What if São Paulo (Brazil) would like to become a renewable and endogenous energy -based megacity?
Introduction
Cities are acknowledged as responsible for around 64% of global primary energy use, which accounted for 70% of CO2 global emissions in 2013 [1]. The cities role becomes even more prominent with the rise of megacities (cities with 10 million or more inhabitants), mainly located in developing countries1 [2]. Given the magnitude of cities’ impact, urban regions are seen as a potential locus to make the required energy system shift towards decarbonization, increasing energy access to all the urban population, improving inhabitants’ well-being [3], mitigating global emissions, and reducing energy demand through local-scale energy system planning and policy initiatives [4].
Cities have an enormous potential to reduce environmental pressure while enhancing well-being for their inhabitants. This can be made by decoupling cities metabolism from the use of non-renewable energy resources and inefficient processes as part of a transition to a sustainable economy [8], acting on both the demand and supply sides of the Urban Energy System (UES) [5]. According to Rutter and Keirstead (2012), the UES is the combined processes of acquiring and using energy to meet the energy service demands of an urban region [3].
Current scientific literature on UES mostly focuses on some components, as specific economic sectors, or specific end-use energy services, or even specific energy technologies for only one end-use energy service. Regarding the focus on individual economic sectors, examples include works on transports [6] and buildings [7,8]. Examples addressing specific urban energy end-uses include the focus on urban heat demand [9], building’s heat demand [10] and lighting [11], while works focusing specific technology performance regarding energy savings include smart grids [12], net-zero energy buildings [13], and electric vehicles. Electric mobility in urban areas has had special emphasis, namely on energy management strategies for connecting electric vehicles in urban roads [14], fuel and greenhouse gases (GHG) and other pollutant emission savings for light-duty passenger vehicles [15], and cost-benefit analysis for its deployment [16].
Nevertheless, there are few published studies analyzing the whole UES in an integrated approach. Although there is an increasing number of scientific literature applying optimization energy models at the urban scale, (e.g. Ref. [17], analyzing how to optimally integrate renewable energy sources (RES) in UES, or [18,19] proposing a bottom-up supply-demand model to assess the optimal performance of UES), there is still lack of literature regarding the use of simulation models to integrate energy system at the city level.
Since generally, fossil fuels consumption by cities is acknowledge as a major cause of climate disruption [20], there is a growing interest on increasing cities’ energy self-sufficiency potential by promoting a sustainable energy system transition [21]. However, little is known on current megacities’ UES regarding urban energy demand needs per sector and end-use. Likewise, there is a lack of knowledge regarding megacities’ detailed energy supply profile, and particularly their endogenous potential. In this paper, endogenous energy resources refer to the energy resources available within the perimeter of the considered urban area, that include solar, wind, biomass, local hydro possibilities, waste, industrial heat and power.
In this context, some authors underline the need for integrated urban energy infrastructure planning to better assess the energy supply potential of urban areas [22]. In particular, there is no published work modeling the UES of a megacity using a simulation model, nor addressing how its energy supply and demand can be made more sustainable by harvesting its endogenous RES. This article seeks to fill this gap using a city energy system model for the case study of the São Paulo megacity in Brazil applied for the period from 2014 to 2030.
The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) energy simulation model, [23] was applied for modeling São Paulo UES in order to characterize the megacity’s current and future energy system concerning energy supply and demand. The model was applied to evaluate possible energy futures, and the goal of the paper is to explore, within the context of a megacity, the possibility for the endogenous and RES energy increase share by 2030 and, by selecting urban energy policies and strategies, simulate the potential for (i) energy savings, (ii) distributed electricity generation increase (by promoting RES and endogenous resources), and (iii) GHG emissions reduction. The paper also provides insights for policy and decision-makers on moving towards a more self-sufficient and socially more inclusive city by explicitly considering improved energy access to 11% of the São Paulo’s population currently living in subnormal housing.
The paper is structured as follows: section 2 describes the methodology used, including basic model description, scenario design, formulation of policy scenarios, and the relevant data used. Results and discussion are presented in Section 3 together with a summary of the main results regarding the city final and primary energy consumption, changes in the urban power sector, GHG emissions reduction and increase in urban RES and endogenous share. Section 4 concludes the paper.
Section snippets
Material and methods
LEAP is a widely used energy-economy model both for simulation or optimization purposes. It builds energy scenarios using integrated planning and bottom-up data on energy demand and primary energy transformation (transmission and distribution, primary energy conversion, and energy resource extraction data can be also added). LEAP is flexible regarding its application level, including region, country, state or local level [23]. The model can be used to estimate GHG emissions from energy use and
Emission data inputs
LEAP_SP considers the following direct GHG and air pollutant emissions from energy use and generation within the city: particular matter (PM), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), aldehydes, nitrous oxide (N2O), carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). This means that the model does not consider CO2 emissions of products and energy carriers imported into the city, except for electricity.
Since this paper considers the energy system inside
Modelled scenarios design
For the purpose of our analysis, seven scenarios were developed, a Reference scenario (REF) and more six along two main socioeconomic pathways: (i) Business as Usual (BAU) and (ii) Better Energy Services (BET), as presented in Table 3.
The REF scenario was developed for calibration purposes of the LEAP_SP model. The REF scenario does not comprise policies of any kind, and consequently the services share and technology stocks, as well as energy policies till 2030 refer as the base year. The
Results and discussion
The results gathered from the modeling exercise were analyzed for the seven scenarios using five key performance indicators, pointing to the most relevant aspects of the city energy system performance and characteristics, namely: 1) city final energy consumption (FEC), total and per sector; 2) city electricity generation; 3) city endogenous energy share, considered as an indicator to achieve the city energy self-sufficiency, defined in terms of city local energy carriers (endogenous resource)
Conclusion
This article presented the LEAP energy system model for the city of São Paulo (Brazil) and its application to assess possible pathways to change the megacity’s current energy system by 2030. Seven scenarios were modelled considering the urban energy system in a holistic approach and paying special attention to the urban potential for endogenous energy resource use. The article estimates the impacts of each of these scenarios on: (i) energy savings; (ii) share of distributed electricity
Acknowledgment
We acknowledge the financial support provided by the Brazilian agency CAPES through the ’Programa de Doutorado-sanduíche no Exterior (PDSE)’, to the Erasmus Mundus, BE MUNDUS Program, and to Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), process nº 2015/03804-9. Also, Heaps, C.G., and Stockholm Environment Institute for providing enough license time to the development of the research. Finally, we would like to thank the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments.
References (107)
- et al.
A brief history and the possible future of urban energy systems
Energy Policy
(2012) - et al.
Cost optimal urban energy systems planning in the context of national energy policies: a case study for the city of Basel
Energy Policy (Accepted)
(2017) - et al.
Urban self-sufficiency through optimised ecosystem service demand. A utopian perspective from European cities
Futures
(2015) - et al.
Interplay between ethanol and electric vehicles as low carbon mobility options for passengers in the municipality of São Paulo
Int. J. Sustain. Transp.
(2017) - et al.
Impact of service sector loads on renewable resource integration
Appl. Energy
(2017) - et al.
The role of district heating in achieving sustainable cities: comparative analysis of different heat scenarios for Geneva
Energy Procedia
(2017) - et al.
Characterization of building thermal energy consumption at the urban scale
Energy Procedia
(2016) - et al.
Optimization based planning of urban energy systems: retrofitting a Chinese industrial park as a case-study
Energy
(2017) Regenerative design of existing buildings for net-zero energy use
Procedia Eng.
(2015)- et al.
Hierarchical control strategies for energy management of connected hybrid electric vehicles in urban roads
Transp. Res. Part C Emerg. Technol.
(2016)
Well-to-wheels energy consumption and emissions of electric vehicles: mid-term implications from real-world features and air pollution control progress
Appl. Energy
Climate change mitigation and deployment of electric vehicles in urban areas
Renew. Energy
Optimal day-ahead scheduling of integrated urban energy systems
Appl. Energy
An integrated supply-demand model for the optimization of energy flow in the urban system
J. Clean. Prod.
An integrated planning framework for the development of sustainable and resilient cities - the case of the InSMART project
Procedia Eng.
Governing cities for sustainable energy: the UK case
Cities
Urban passenger transport energy saving and emission reduction potential: a case study for Tianjin, China
Energy Convers. Manag.
Integrated energy and carbon modeling with a decision support system: policy scenarios for low-carbon city development in Bangkok
Energy Policy
Sectoral energy-carbon nexus and low-carbon policy alternatives: a case study of Ningbo, China
J. Clean. Prod.
Study on integrated simulation model of Economic, Energy and Environment Safety system under the low-carbon policy in Beijing
Procedia Environ. Sci.
Jevons’ Paradox revisited: the evidence for backfire from improved energy efficiency
Energy Policy
The energy metabolism of megacities
Appl. Energy
Refuse recovered biomass fuel from municipal solid waste. A life cycle assessment
Appl. Energy
World Energy Outlook 2016
World Population Prospects: the 2017 Revision
Development of prototypical buildings for urban scale building energy modeling: a reduced order energy model approach
Sci. Technol. Built Environ.
WLAN based energy efficient smart city design
Microsyst. Technol.
Reducing Energy Dependence in European Cities
Energy Technology Perspectives 2016
LEAP Data Requirements for Energy Planning and Mitigation Assessment
Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) System
A review of energy system models
Int. J. Energy Sect. Manag.
Alternative scenarios for the development of a low-carbon city: a case study of Beijing, China
Energies
Plano de Gestão Integrada de Resíduos Sólidos da Cidade de São Paulo
Plano Municipal de Saneamento Básico de São Paulo, 1–Texto
Plano diretor estratégico do município de são paulo
Plano de Mobilidade de São Paulo, 2015 - PlanMob 2015
Brasil, Censo 2010
Procel-info, Pesquisa de Posse de Equipamentos E Habitos de Uso - Ano Base 2005 (Região Sudeste)
Anuário Estatístico Operacional- 2016
Deinfo, infocidade webpage
São Paulo Econ. Data. Folders of demography, economy and housing.
Classificação Nacional de Atividades Econômicas
Guiding Principles for City Climate Action Planning
São Paulo City Map. Geographic Data Base
Anuário Estatístico de Energéticos por Município no Estado de São Paulo - 2008 ano base 2007
Anuário Estatístico de Energéticos por Município no Estado de São Paulo - 2009 ano base 2008
Anuário Estatístico de Energéticos por Município no Estado de São Paulo - 2010 ano base 2009
Anuário Estatístico de Energéticos por Município no Estado de São Paulo - 2011 ano base 2010
Anuário Estatístico de Energéticos por Município no Estado de São Paulo - 2012 ano base 2011
Anuário Estatístico de Energéticos por Município no Estado de São Paulo - 2013 ano base 2012
Cited by (16)
Low-carbon energy policies benefit climate change mitigation and air pollutant reduction in megacities: An empirical examination of Shenzhen, China
2023, Science of the Total EnvironmentUrban emissions and land use efficiency scenarios towards effective climate mitigation in urban systems
2022, Renewable and Sustainable Energy ReviewsCitation Excerpt :Second, urban land use or built-up area scenarios should involve analytical linkages to energy or emissions. The studies satisfying these criteria are summarized in Table 2 [40–56], none of which utilized the SSP-RCP framework. The closest study focused on a zero emissions scenario for Beijing by 2050 [43] within a national energy system model that has certain alignment with the carbon budget of a 1.5 °C global warming scenario [45].
Urban regeneration plans: Bridging the gap between planning and design energy districts
2022, EnergyCitation Excerpt :The top-down methodology, on the other hand, is based on the criteria of economic balance and allows to verify the effectiveness of the policies adopted with respect to an objective. Studies using a bottom-up approach are, for instance, Refs. [6–12]; others who use top down ratings are [13,14]. Most of these studies underline that the increasing penetration of fluctuating RES causes excesses of electric energy production when the electricity demand is lower, and especially in the summer when PV production is higher [15,16].
Pathways to electric mobility integration in the Italian automotive sector
2021, EnergyCitation Excerpt :LEAP is a software developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) to simulate energy policies and climate change mitigation [31]. The platform is widely used in the literature with application to different sectors, such as hotel sector [32], thermal power plants [33], oil sands production [34] and renewable energy [35]. The proposed methodology can be easily applied to other countries and developed on other simulation or optimization modelling platforms.
Addressing rising energy needs of megacities – Case study of Greater Cairo
2021, Energy and BuildingsCitation Excerpt :The other Asian megacities have fewer papers available in literature and they address mainly transport strategy [19,20], energy related CO2 emissions [21] and urban solid waste management. Regarding the South American cities, less studies are found in the literature: only few papers address Sao Paulo’s urban sustainable development [37–39], and transportation [35,36]. So far, there is not any study available in literature analyzing the energy system of any African megacity.