Optimization of maintenance policy using the proportional hazard model
Introduction
Reliability is an important parameter to assess industrial system performance. Its value depends on the system structure as well as on the component availability and reliability. These values decrease as the components’ ages increase, i.e. their working times are influenced by their interactions with each other, applied maintenance policy and their environments. Among the different types of maintenance policy, we suggest to study the preventive maintenance (PM), widely applied in large systems such as transport systems, production systems, etc.
PM consists of a set of technical, administrative and management actions to decrease the components’ ages in order to improve the availability (and the reliability) of a system (reduction of probability failure or the degradation level of a system's component). These actions can be characterized by their effects on the component age: the component becomes “as good as new”, the component age is reduced, or the state of the component is lightly affected only to ensure its necessary operating conditions, the component appears to be “as bad as old”. The PM corresponds to the maintenance actions that come about when the system is operating. However, the actions that occur after the system breaks down are regrouped under the title of corrective maintenance (CM).
Some of major expenses incurred by industry are related to the replacements and repairs of manufacturing machinery in production processes. The PM is a main approach adopted to reduce these costs.
A lot of studies have been made to reach the “optimal” PM policy. Some papers [1], [2], [3], [4] present surveys over the PM models and its evolution since the PM concept has appeared. Recently, studies begin to concentrate on the optimization of PM policies. This optimization process can take different ways, it can be made by adding features and conditions that make this PM policy more realistic, i.e. taking into consideration working conditions, the production schedule of the industry, perfect and imperfect actions [5], [6], [7], [8], [9].
In spite of CM having a direct influence on the component, it was not sufficiently studied.
Under the title of PM optimization, Tsai et al. [10] presented periodic PM of a system with deteriorated components. Two activities, simple PM and preventive replacement, are simultaneously considered to arrange the PM schedule of a system. The CM effect was only taken into account from the cost point of view. Dedopoulos et al. [11] have developed a method to determine the optimal number of PM activities to be scheduled within a time horizon for a single unit working in a continuous mode of operation characterized by an increasing failure rate. Only the CM cost is considered. The same issue is repeated with Park et al. [12] when they tried to minimize the cost of a periodic maintenance policy of a system subject to slow degradation. Levitin et al. [13], Zhao [14] and Hsu [3] have considered the CM as a minimum failure while they were proposing their optimized PM policies.
In this paper, the proportional hazard model (PHM) is used as a modeling tool to integrate the effect of the CM on the component's reliability through its influence on the component's age.
The PHM was first introduced by Cox (1972). Since then various applications of the PHM in reliability analysis have been presented. The basic approach in the proportional hazards modeling is to assume that the hazard rate of a system consists of two multiplicative factors, the baseline hazard rate, h0(t), and generally an exponential function including the effects of the monitored variables. For example, these monitored variables can be lubricant pressure, temperature, etc. Hence, the hazard rate of a system can be written as [23] h(t; z)=h0(t) exp(zβ), where z is a row vector consisting of covariates, explanatory variables, any monitored variable or any state indicating variable, and β is a column vector consisting of the corresponding regression parameters. The unknown parameter β defines the influence of the monitored variables on the failure process. In this study, we propose to consider the CM as a monitored variable and we offer a way to calculate its β. The influence of the CM action would be considered as an important factor while choosing the PM action.
In fact, Kumar et al. [15] review the existing literature on the PHM. At first, the characteristics of the method are explained and its importance in reliability analysis is presented. In order to determine economical maintenance intervals, Percy et al. [16] investigate two principal types of general model, which have wider applicability. The first considers fixed PM intervals and is based on the delayed alternating renewal process. The second is adaptable, allowing variable PM intervals, and is based on proportional hazards. Martorell et al. [17] have presented a new age-dependent reliability model that includes parameters related to surveillance and maintenance effectiveness and working conditions of the components. The accelerated life model and PHM have been considered as a tool to introduce the above factors into the reliability model. Kumar et al. [18] have used the PHM and TTT plotting in order to plan an optimal maintenance under age replacement policy.
In this paper, the PHM is used to introduce the CM factor into the component's reliability and consequently as a decisive parameter in the PM planning policy. A new method to estimate β is introduced. Comparisons have been established between policies that take into account the effect of the CM and those that do not.
This introduction is followed by seven sections that present successively the basic model, the proposed PHM, the system reliability estimation, the cost calculation and the action choice, the case study and finally a conclusion.
Section snippets
Basic model
The PHM was introduced for the first time in 1972 by Dr. Cox. He aimed to consider the effects of different covariates that influence times of component's failure. First, this model was used extensively in the field of biomedicine. Recently, the application of this model in the reliability engineering field has increased. Generally, the application of the PHM is limited by the case where one treats the replacement of the component by another at the time of repair (as good as new).
Let t denote
The proposed PHM
As it is indicated in the preceding paragraph, the PHM enables us to integrate factors that influence the failure rate. In this paper, CM is regarded as an influencing factor. Let ZMC denote the covariate that represents CM and βMC the number the defines the size of its influence.
Contrary to what is usually applied to the β estimation, we will not calculate a global β for all the system, but a local one for each component. This estimation is based on the number of carried out corrective actions
The system reliability estimation
As we have indicated in previous paragraphs, the reliability of each component is calculated as [18]h0 is the baseline hazard function; zCM the variable that designs the covariate representing the CM; βCM the factor that defines the CM effect.
In this paper, the studied system is a multi-state one. The estimation of its reliability is based on the universal generating function (UGF) that presents some advantages in optimization problems.
Use of ant colony in preventive maintenance optimization domain
Samrout et al. [9] proposed an algorithm (ACS1) inspired form the ant colony system to optimize the Tp vector research procedure [9]. Show clearly the efficiency of this algorithm. We will briefly introduce here the ACS1 algorithm.
Overview of the system reliability calculus method
The overview of the method is as follows:
Step 1: Let Nc be the total component's number, i=1, i is the component number.
Step 2: S=0, S is a variable.
Step 3: Calculate X, the time to failure by applying Eq. (7), S=S+X1.
Step 4: If S>Ti (Ti is the PM date), calculate the appropriate factor for the ith component by applying Eq. (10).
Step 5: , calculate the ith component reliability by applying Eq. (12), i=i+1.
Step 6: If i>Nc, go to step 9 else go to step 2.
Else
Step 7: Calculate mCM by
The cost calculation and the action choice
The cost is equal to the sum of actions costs applied during the PM, as well as the production cost lost because of the system unavailability.
As for the PM action's choice, for each component, the action that maximizes the following expression is chosen as the preventive action to be done:
In this expression, the extended life of the component due to the jth action is ;
Cj is the cost generated by choosing the jth action; t0(j) the component age
Case study
To evaluate the impact of the integration of the CM effect on the PM planning, a comparison is proposed between the costs generated by a maintenance policy taking into account this factor and others without this hypothesis (supposing this effect does not affect the components, i.e. they remain “as bad as old”).
To establish these comparisons, a structure made by 10 components (see Fig. 4) is considered. This system is formed of parallel–series components. Each component is characterized by its
Conclusion
This paper proposes a new method that allows taking the CM effect into consideration while planning the PM policy. This method consists of calculating the number of applied CMs and their efficiency. The age reduction technique was used to determine the “dynamic” number of applied corrective actions. A linear model is later used to estimate the suitable β.
The CM on the failure rate of the components and consequently on the global system is often neglected in the PM context. The proposed model
Acknowledgments
The authors are grateful to the anonymous referees for their constructive and helpful comments that have improved this article.
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