Research articleDecarbonizing the transport sector: The promethean responsibility of Nicaragua☆
Introduction
The transport sector is a large energy consumer and, as such, its decarbonization is a crucial step on the road to sustainable development. Global energy demand in the transport sector has grown, on average, by approximately 2% annually since 2005 (IEA, 2016) and was responsible for 23% of the energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2015 (Ibid).
Oil and its derivatives are the main sources of energy used for transportation (IEA, 2017, p. 47). Unfortunately, presently, the transport sector has no scalable, economic alternative to these fuels. There are, nevertheless, three options to integrate cleaner energy sources into the transport sector:
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Liquid biofuels: These liquid fuels are commonly derived from crops or biomass through a process known as Biomass-to-Liquid (BTL). Biofuels are the most well-established renewable alternative to the conventional fuels used by the transport sector. Since they can be mixed with oil derivatives (gasoline and diesel), biofuels have already been successfully integrated into the current global fuel system (Pearson and Turner, 2014). Ethanol and biodiesel provided approximately 3% of the world's energy requirement for the transport sector in 2015 (IEA, 2017, p. 47). Nevertheless, there are threats to the production of these fuels, namely biomass being likely a scarce resource in the future, a shortage of arable land for biofuel production given that these fuels compete with food crops for land, and low oil prices challenging the investment in these fuels (Connolly et al., 2014).
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Biogas or biomethane: Biogas can be produced from feedstocks such as wastewater, manure, industrial and municipal organic waste or energy crops through a microbiological process. A synergy between biogas and electricity (through biogas hydrogenation) can be established through a process known as power-to-gas (PTG) generating upgraded or purified biogas (Connolly et al., 2014; Sterner, 2009). Upgraded or purified biogas is referred to as biomethane and, since it is of the quality of natural gas, it can be integrated into the natural gas grid or used in natural gas vehicles or dual-fuel vehicles (IRENA, 2017). Natural gas vehicles produce fewer emissions than conventional internal combustion vehicles using diesel or gasoline and imply lower fuel costs for the drivers (Ibid). Natural gas covered 3.6% of the world's energy demand for transport in 2015 (IEA, 2017). The main challenges that this alternative face are, nevertheless, the comparatively high feedstock and production costs.
- 3)
Electrification of transport: transport can be electrified through direct electrification, the use of batteries or the use of electricity to produce hydrogen via electrolysis. Trains, light rail, and trams are examples of vehicles using direct electrification. The main limitation with these vehicles is that they require a cable available at all times to feed the power restraining their routes and increasing their investment costs (Connolly et al., 2014). Electric vehicles (EVs) use a battery to store the energy they need, which provides them flexibility and eliminates the route restrictions from directly electrified vehicles. At present, there are electric alternatives to virtually all light-duty vehicles commercially available. EVs can expand the market for renewable energy (RE) by assisting the integration of variable renewable energy (VRE). This increases the flexibility of the energy system and contributes to the stabilization of the grid (i.e., to balancing demand and supply of electricity). Furthermore, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) (Kempton and Tomić, 2005) technology has the potential to turn electric vehicles into distributed generators providing generation capacity at peak hours. Although electricity provided a modest 1.3% of the world's transport energy in 2015 (IEA, 2017, p. 47), it holds a promising potential. Nevertheless, electrifying the transport sector needs to face the high upfront costs of electric vehicles witnessed nowadays, the limits to battery life, a lack of charging infrastructure, and, especially in developing countries, the lack of reliable electricity supply (Block and Brooker, 2016). Furthermore, given that batteries are limited on the amount of energy they can store relative to their weight, they are not a feasible alternative for heavy-duty vehicles, aviation or marine transport (Connolly et al., 2014). In such cases, a high-energy density fuel is necessary. Hydrogen can increase the energy density of some biofuels. The use of hydrogen as an energy carrier and produced via electrolysis using surplus electricity from variable renewable sources enables a synergy between the power and the transport sector and pave the way to the electrification of transport systems (Schemme et al., 2017). Power-to-fuel (PTF) and Power-to-Chemical (PTC) technologies enable the production of electrofuels and base chemicals from hydrogen that can replace fossil fuels in heavy-duty vehicles, aviation, or marine transport.
The scientific community has reviewed the role of transport policies and technological advances such as those mentioned in the previous paragraphs in the search for low-carbon transport systems. For example, Martínez-Jaramillo et al., 2017 evaluated the impact of the implementation of transport policies such as telecommuting, a car-free day, and free public transportation during off-peak hours in Medellín, Colombia. The study showed that combining efficient mass transportation and demand-stabilizing transport policies can provide environmental benefits and energy savings. Their most significant contribution is the identification of complementary transport policies as potential environmental and energy mitigation strategies in the developing world. Pisoni et al. (2019) evaluated how urban mobility plans based mostly on behavioral measures affect air quality finding a reasonable improvement after the implementation of such plans and encouraging future research on the impact of electro-mobility options on air quality. Aldenius (2018) analyzed the role of public transport in the transition to a more sustainable transport system in Sweden concluding that different organizational approaches applied to different types of traffic enable the integration of alternative fuels to fossil fuels in the transport system. However, this integration requires the active role of local governments supporting funding schemes and demonstration programs. Silva et al. (2012) assessed the impact of the subway system in Saõ Paulo, Brazil on air quality finding environmental and health benefits. Nakamoto and Kagawa (2018) assessed the impact of Japan's vehicle safety inspection system on CO2 emissions and the vehicles' economic lifetime concluding that this policy is counterproductive for the purpose of reducing emissions. Dominković et al. (2018) reviewed clean transport options available in the scientific literature, namely biofuels, hydrogen, electrofuels, and electricity and assessed the resources needed as well as the impact of these alternatives on the scale of the EU. The authors concluded that electric modes of transport have the largest benefits and should be the main pathway to decarbonization of the transport sector. Similarly, Hansen et al. (2019) analyzed alternatives for converting the German transport system to renewable energy including electric vehicles, biofuels, hydrogen, and electrofuels. The authors concluded that a combined implementation of these alternatives, as well as synergies between the power, transport, industrial, and heating sectors, make a transition to 100% renewable energy in Germany in 2050 a feasible goal. Zhang et al. (2016) analyzed potential carbon taxes and their impact on the choice of transportation fuel and CO2 emissions in the USA and China. They found that although liquid fuels will continue to dominate, biofuels and electrification have a significant potential to contribute to the decarbonization of the transport sector in those countries. Finally, Child et al. (2017) reviewed the role of electric vehicles and electrofuels, not only on achieving a low-carbon transport system in the Åland islands but on increasing the participation of variable renewable energy in the energy system. Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) batteries and electrofuels in the form of PTG technologies were identified as the most feasible alternatives to store excess electricity, thereby greatly reducing the need to import electricity.
This paper responds to the search for alternatives to decarbonize and integrate renewable energy into the Nicaraguan transport sector based on transport pathways previously studied by the scientific literature in other geographical regions. The challenges currently faced by the Nicaraguan transport sector jeopardize the country's commitment to transform its current energy matrix to one mainly based on renewable energy. The case of Nicaragua has not yet been revised by the scientific literature; however, it represents the situation of many small economies that are oil-dependent despite having sufficient domestic renewable energy resources to meet their energy needs. The findings resulting from this study could provide significant contributions to policymakers, governments, and development agencies, or become a blueprint for developing nations aiming to a low-carbon economy.
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the implementation of a mass public transport system in the Nicaraguan capital, Managua, where 50% of the country's vehicle fleet operates,
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the electrification of the national vehicle fleet by replacing conventional internal combustion engine vehicles with commercially-available electric vehicles, and
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the local production of electrofuels from the gasification of biomass and CO2 recycling from power plants using fuel oil and industrial processes such as cement production.
To depict the challenges faced by the Nicaraguan transport sector and to understand the need to decarbonize it, this section describes the current situation of the sector.
The transport sector in Nicaragua is the second largest energy-consuming economic sector in the country and is exclusively fueled by oil derivatives (MEM, 2016a, p. 25). Fuel consumption grew at an average annual rate of 2.8% between 2002 and 2014 (MEM, 2016b, p. 46). Diesel was the most commonly-used fuel by the 646,935 vehicles registered in the country in 2015 (MTI, 2016, p. 16). Despite having an installed capacity of 340,000 L/day of ethanol from sugarcane bagasse (SER San Antonio, 2017), Nicaragua has no local consumption of biofuels. The production is entirely exported due to the lack of a biofuel blending mandate incentivizing the consumption of these fuels.
The national vehicle fleet grew at an average annual rate of 7.8% between 2009 and 2015, whereas the national road network grew at an average annual rate of 1.63% in the same period (MTI, 2016). Moreover, the vast majority of vehicles on Nicaraguan roads do not have emission control systems and are, thus, incapable of meeting strict emission levels (even when the vehicles are in good mechanical condition) such as those implemented in the European Union or the US. In addition, an outdated public transport system exacerbates the environmental impact, inefficiency and high energy consumption of the sector. The regulations set out in chapter 8, “Prevention of Environmental Pollution”, of law bill N° 431 for Vehicular Traffic and Traffic Infractions Administration (Nicaragua, 2003) neither guarantee the progressive reduction of emissions nor incentivize the renewal of the vehicle fleet. These current regulations are comparable to standards such as the EURO 1 and those prior to US EPA Tier 1, also known as Tier 0. As a result, the transport sector is a significant source of GHG emissions, and as such, poses a critical environmental and development threat for Nicaragua.
To overcome this threat, Nicaragua could seize the untapped energy efficiency potential in the transport sector. Energy efficiency measures including a shift between transport modes (e.g., promoting the use of public transport over private vehicles) and a change of the fuels used (e.g., electricity instead of diesel or gasoline) might be a cost-effective manner for the country to reverse the growing trend of energy consumption. The prevailing reliance on imported oil as well as the current levels of GHG emissions would be hindered. Furthermore, by exploiting the sustainable use of indigenous natural resources, Nicaragua could incentivize its economy, generate jobs and lower production costs across different industries.
The Nicaraguan capital represents an important opportunity to tap this energy efficiency potential. Managua is the commercial and industrial hub of the country and accounts for approx. 50% of the Nicaraguan vehicle fleet. Fuel savings here would represent a significant benefit for the country. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (2017a) performed an assessment of the current situation in Managua and suggested the implementation of a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system, an Automated Guideway Transit (AGT) system, and a Light Rail Train (LRT) system for the Nicaraguan capital by 2040 as described in Table 1. This would improve the efficiency and reliability of the local public transport system as well as provide economic, social and environmental benefits. Surveys performed as part of this study concluded that 63% of private car users are willing to use a modern mass transport service, and 61% of public transport users are willing to pay up to 7 times more for a more comfortable, reliable and efficient transport system. Moreover, JICA's recommendations include a rearrangement and update of the public transport routes to increase communication and connectivity across the city and disincentivize private vehicle ownership, especially in the recent “commuter towns” currently poorly covered by the outdated public transport system. It is suggested that city buses become feeder buses, taking passengers to transfer points where they can make an onward journey with the new mass transport system. This proposal represents an opportunity to reduce pollution from vehicular congestion, curtail fuel consumption, and initiate the decarbonization of the Nicaraguan transport sector.
Section snippets
Methods
As mentioned earlier, the transport pathways explored in this paper to decarbonize the Nicaraguan transport sector are based on previous scientific literature, yet they also include current technological advancements and the recommendations of JICA's study (JICA, 2017b). They were chosen on the basis of their potential to overcome the environmental and development challenges currently experienced in Nicaragua and were simulated in a series of energy scenarios constructed using an energy model.
Results and discussion
This section describes the outcomes of scenarios B through D. The results of scenario A were used in the previous section to validate the model and, thus, will not be discussed in this section.
Conclusions
This paper examined means of achieving the decarbonization of the Nicaraguan transport sector, which is currently exclusively fueled by oil derivatives. Integrating renewable energy into this sector remains a challenge. This study simulated a mass public transport system for Managua, Nicaragua's capital, and a shift to electric vehicles and electrofuels. The results of the simulations indicate that transport planning and increased investment in public transport infrastructure are crucial
Acknowledgments
The author would like to thank Dr. Jonathan Mole for his help during the preparation of this manuscript as well as the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments and suggestions.
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