Elsevier

Scientific African

Volume 12, July 2021, e00844
Scientific African

Situation assessment and natural dynamics of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria, 31 May 2020

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sciaf.2021.e00844Get rights and content
Under a Creative Commons license
open access

Abstract

Background

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) remains a global public health issue due to its high transmission and case fatality rate. There is apprehension on how to curb the spread and mitigate the socio-economic impacts of the pandemic, but timely and reliable daily confirmed cases' estimates are pertinent to the pandemic's containment. This study therefore conducted a situation assessment and applied simple predictive models to explore COVID-19 progression in Nigeria as at 31 May 2020.

Methods

Data used for this study were extracted from the websites of the European Centre for Disease Control (World Bank data) and Nigeria Centre for Disease Control. Besides descriptive statistics, four predictive models were fitted to investigate the pandemic natural dynamics.

Results

The case fatality rate of COVID-19 was 2.8%. A higher number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 was reported daily after the relaxation of lockdown than before and during lockdown. Of the 36 states in Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory, 35 have been affected with COVID-19. Most active cases were in Lagos (n = 4064; 59.2%), followed by Kano (n = 669; 9.2%). The percentage of COVID-19 recovery in Nigeria (29.5%) was lower compared to South Africa (50.3%), but higher compared to Kenya (24.1%). The cubic polynomial model had the best fit. The projected value for COVID-19 cumulative cases for 30 June 2020 in Nigeria was 27,993 (95% C.I: 27,001–28,986).

Conclusion

The daily confirmed cases of COVID-19 are increasing in Nigeria. Increasing testing capacity for the disease may further reveal more confirmed cases. As observed in this study, the cubic polynomial model currently offers a better prediction of the future COVID-19 cases in Nigeria.

Keywords

COVID-19
Simple mathematical model
Growth curve, polynomial model
Nigeria

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