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Anthropogenic nickel supply, demand, and associated energy and water use

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Highlights

  • Our scenario results suggest that global nickel demand will increase by 215–350% by 2050.

  • The scenario with the highest prospective demand is Equitability World.

  • Nickel demand could be met until at least 2050 given known geological resources.

  • We provide estimates on the energy and water required for nickel production in 2050.

Abstract

Concerns about the long-run availability of metals have led to speculation that resources that have traditionally been available may become increasingly scarce in the future. To investigate this possibility in the case of nickel, we have built upon the history of nickel flows into use for the period 1988 to the present to develop plausible scenarios for the potential future supply and demand of nickel for the planet, and the associated energy and water use. As in other work, these scenarios are not predictions, but rather stories of possible futures that have the purpose of providing perspective and contemplating policy options. We report herein on our results for nickel supply and demand under four scenarios. We find that calculated nickel demand increases by 140–175% by 2025 and 215–350% by 2050, depending on the scenario. The scenario with the highest prospective demand is termed Equitability World, a scenario of transition to a world of more equitable values and institutions. From the perspective of the results for the four scenarios, we conclude that nickel demands could be met until at least 2050 given known geological nickel resources. The energy and water required for nickel production are anticipated to increase to as much as 0.3% and 0.035% of projected 2050 overall global energy and water demands.

Introduction

Metals are used in most modern technologies either as necessary constituents or to enhance technological efficiencies. Nickel is among the metals used extensively in a number of important applications, including buildings and infrastructure, transportation, industrial machinery, appliances, and metals goods. In these uses, often in the form of stainless steel or superalloys, nickel’s corrosion resistance, strength, and high-temperature stability are particularly valued. In recent years increases in global population and economic growth have been associated with an increase in the demand for metals. (Nickel production more than doubled in the past 20 years (from 1040 Gg in 1995–2280 Gg in 2015 (USGS, 1997, USGS, 2017). Concerns about the long-run availability of metals have led to speculation that nickel resources that have traditionally been available may become increasingly scarce in the future (e.g., Yang, 2009, Kerr, 2012).

Economic nickel resources are found in two types of ores: sulfides and laterites. Nickel resources have traditionally been primarily produced from sulfide ores. With increasing demand, however, an increasing amount is being produced from laterite ores, leading to an increase in the energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated with nickel production due to the more complex processing required for laterites (Mudd, 2010). In addition, there is concern related to the energy and water requirements to produce metals (Norgate, 2010), and to the associated environmental impacts (UNEP, 2013). In this regard, the global energy consumption for the principal primary metals (iron, aluminum, copper, manganese, zinc, lead, and nickel) is currently (2012) about 10% of the total primary energy production (Fizaine and Court, 2015).

A number of previous scenario studies have attempted to assess the future demand for metals (Binder et al., 2006, van der Voet et al., 2002, Elshkaki et al., 2005, Gerst, 2009, Hatayama et al., 2010, McLellan et al., 2016, Pauliuk et al., 2012, Liu et al., 2013, Elshkaki and Van der Voet, 2006, Stamp et al., 2014). Many of these researches have, however, been limited in their general emphasis on specific technologies rather than on more general uses. In addition, none follow from a foundational set of scenarios generated by specialists in such disciplines as demography, economics, and assessments of industrial limitations and opportunities.

In this paper, in contrast, we investigate the potential future supply and demand for all principal uses of nickel and the associated energy and water use, based on the history of nickel flows into use for the period 1988 to the present. As in other work, the resulting scenarios are not predictions, but rather stories of possible futures. Their purpose is to provide perspective and contemplate policy initiatives that respond to developmental alternatives. The four scenarios are described in some detail in the Supplementary Information. In brief, however, the Market World scenario essentially posits that the newly wealthy will wish to acquire possessions similar to those of the existing wealthy, and that market forces will enable that to happen. The Toward Resilience scenario is similar except that government policies more respectful of renewable energy and the environment will be in force, with potential implications for related material demand. The Security Foremost scenario tilts toward confrontation rather than cooperation, with a consequent reduction in international commerce. Finally, the Equitability World scenario aims toward a more collaborative and inclusive world. This latter scenario is the one most closely aligned with the UN Sustainable Development Goals (United Nations, 2015).

Section snippets

Historic nickel demand

The use of nickel for industrial, commercial, and consumer purposes is widespread in the global economy, and has been so for a number of decades (Reck et al., 2008). Nickel’s major uses have significant technological momentum, and a substantial degree of substitution by other metals over the short and medium terms is unlikely (Graedel et al., 2015). In situations such as this, where the past appears to be a reasonably reliable guide to the future, regression analysis is a useful starting point.

Future nickel demand

We calculate the total demand for nickel from 2010 through 2050 in the four scenarios, and nickel demand in different industrial sectors for the years 2010, 2025, and 2050 to be as shown in Figs. 4a and 4b. (Note that in the case of nickel demand, the results of the Market World and Toward Resilience scenarios are nearly the same, so they appear atop one another on the figure.)

We find the total demand for nickel in 2050 compared with that in 2010 to be 260% (MW), 265% (TR), 210% (SF), and 315%

Conclusions

This study has developed and utilized four scenarios for the demand and supply of nickel and the associated energy and water required for nickel production. The most significant conclusions of the analysis are

· The demand for nickel is anticipated to increase by between 140 and 175% by 2025 and between 215 and 350% by 2050, depending on the scenario.

· The demand for nickel is found to be highest in the Equitability World scenario (a world of increased affluence, collaboration, and inclusivity)

Acknowledgements

We thank the Nickel Institute and the United Nations Environment Programme for helpful discussions and for financial support for this study. We also thank two anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.

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