Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

Volume 78, Issue 2, February 2011, Pages 231-243

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019 Get rights and content

Abstract

In the last three decades much knowledge has been produced on how best to conduct foresight exercises, but little is known on how foresight should be integrated with the innovation effort of a company. Drawing on empirical evidence from 19 case studies and 107 interviews, we identify three roles that corporate foresight should play to maximize the innovation capacity of a firm: (1) the strategist role, which explores new business fields; (2) the initiator role, which increases the number of innovation concepts and ideas; and (3) the opponent role, which challenges innovation projects to increase the quality of their output.

Introduction

When asked about what direction research on foresight should follow, scholars come to different conclusions. Some argue that new tools are needed [1]. Others point to the lack of help for practitioners to find the right tools [2], concluding that education is needed to create foresight literacy [3], [4]. A third group highlights the need to develop mechanisms to allow for more participation of stakeholders [5], [6], [7] and thus increase the impact of foresight activities [8], [9], [10], [11], [12], [13].

This paper agrees on the importance of these suggestions, but argues that none of them can ensure the success of foresight exercises in a corporate context. This article argues that it is important to view matters from the perspective of the users of the results of corporate foresight exercises. Only then will it be possible to create a holistic understanding of possible impacts and drive the discussion on how to use foresight to create value and increases the competitiveness of a firm.

Based on our literature review in the strategic management field, we argue that corporate foresight should be expected to support the renewal of the portfolio of strategic resources. These strategic resources have been highlighted as the basis of the competitive advantage of a firm [14]. The ability to renew the portfolio of strategic resources when faced with external (discontinuous) change has been described as ‘dynamic capabilities’ [15]. We therefore propose to judge corporate foresight on its contribution to this ability.

More specifically we aim to explore the ability of corporate foresight to increase the innovation capacity of a firm. We differentiate into the capacity to innovate incrementally, i.e. enhanced or new products and services within current business field and the capacity to innovate radically, i.e. creating products and services in new business fields often using new technologies.

The literature review provides guidance to observe the impact of corporate foresight on the innovation capacity of a firm.

To explore the impact of corporate foresight on the innovation capacity we collected empirical evidence from 19 multinational companies. Of a total of 107 interviews, 42 were conducted with internal stakeholders, generating insight into how foresight results are used within the company. Through cross-case analysis, we are able to create an understanding of the ways in which corporate foresight activities can contribute to the innovation capacity of a firm.

Section snippets

Creating and sustaining a competitive advantage

Research following the resource-based view has shown that companies use certain strategic resources to out-compete their rivals. To be of competitive value, these resources need to have three characteristics. They should be (1) appropriable–i.e., difficult to imitate, substitute, or transfer; (2) scarce; and (3) in demand–i.e., the resource needs to yield a competitive advantage [14].

Research on dynamic capabilities has shown that these resources lose their competitive relevance over time [16],

Research design

The objective of this research, therefore, is to help increase the implementation of corporate foresight in companies. More specifically, the aims are to broaden knowledge of (1) the impact and value creation of corporate foresight and (2) its role in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm.

Results

Through cross-case analysis, we were able to identify three generic roles that corporate foresight can play to enhance the innovation capacity of a firm (see Fig. 1).

Using a four-step innovation process as a frame of reference, the three roles can be positioned at the start of the innovation funnel (initiator role), outside the innovation funnel (strategist role) and along the innovation funnel (opponent role). Within these three roles, activities are conducted to boost the innovation

Implications for practice

Several examples–such as the failure of Kodak to respond effectively to the discontinuous change toward digital photography–highlight the need to establish effective mechanisms that allow for a timely response to disruptive change. Our assessment showed that corporate foresight can and should contribute through three roles to the ability to exploit the windows of opportunity that arise from disruptive change.

Most companies that used corporate foresight in a strategist role have a management

René Rohrbeck is the head of innovation management at the European Center for Information and Communication Technology (EICT) and an associate researcher at the Berlin University of Technology. His research interests are organizational future orientation, open innovation, and technology management. His works have been published in several books and in peer-reviewed journals, among them R & D Management, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, and Global Business and Organizational Excellence

References (107)

V. Coates et al.
On the future of technological forecasting
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change
(2001)
R. Miller
Futures literacy: a hybrid strategic scenario method
Futures
(2007)
T.J. Gordon et al.
Frontiers of futures research: what's next?
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change
(2005)
F. Scapolo
New horizons and challenges for future-oriented technology analysis—the 2004 EU–US seminar
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change
(2005)
T. Konnola et al.
Diversity in foresight: insights from the fostering of innovation ideas
Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change
(2007)
L.A. Costanzo
Strategic foresight in a high-speed environment
Futures
(Mar 2004)
G.S. Day et al.
Driving through the fog: managing at the edge
Long Range Plann.
(2004)
H. Lee et al.
The effect of new product radicality and scope on the extent and speed of innovation diffusion
J. Manage.
(2003)
G.S. Day et al.
Peripheral vision: sensing and acting on weak signals
Long Range Plann.
(2004)
S.G. Winter
Specialised perception, selection, and strategic surprise: learning from the moths and bees
Long Range Plann.
(2004)

M. Pina e Cunha et al.

Using teams to avoid peripheral blindness

Long Range Plann.

(2007)

M.J. Eppler et al.

Visual strategizing: the systematic use of visualization in the strategic-planning process

Long Range Plann.

(2009)

H.C. Lucas et al.

Disruptive technology: how Kodak missed the digital photography revolution

J. Strateg. Inf. Syst.

(2009)

M. Perona et al.

Complexity management and supply chain performance assessment. A field study and a conceptual framework

Int. J. Prod. Econ.

(Jul 8 2004)

A. Kinra et al.

A macro-institutional perspective on supply chain environmental complexity

Int. J. Prod. Econ.

(Oct 2008)

A. Gunasekaran et al.

Responsive supply chain: a competitive strategy in a networked economy

Omega Int. J. Manage. Sci.

(Aug 2008)

M. von Zedtwitz et al.

Market versus technology drive in R&D internationalization: four different patterns of managing research and development

Res. Policy

(2002)

M. Kodama

Innovation and knowledge creation through leadership-based strategic community: case study on high-tech company in Japan

Technovation

(Mar 2007)

E.J. Nijssen et al.

Unraveling willingness to cannibalize: a closer look at the barrier to radical innovation

Technovation

(2005)

A. Herrmann et al.

An empirical study of the antecedents for radical product innovations and capabilities for transformation

J. Eng. Tech. Manage.

(6/2007)

S.C. Jain

Environmental scanning in United-States corporations

Long Range Plann.

(1984)

M.L. Tushman et al.

Executive succession, strategic reorientations, and organization evolution—the minicomputer industry as a case in point

Technol. Soc.

(1985)

C.J. Lambe et al.

Alliances, external technology acquisition, and discontinuous technological change

J. Prod. Innov. Manage.

(Mar 1997)

M. Nieto et al.

Absorptive capacity, technological opportunity, knowledge spillovers, and innovative effort

Technovation

(Oct 2005)

T. Ritter et al.

Network competence: its impact on innovation success and its antecedents

J. Bus. Res.

(Sep 2003)

J.G. Wissema

Futures research—is it useful?

Long Range Plann.

(1981)

I.H. Wilson

Futures forecasting for strategic planning at general electric

Long Range Plann.

(1973)

F. Phillips

On S-curves and tipping points

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change

(2007)

M. McMaster

Foresight: exploring the structure of the future

Long Range Plann.

(Apr 1996)

R.U. Ayres

On forecasting discontinuities

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change

(Sep 2000)

K. Blind et al.

Current foresight activities in central Europe

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change

(Jan 1999)

H. Grupp et al.

National technology foresight activities around the globe—resurrection and new paradigms

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change

(Jan 1999)

A. Hines

A practitioner's view of the future of futures studies

Futures

(2002)

A.L. Porter et al.

Technology futures analysis: toward integration of the field and new methods

Technol. Forecast. Soc. Change

(Mar 2004)

R. Van der Helm

Ten insolvable dilemmas of participation and why foresight has to deal with them

Foresight

(2007)

S. Harroussi

F. DenHond et al.

Environmental technology foresight: New horizons for technology management

Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manage.

(Mar 1996)

K. Cuhls

From forecasting to foresight processes—new participative foresight activities in Germany

J. Forecast.

(Mar–Apr 2003)

A.A. Salo

Incentives in technology foresight

Int. J. Technol. Manage.

(2001)

M. Oner et al.

Pitfalls in and success factors of corporate foresight projects

Int. J. Foresight Innov. Policy

(2007)

D. Collis et al.

Competing on resources: strategy in the 1990s

Harv. Bus. Rev.

(1995)

D.J. Teece et al.

Dynamic capabilities and strategic management

Strateg. Manage. J.

(Aug 1997)

C.E. Helfat et al.

The dynamic resource-based view: capability lifecycles

Strateg. Manage. J.

(Oct 2003)

S. Dutta et al.

Conceptualizing and measuring capabilities: methodology and empirical application

Strateg. Manage. J.

(Mar 2005)

V. Ambrosini et al.

What are dynamic capabilities and are they a useful construct in strategic management?

Int. J. Manage. Rev.

(2009)

K.M. Eisenhardt et al.

Dynamic capabilities: what are they?

Strateg. Manage. J.

(Oct–Nov 2000)

D. Levinthal

Surviving Schumpeterian environments: an evolutionary perspective

Ind. Corp. Change

(January 1, 1992)

C.J.G. Gersick

Revolutionary change theories—a multilevel exploration of the punctuated equilibrium paradigm

Acad. Manage. Rev.

(Jan 1991)

S.L. Brown et al.

The art of continuous change: linking complexity theory and time-paced evolution in relentlessly shifting organizations

Adm. Sci. Q.

(Mar 1997)

C.M. Christensen

The innovator's dilemma: when new technologies cause great firms to fail

(1997)

Cited by (225)

Strategic foresight and business model innovation: The sequential mediating role of sensemaking and learning
2024, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
Foresight is fundamental to strategy scholarship and can affect organizational outcomes such as innovation. However, few attempts have been made to link foresight with business model innovation (BMI). Therefore, it remains empirically unclear whether and through which mechanisms strategic foresight influences BMI development. To address these shortcomings, this study analyzes the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI and the mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. The data were derived from surveying a sample of senior managers at 146 Finnish organizations (both large firms and SMEs) and the analysis was conducted by applying structural equation modeling. The findings provide evidence of a direct association between strategic foresight and BMI and suggest a partial mediating effect of learning and, more importantly, sequential mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. This study offers valuable insights into the relationships among BMI, strategic foresight, sensemaking, and learning. It enriches theory and practice by providing empirical support for the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI, uncovering the multifaceted roles of the mechanisms that influence BMI, and proposing a model that could help managers handle barriers to BMI robustly and systematically.
Gaining competitive advantage through corporate foresight value creation—The evidence from ASEAN automotive local affiliate companies
2023, Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity
Previous studies of corporate foresight in the automotive industry mainly focused on principal companies (PCs), while studies focusing on local affiliate companies (LACs) are limited, even though LACs play an essential role in dealing with local environmental dynamism. Therefore, this study aims to investigate corporate foresight in automotive LACs by analyzing the effect of corporate foresight on the creation of organizational value. The authors employed a quantitative method to analyze the theoretical hypotheses by involving nine LACs in ASEAN. The findings of this study indicate that corporate foresight activities in LACs have a significant positive effect on organizational learning capability, where they have an essential mediating role in enhancing the creation of organizational value in terms of ambidexterity and agility capability, which is a foundation for organizations to achieve a competitive advantage. The novelty of this study is the use of corporate foresight value creation framework in automotive LACs. The results of this study could assist managers and practitioners in automotive industry to better understand the benefit derived from the practice of implementing corporate foresight in LACs, and it is expected that this value creation could motivate these people further to enhance the practice of corporate foresight in LACs.
How to anchor design thinking in the future: Empirical evidence on the usage of strategic foresight in design thinking projects
2023, Futures
Many organizations use design thinking (DT) to develop future products and services. DT is often used for its ability to serve as a common “language” and platform to enable market-facing departments and technology-oriented units to cocreate innovations. DT has been shown to be a powerful tool for helping to identify and connect the needs of average customers (personas) with technical solutions that form the basis for winning products. In this paper, we investigate the extent to which DT professionals already use strategic foresight (SF) methods that anticipate future customer needs and highlight emerging technologies to expand classical DT and anchor their projects in the future. Using survey data on 302 DT projects, we report on the extent to which SF methods are used in DT projects, the overriding types of SF methods in DT projects, and their impact on project success.
Exploring knowledge creation, capabilities, and relations in a distributed policy foresight system: Case Finland
2023, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
In an uncertain and increasingly interdependent world, cross-sectoral policy foresight is needed to tackle complex phenomena. However, most existing foresight studies have focused on a single sector or domain. This article adopts a systems perspective and explores knowledge creation, capabilities, and relations in a distributed policy foresight system cutting across government sectors and national, regional, and local administrative levels. The article is based on empirical material collected in Finland in 2019, describing the Finnish policy foresight system's existing organizational and systemic foresight capacities. Our results indicate that policy foresight considers relatively narrow future horizons relying heavily on futures knowledge that is accessible in the immediate operating environment. The full potential of foresight is not utilized. Distributed foresight collaboration at the systems level is hindered by lack of coherence, coordination, and collaboration structures. We propose ways to improve the foresight system's performance and point to ecosystem literature as a productive direction for foresight research to further the paradigm of distributed foresight systems.
Innovation intelligence in managing co-creation process between tech-enabled corporations and startups
2023, Technological Forecasting and Social Change
This paper focuses on the issue of digital tech-enabled corporations that co-create an innovative digital-output with startups; in this process, they require knowledge for decision-making known as innovation intelligence to build a co-creation space by implementing and fortifying a collective intelligence. In this regard, this research introduces co-creation realization, co-creation pivoting, and co-creator relationship management as three key innovation intelligence topics (KITs). Then, it addresses the dynamic capabilities to create indispensable knowledge for decision-making in these three topics through empirical insight from a multi-case study in four tech-enabled corporations in the Iranian entrepreneurial e-commerce ecosystem. The results indicate two plannable and unplannable categories as organizational and group level capabilities for each recognized KITs, respectively. The proposed innovation intelligence framework represents how these capabilities are interrelated and the effect of strengthening and weakening them on the co-creation process by affecting collective intelligence. The results can provide insight to tech-enabled corporations in employing innovation intelligence to overcome a dipole between corporations and startups, which results in managing the co-creation process effectively. Also, it contributes to constantly filling the dynamic innovation gap between the expectations of innovation co-creation and actual achievements among managers during the co-creation process.
A quantitative and qualitative approach on the evaluation of technological pathways: A comparative national-scale Delphi study
2022, Futures
The Delphi approach is a central method in technological forecasting. It has been used in thousands of scholarly works and extensively outside academia, often in relatively narrowly scoped case studies. With the notable exception of Japan and a few other countries, broad Delphi studies run in the context of national-level policy planning are seldom seen. This study presents results on implementing the long-running Japanese Science and Technology Prediction Delphi survey developed by the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) in Finland. This study reports the implementation of the 702 statement Delphi and on the reflections of the expert opinion study against quantitative data on Finnish research capabilities. The differences in expert opinion are discussed between Japanese and Finnish experts and the importance is highlighted that contextual factors play in responses received from the experts even on extremely global issues, such as the development of science and technology. It is proposed that quantitative data can serve as an important contextualization tool for the expert opinion results.

View all citing articles on Scopus

Hans Georg Gemünden is a full tenured Professor for Technology and Innovation Management at the Berlin University of Technology. His current research focuses on success factors of radical innovations, project management, entrepreneurship, promoters and champions, teams, inter-organizational cooperation and innovation networks and innovations in health care. His work has been published in Organization Science, Research Policy, Journal of Product Innovation Management, Creativity and Innovation Management, International Journal of Research in Marketing, Journal of Business Research, Management International Review, IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, R&D Management and others.

View full text