Elsevier

Social Science Research

Volume 33, Issue 4, December 2004, Pages 681-701
Social Science Research

Population size, perceived threat, and exclusion: a multiple-indicators analysis of attitudes toward foreigners in Germany

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssresearch.2003.11.003Get rights and content

Abstract

The major objective of the present research is to examine the long-standing theoretical proposition that hostility and discriminatory attitudes toward out-groups are likely to rise with relative size of the out-group population. Using data from The German General Social Survey (ALLBUS, 1996) we provide, for the first time, an examination of the impact of both actual and perceived size of the foreign population on discriminatory attitudes toward foreigners. Specifically, by using a multiple-indicators analytical model, we examine the theoretical proposition that perceived threat posed by an out-group population mediates the relations between size of the out-group and exclusionary attitudes toward the out-group. The analysis does not support the theoretical expectation that actual size of the foreign population in the locale is likely to increase either perception of threat or exclusionary attitudes. Perceived size, however, is found to be associated, as expected, with perceived threat, and perceived threat is found to mediate the relations between perceived size and support for exclusionary practices against foreigners—the higher the perceived size, the more pronounced are both the threat and anti-foreigner attitudes. The findings and their significance are discussed in the light of sociological theories on the relations between minority size and discrimination.

Introduction

Students of ethnic inequality have long suggested that the relative size of the minority population has significant consequences for ethnic group relations. Specifically, anti-minority sentiments, prejudice, and discrimination are likely to rise with the relative size of the minority population (e.g., Blalock, 1967; Fosset and Kiecolt, 1989; Olzak, 1992; Quillian, 1995, Quillian, 1996; Taylor, 1998, Taylor, 2000). The logic embodied in this expectation contends that an increase in the proportion of a subordinate minority is often perceived by majority group members as a source of competition over scarce resources, hence, as a competitive threat to their actual interests and prerogatives. This, in turn, is likely to increase hostility, antagonism, and discrimination against the minority population.

Whereas the body of research on the relationship between minority relative size and ethnic inequality at the ecological level has become substantial (e.g., Fosset, 1984; Frisbie and Niedert, 1977; Semyonov et al., 1984, Semyonov et al., 2000; Tienda and Lii, 1987; Wilcox and Roof, 1978), very little research has been done on the relationship between perceived size and anti-minority sentiments at the individual level. In the present paper we intend to bridge this gap. In what follows we examine, using multiple indicators with structural equation model, the extent to which exclusionary attitudes toward foreign populations in Germany are affected by actual and perceived size of the foreign population, and the extent to which perception of threat intervenes between size, (whether actual or perceived) and anti-foreigner sentiments. By doing so, we will be in a position to evaluate theoretical propositions regarding the relationships between minority size and discriminatory attitudes.

Section snippets

Theory and research

A large body of sociological research has repeatedly demonstrated that discrimination, prejudice, and anti-minority sentiments are likely to vary across places. Whereas prejudice and discrimination are evident everywhere, and whereas subordinate ethnic minorities are disadvantaged everywhere, prejudice, discriminatory attitudes, and socioeconomic disadvantages are more pronounced in places where the minority populations are heavily concentrated. In other words, discrimination, hostility, and

Foreigners in Germany—the setting

Germany has become a prototype of a society inhabited by large numbers of immigrants. Currently, foreigners comprise approximately 9% of the German population (totaling 7.174 million in 1995). The flow of foreigners to Germany started with the implementation of the “guest workers” program in the mid-fifties to meet the demand for manual labor, mostly in the industrial and service sectors of the economy. Since then immigration to Germany has intensified, and as a result the ethnic fabric and the

Data source and variables

Data for the present analysis were obtained from the 1996 Special German General Social Survey (Allbus) conducted by the Center for Survey Research and Methodology (ZUMA). The 1996 Allbus focuses on attitudes toward foreigners in Germany and is based on a national representative sample of the adult German population (aged 18+). The sample is drawn from all 16 federal states, which could be further divided into 59 districts. The districts are distinguished according to their metropolitan status

Descriptive overview

Descriptive statistics for the alternative indicators for size of the foreign population, and for the measured indicators of threat and for the measured indicators exclusionary attitudes, are displayed in Table 1. The figures reveal that an average German adult lives in a district with 8.32% foreigners. There is, however, considerable variation around this mean (SD=6.02) with some districts having over 30% foreigners (like the Rhein-Main-Region including Frankfurt) and others with only 1%

Conclusions

The research reported here was mainly concerned with examining the long-term theoretical propositions regarding the relation between minority size and discriminatory attitudes toward the minority population. Theoretical formulations and previous studies on the issue suggest that increase in minority relative size is viewed by members of the majority population as a threat to their interests, prerogatives, and quality of life. Such competitive threats, in turn, are likely to increase hostility

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    Earlier version of the paper presented at the Meeting of the Research Committee on Social Stratification and Mobility, Berkeley, CA, August 2001. The research reported in this paper was supported by Grant No. 596-154-04198 awarded by the German–Israel Foundation. The authors thank William Bridges, Tyrone Forman, Aribert Heyder, Irena Kogan, Evgeniya Kotsiubinski, Anthony M. Orum, Thomas Pettigrew, and anonymous reviewer for help and advice.

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