomposed with a temporal and a cross-regional LMDI technique.
•
Growth mode of Beijing and its surrounding areas should be integrally planned.
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Economic growth in central China needs to struggle out of extensive and high-carbon style.
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Highly-efficient coal utilization appears extremely important in object region.

Abstract

With heavy industrial structure moving westward, to make out the difference of low-carbon development between eastern and central China seems important. For this purpose, this paper compares several representative indicators about energy-related CO₂ emissions among nine typical regions from 1990 to 2010. Then two forms of carbon intensity, namely, CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP and CO₂ emissions per capita are decomposed with a temporal and a cross-regional Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index technique. Thus the roles of driving forces for the changes in carbon intensity are analyzed by region during five study periods, and the main causes for the variation in carbon intensity between eastern and central China in 2010 are also compared. The analysis results show that central China has a challenge to keep the relative lower levels of these two forms of carbon intensity compared with that of eastern China, economic growth in central China needs to choose a low-carbon development road. In terms of eastern China, growth mode of Beijing and its surrounding areas should be integrally planned from the viewpoint of regional coordination. Finally, high-efficient utilization of coal should be promoted in heavy industrial sector for the mitigation of CO₂ emissions in central and eastern China.

Introduction

Due to rapid industrialization and urbanization, the increment of CO₂ emissions in China had kept a continuously high speed for over 30 years, and such uptrend cannot be changed within mid-term. China has become the largest CO₂ emission country in the world (Wikipedia, 2015). Besides, energy consumption has been recognized as the main contributor to the rise in CO₂ emissions during the entire process of global industrialization. Fossil fuel combustion produces roughly 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions in the form of CO₂, while it also contributes to the methane (CH₄) and nitrous (N₂O) emissions (IEA [Clean Coal Center] 2002). Even in the most environmentally ambitious interpretation of the Copenhagen Accord, energy-related CO₂ emissions are forecasted to reach 31.9 Gt in 2020, and share about 70% of global greenhouse gas emissions (IEA, World Energy Outlook, 2010). In 2008, coal accounted for nearly 32% of global fossil fuel consumption and 38% of its related CO₂ emissions (Abadie et al., 2011). Moreover, over 80% of CO₂ emissions from China in 2008 are caused by coal combustion (CDIAC [Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center] 2011). It can be imagined that CO₂ emission mitigation in China should be mainly depended on low-carbon coal utilization technology and developing non-fossil energy. As well known, CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP should be reduced by 17%, while energy intensity should be reduced by 16% during the 12th five-year-plan period (i.e., from 2011 to 2015), and these statements clearly express a focus on the measures of energy-saving and CO₂ emission mitigation. Moreover, the national planning target in China requires that CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP should be reduced by 40–45% from 2005 to 2020. Undoubtedly, Chinese economy will still need to follow the road of low-carbon development from a long term view. Therefore, this carbon intensity will still appear a downward trend within long-term, whereas CO₂ emissions will still go upward even after 2020. Under these circumstances, Chinese government should adopt effective measures and policies to mitigate CO₂ emissions in order to cope with increasing pressure from international community.

On the other side, the regional disparities related energy consumption structure should be considered. Due to imbalances in the economic level and resource distribution, the regional characteristics of energy consumption in China also display distinct patterns. According to the situation of economy and geography, China has been officially divided into three dominant regions, namely eastern, central and western regions. Generally speaking, central region is considered as production base of agriculture, energy and raw materials in China. During the process of industrial structure migration, central region undertakes the responsibility for the linkage between eastern and western regions. Then what are the characteristics of the regional disparities involving energy consumption growth and energy-related CO₂ emission increment? And what can we learn from such regional differences? In particular, with heavy industrial structure in eastern region moving westward, how will central region perform to overcome the “bottleneck” of energy and environment? A lot of studies have analyzed energy consumption and carbon emissions from China or some provinces in China, and decomposed them over the periods from the 1950s to the 2000s (Huang, 1993, Liu et al., 2007, Ma and Stern, 2008, Sinton and Levine, 1994, Wang et al., 2005, Wei and Zhou, 2009, Wu et al., 2006, Zhang, 2003). These time series decompositions are helpful for understanding why Chinese economy had become energy dependent and high carbonized, and what factors had reduced the ratio of carbon emissions to GDP. However, such time series studies cannot make out why differences in carbon emissions occur between different provincial regions in China. Then why carbon intensity was changed by region during several studied periods should be analyzed temporal decomposition approach. And what driving forces had caused such regional disparity should be analyzed by cross-regional decomposition approach.

According to the scale and speed of regional economic development, this paper selects nine typical provinces and cities in eastern and central China as object region. Then several energy economic indicators such as energy-related CO₂ emissions and carbon intensity are compared among those regions from 1990 to 2010. Then the major factors governing CO₂ emissions per unit of GDP and CO₂ emissions per capita are analyzed by applying a temporal and a cross-regional Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (i.e., LMDI) technique. And the driving forces that bring about differences in above two forms of carbon intensity between eastern and central China are comparatively analyzed. Finally, policy suggestions are given according to the result analyses. In this study, not only the changing processes of CO₂ emissions by region in eastern and central China are decomposed and compared, the driving forces for the difference of CO₂ emissions between eastern and central China are also decomposed and analyzed.

Section snippets

Methodology

Studies on the decomposition analysis of intensity indicators associated with CO₂ emissions have become very popular in research on climate change. Two kinds of decomposition analysis methodologies (i.e., Index Decomposition Analysis and Structural Decomposition Analysis) are often used to depict changing in energy-related CO₂ emissions. Many index decomposition methods such as the Laspeyres Index (LI), the Refined Laspeyres Index (RLI), the Arithmetic Mean Divisia Index (AMDI), and the

Comparison of main indicators

Firstly, main energy economic indicators associated with energy-related CO₂ emissions by region are evaluated during the entire study period from 1990 to 2010. Then the interaction of economic growth, energy consumption and its related CO₂ emissions in eastern and central China can generally be understood.

In terms of energy intensity, only primary energy consumption has been considered in this study in order to avoid double accounting. As shown in Fig. 2, primary energy consumption per unit of

Conclusions

In summary, two forms of energy-related CO₂ emission intensity between eastern and central China are compared and decomposed. Firstly, CO₂ emissions per capita in central China consistently kept at a relatively lower level compared with that in most eastern regions during the entire study period. The income effects remained the primary driving force to make this variation, and such role had worked on a steady increment in the level of this carbon intensity in central China. Due to lower lever

Acknowledgments

This study was supported by The Energy Foundation and The National Social Science Fund in China (10BJLO34).

Aijun Li The current research direction is energy economic analysis and regional planning. The main research achievements include the interregion analysis of energy, economics and environment in China, regional energy-saving potential assessment and energy technology assessment.

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