A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010

Abstract

Our panel data set on educational attainment has been updated for 146 countries from 1950 to 2010. The data are disaggregated by sex and by 5-year age intervals. We have improved the accuracy of estimation by using information from consistent census data, disaggregated by age group, along with new estimates of mortality rates and completion rates by age and education level. We compare the estimates with our previous ones (Barro and Lee, 2001) and alternative measures (Cohen and Soto, 2007). Our estimates of educational attainment provide a reasonable proxy for the stock of human capital for a broad group of countries and should be useful for a variety of empirical work.

Introduction

Many observers have emphasized the crucial importance of human capital, particularly as attained through education, to economic progress (Lucas, 1988, Mankiw et al., 1992). An abundance of well-educated people goes along with a high level of labor productivity. It also implies larger numbers of more skilled workers and greater ability to absorb advanced technology from developed countries. The level and distribution of educational attainment also influence social outcomes, such as child mortality, fertility, education of children, and income distribution (see for example Barro and Lee, 1994, Breierova and Duflo, 2004, Cutler et al., 2006, De Gregorio and Lee, 2002).

There have been a number of attempts to measure educational attainment across countries to quantify the relationship between it and economic and social outcome variables. Earlier empirical studies used school enrollment ratios or literacy rates (Barro, 1991, Mankiw et al., 1992, Romer, 1990). But although widely available, these data do not adequately measure the aggregate stock of human capital available contemporaneously as an input to production.

Our earlier studies (1993, 1996, and 2001) filled this data gap by constructing measures of educational attainment for a broad group of countries. The figures were constructed at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2000. The data showed the distribution of educational attainment of the adult population over age 15 and over age 25 by sex at seven levels of schooling. We also constructed measures of average years of schooling at all levels—primary, secondary, and tertiary—for each country and for regions in the world.

In this paper, we update and expand the data set on educational attainment. We extend our previous estimates from 1950 to 2010, and provide more, improved data disaggregated by sex and age. The data are broken down into 5-year age intervals, and the coverage has now expanded to 146 countries by adding 41, including 11 former Soviet republics. The accuracy of estimation has also improved by incorporating recently available census/survey observations.

The new data set improves on the earlier by using more information and better methodology. We construct new estimates by using information from survey/census data, disaggregated by age group. Previously, we adopted a perpetual inventory method, using the census/survey observations on the educational attainment of the adult population group over age 15 or over age 25 as benchmark stocks and new school entrants as flows that added to the stocks with an appropriate time lag. The flow estimates were estimated using information on school–enrollment ratios and population structure over time. But this method is subject to bias due to inaccuracy in estimated enrollment ratios and in benchmark censuses. In the current estimation, we reduce measurement error by using observations in 5-year age intervals for the previous or subsequent 5-year periods, as in Cohen and Soto (2007). We also construct new estimates of (a) survival/mortality rates by age and by education; and (b) completion ratios by educational attainment and by age group. These measures help improve the accuracy of the backward- and forward-estimation procedure.

The data set improvements address most of the concerns raised by critics, including De La Fuente and Doménech (2006) and Cohen and Soto (2007). They noted that the previous data set of Barro and Lee, 1993, Barro and Lee, 2001 shows implausible time-series profiles of educational attainment for some countries. The new procedures have resolved these problems.

In the next section, we summarize the data and the methodology for constructing the estimates of educational attainment and discuss the modifications that have been made in the present update. In Section 3, we highlight the main features of the new data set. In Section 4, we compare the estimates with our previous ones (Barro and Lee, 2001) and alternative measures by Cohen and Soto (2007). Section 5 presents our conclusions.